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There is no reason to believe that the existence of a sunshade would provide increased motivation to use more fossil fuels. Those feedback mechanisms are uncoup

There is no reason to believe that the existence of a sunshade would provide increased motivation to use more fossil fuels. Those feedback mechanisms are uncoupled. People use fossil fuels because they are cheap and available, the sunshade does nothing to affect their cheapness and availability.

strainer 7y ago
I expect this kind of sunshade is inevitable now and that pressure is mounting to build it, and it is extremely fortunate that a capability has developed to build it very affordably (for a global project) and rapidly (at a push - 1 year!). Its likely just a matter of years or decades before warming events and modelling generate enough rational alarm to empower a global body to take control of global and continental solar insolation levels. Many thousands of individual sunshades can tilt using low power gyros, even in hourly timeframes to alter exactly when and where shading is applied to Earths regions and live weather systems, and also use a long term light-sail effect to keep themselves appropriately positioned while floating through the orbit-ally unstable Lagrange region. Unfortunately even recognition of a capability to build such a thing will certainly reduce pressure to rapidly de-carbonize, even the acidification of the oceans is hailed as solvable now by putting vast but affordable quantities of mined olivine them. Human depredation, mis-consumption and mis-appreciation of natural systems (as well as each other) remain gravely destructive and tragic modern persuasions until the narrative is healed.
- ncmncm 7y ago
  Anything that could be achieved with a sunshade could be done thousands of times more cheaply by putting reflectors on roofs, on deserts, and on the sea surface. If you imagine putting that much reflector out would be too hard or too expensive, I guarantee lofting even a tiny fraction of it would be overwhelmingly more expensive and difficult.
  - strainer 7y ago
    The physics work out very differently because a lot of different wavelengths, some invisible are absorbed by the atmosphere (co2 and other absorbers) before and after reflecting off the ground. Sunshade designs have been considered viable by expert reviews. Main obstacle has been considered the cost of launching them to L1 estimated at a few trillion dollars. Spacex superheavy system is predicted to shrink that to a few billion dollars - a week or some of the global military budget. It would also need much thicker reflecting material on the ground / at sea to cope with weathering, tearing and pollution. Space is mainly very empty, the shades can be made from surprisingly light materials, and as I described before, the whole thing can be controllable to react to weather events. On ground installations take time an effort to alter.
    - beerandt 7y ago
      It's still a net positive, and assuming shades are deployed, it would at least reduce the number required. Reflectors in on the ground also have the benefit of being controllable.
      - strainer 7y ago
        When solar arrays are located over water they do alot of cooling because without them water reflects very little. Deserts already reflect a great deal of sunlight. Temperate land absorbs a great deal but it is in great demand for agriculture, aforestation and the remaining wildlife. Reflectors in space should be controllable, the power and gyroscopes required to rotate them at a snails pace can be tiny, a small percentage of the mass of the attached shade.
        beerandt 7y ago
        Mostly agree, but: 1) Solar isn't really cooling anything, it's just transferring the heat to the point of use through the grid. 2) There's a lot of square footage of pavement and rooftops before we need to seek out virgin land. 3)Adding any feature to a production of 16 trillion won't be trivial in cost or complexity. Anything besides passive steerage (akin to a solar-windsock) is going to sink the project, IMO. I suspect that once you start adding power, gyros, controls, communication, navigation, etc, it will be more economical/feasable to scale up the size of each deployable shade by 2+ orders of magnitude (4+ by area). Which isn't to say it would be feasible, just more feasible.
pms 7y ago
They are coupled. The consensus among scientists and economists for mitigating global warming is carbon pricing: https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/bxgd5p/single_most_important_stat_on_the_planet_alarm_as/eq6bvl0/ https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/bxgd5p/single_mo... If there is a sunshade, then the need for taxing emissions is reduced, what will directly impact the price of fossil fuels. Personally, I'm terrified by how people here suddenly are so enthusiastic about the sunshade, without even knowing its side effects, when the problem can be solved at its source.
- vinceguidry 7y ago
  If you introduce a coupling, then yeah, they'll be coupled.

