4 ms·
To put this in context we're talking about 4 to 5 mm per year of sea level rise on average globally for the next several decades. Some areas will be more and s
by poutine 7y ago
To put this in context we're talking about 4 to 5 mm per year of sea level rise on average globally for the next several decades.
Some areas will be more and some less as sea level rise isn't uniform (for instance isostatic rebound on the west coast of Canada will result in a net sea level drop in some areas).
Mitigation will be key as even if we eliminated carbon emissions completely today there's already committed warming in the system that will result in sea level rise through the century. We're just talking about how many extra mm per year on top of the 3-4mm or so that it is now.
- nabla9 7y agoMap of the rebound areas https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:PGR_Paulson2007_Rate_of_Lithospheric_Uplift_due_to_post-glacial_rebound.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:PGR_Paulson2007_Rate_of_L... Mainly Canada and Fennoscandia.
- Gravityloss 7y agoWell, who knows what will happen in the areas with massive glacier melt? Earthquakes? Isostatic rebound of the under-glascier ground? Maybe some ground will lower. Iceberg tsunamis too.
- dredmorbius 7y agoDefinitely land rise. Whether or not that tends to be bound as lateral and subductive regions are, triggering earthquakes, isn't clear. My thought is that the risk is probablyl low, though impacts at/near subduction zones might be pronounced through induced earthquakes. A rising landmass (generally the over-riding plate) would tend to reduce the load on the oceanic (under-riding) plate, and allow stresses to be released. Those earthquakes can be massive (Mag 9 Richter in Indonesia, Japan, and Chile), and induce tsunamis. In which case global warming could make for some major seismic events, but only in regions with existing faults. The possibility of increased vulcanism has also been raised.
- peter303 7y agoThe rise has been 3 mm a year (1/8 inch) since 1990 or about 4 inches. http://sealevel.colorado.edu/ http://sealevel.colorado.edu/ This has been averaging millions of measurements of satellite altimeter over oceans. That is considered more accurate than tidal gauges which are subject to local changes such subsidence near river mouths. The 3 mm is a combination of land glacier melt and water thermal expansions. I have heard talks all over the map as to which factor is more dominant. So 4-5 mm a year in the near future is not too off.
- poutine 7y agoI liked table 1 as a nice summary from a referenced paper in the above paper, found here: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2014EF000239 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2014... Their data suggests thermal expansion is the primary culprit.