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Yes, we've heard this story before. From Nixon's announcement of the Space Shuttle program in 1972: "In the scientific arena, the past decade of experience has
by vannevar 7y ago
Yes, we've heard this story before. From Nixon's announcement of the Space Shuttle program in 1972:
"In the scientific arena, the past decade of experience has taught us that spacecraft are an irreplaceable tool for learning about our near-Earth space environment, the Moon, and the planets, besides being an important aid to our studies of the Sun and stars. In utilizing space to meet needs on Earth, we have seen the tremendous potential of satellites for international communications and world-wide weather forecasting. We are gaining the capability to use satellites as tools in global monitoring and management of nature resources, in agricultural applications, and in pollution control. We can foresee their use in guiding airliners across the oceans and in bringing TV education to wide areas of the world.
However, all these possibilities, and countless others with direct and dramatic bearing on human betterment, can never be more than fractionally realized so long as every single trip from Earth to orbit remains a matter of special effort and staggering expense. This is why commitment to the Space Shuttle program is the right step for America to take, in moving out from our present beach-head in the sky to achieve a real working presence in space - because the Space Shuttle will give us routine access to space by sharply reducing costs in dollars and preparation time.
The new system will differ radically from all existing booster systems, in that most of this new system will be recovered and used again and again - up to 100 times. The resulting economies may bring operating costs down as low as one-tenth of those present launch vehicles."
- gpm 7y agoThe logic is as valid now as it was then. The biggest difference between the two is that we know we failed to make the system that time, and we think we might succeed this time. There's good reason to think that SpaceX might succeed where NASA failed. Less politics interfering. A reward system that is actually aligned with results. Decades (47 years since that announcement) of technological advancement. Experience with re-usable rockets.
- vannevar 7y agoIt's true that we do know more, but that's reflected in the even more ambitious promises being made. SpaceX will almost certainly improve greatly on the Shuttle, but will also just as certainly fail to live up to the projections being made for it now, before the first flight. And my guess is that it will fall short by quite a bit, these are pretty big claims being made. I think the Starship will become obsolete, for instance, before it ever gets to a flight rate of once per day.
- growlist 7y ago> I think the Starship will become obsolete yes, SpaceX will make it obsolete with Starship Ultra-Heavy, just as they are attempting to make Falcon 9/Heavy obsolete with Starship...