strainer 7y ago

I expect this kind of sunshade is inevitable now and that pressure is mounting to build it, and it is extremely fortunate that a capability has developed to build it very affordably (for a global project) and rapidly (at a push - 1 year!). Its likely just a matter of years or decades before warming events and modelling generate enough rational alarm to empower a global body to take control of global and continental solar insolation levels. Many thousands of individual sunshades can tilt using low power gyros, even in hourly timeframes to alter exactly when and where shading is applied to Earths regions and live weather systems, and also use a long term light-sail effect to keep themselves appropriately positioned while floating through the orbit-ally unstable Lagrange region. Unfortunately even recognition of a capability to build such a thing will certainly reduce pressure to rapidly de-carbonize, even the acidification of the oceans is hailed as solvable now by putting vast but affordable quantities of mined olivine them. Human depredation, mis-consumption and mis-appreciation of natural systems (as well as each other) remain gravely destructive and tragic modern persuasions until the narrative is healed.

ncmncm 7y ago
Anything that could be achieved with a sunshade could be done thousands of times more cheaply by putting reflectors on roofs, on deserts, and on the sea surface. If you imagine putting that much reflector out would be too hard or too expensive, I guarantee lofting even a tiny fraction of it would be overwhelmingly more expensive and difficult.
- strainer 7y ago
  The physics work out very differently because a lot of different wavelengths, some invisible are absorbed by the atmosphere (co2 and other absorbers) before and after reflecting off the ground. Sunshade designs have been considered viable by expert reviews. Main obstacle has been considered the cost of launching them to L1 estimated at a few trillion dollars. Spacex superheavy system is predicted to shrink that to a few billion dollars - a week or some of the global military budget. It would also need much thicker reflecting material on the ground / at sea to cope with weathering, tearing and pollution. Space is mainly very empty, the shades can be made from surprisingly light materials, and as I described before, the whole thing can be controllable to react to weather events. On ground installations take time an effort to alter.
  - beerandt 7y ago
    It's still a net positive, and assuming shades are deployed, it would at least reduce the number required. Reflectors in on the ground also have the benefit of being controllable.
    - strainer 7y ago
      When solar arrays are located over water they do alot of cooling because without them water reflects very little. Deserts already reflect a great deal of sunlight. Temperate land absorbs a great deal but it is in great demand for agriculture, aforestation and the remaining wildlife. Reflectors in space should be controllable, the power and gyroscopes required to rotate them at a snails pace can be tiny, a small percentage of the mass of the attached shade.
      - beerandt 7y ago
        Mostly agree, but: 1) Solar isn't really cooling anything, it's just transferring the heat to the point of use through the grid. 2) There's a lot of square footage of pavement and rooftops before we need to seek out virgin land. 3)Adding any feature to a production of 16 trillion won't be trivial in cost or complexity. Anything besides passive steerage (akin to a solar-windsock) is going to sink the project, IMO. I suspect that once you start adding power, gyros, controls, communication, navigation, etc, it will be more economical/feasable to scale up the size of each deployable shade by 2+ orders of magnitude (4+ by area). Which isn't to say it would be feasible, just more feasible.

pms 7y ago

They are coupled. The consensus among scientists and economists for mitigating global warming is carbon pricing: https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/bxgd5p/single_most_important_stat_on_the_planet_alarm_as/eq6bvl0/ https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/bxgd5p/single_mo... If there is a sunshade, then the need for taxing emissions is reduced, what will directly impact the price of fossil fuels. Personally, I'm terrified by how people here suddenly are so enthusiastic about the sunshade, without even knowing its side effects, when the problem can be solved at its source.

vinceguidry 7y ago
If you introduce a coupling, then yeah, they'll be coupled.