3 ms·

Is area burned going up because of fuel accumulation? Weather patterns? Less effective response? Better record keeping?

by jefftk 7y ago

jefftk 7y ago
Looks like it's mostly fuel, with some help from weather: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/08/14/wildfires-have-gotten-bigger-recent-years-trend-is-likely-continue/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/08/14/wildfires...
dredmorbius 7y ago
A lot of it is fuel, though that's increasing due to both a century of near-total suppression, which began around 1910-1920, with an "out by 10" policy -- the idea that any fire should be completely suppressed by 10am -- explicitly stated by 1935: https://www.shraboise.com/2017/09/91317-10-m-policy-u-s-forest-service-wildfire-suppression/ https://www.shraboise.com/2017/09/91317-10-m-policy-u-s-fore... Other factors are compounding this: - Diseased forests. Largely beatle infestations and factors such as oak blight. These and similar affect much of the West. - Monsoon/drought cycles. These both lead to more fuel (monsoon) and drier fuel (drought). - Weather is a factor. Low humidities (in the past week, down into the teens) and high winds. Disruption of the Jet Stream may be exacerbating this. - Climate: Shorter wet seasons, longer dry seasons, and more variable weather cycles (heavier rains, stronger winds, lower humidities) don't help. - Human factors: encroachment on the wilderness interface, ignition sources, building codes, transport routes, etc., effect both frequency and impacts. Many fires are of natural origin, thought that's only about 15%. How much that percentage has changed since 1930 I don't know. NB: general information and perceptions, though they should stand up. LA Times lists several of these factors: https://www.latimes.com/local/wildfires/la-me-g-california-fires-20181112-story.html https://www.latimes.com/local/wildfires/la-me-g-california-f... This wildfire fighter veteran gives fuel and weather principally: https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/j5nde4/a-veteran-firefighter-explains-why-california-wildfires-are-getting-worse https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/j5nde4/a-veteran-firefigh... That's similar to a long conversation I'd had with a retired forestry worker in 2007. Chance encounter on a road trip, he talked about the idiocy of total suppression policy at the time. Unfortunately, not citable, though it was a very memorable discussion. Ignition sources: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-10-29/how-do-wildfires-start https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-10-29/how-do-w...

Is area burned going up because of fuel accumulation? Weather patterns? Less effective response? Better record keeping?

by jefftk 7y ago

Is area burned going up because of fuel accumulation? Weather patterns? Less effective response? Better record keeping?

Looks like it's mostly fuel, with some help from weather: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/08/14/wildfires-have-gotten-bigger-recent-years-trend-is-likely-continue/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/08/14/wildfires...

dredmorbius 7y ago

A lot of it is fuel, though that's increasing due to both a century of near-total suppression, which began around 1910-1920, with an "out by 10" policy -- the idea that any fire should be completely suppressed by 10am -- explicitly stated by 1935: https://www.shraboise.com/2017/09/91317-10-m-policy-u-s-forest-service-wildfire-suppression/ https://www.shraboise.com/2017/09/91317-10-m-policy-u-s-fore... Other factors are compounding this: - Diseased forests. Largely beatle infestations and factors such as oak blight. These and similar affect much of the West. - Monsoon/drought cycles. These both lead to more fuel (monsoon) and drier fuel (drought). - Weather is a factor. Low humidities (in the past week, down into the teens) and high winds. Disruption of the Jet Stream may be exacerbating this. - Climate: Shorter wet seasons, longer dry seasons, and more variable weather cycles (heavier rains, stronger winds, lower humidities) don't help. - Human factors: encroachment on the wilderness interface, ignition sources, building codes, transport routes, etc., effect both frequency and impacts. Many fires are of natural origin, thought that's only about 15%. How much that percentage has changed since 1930 I don't know. NB: general information and perceptions, though they should stand up. LA Times lists several of these factors: https://www.latimes.com/local/wildfires/la-me-g-california-fires-20181112-story.html https://www.latimes.com/local/wildfires/la-me-g-california-f... This wildfire fighter veteran gives fuel and weather principally: https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/j5nde4/a-veteran-firefighter-explains-why-california-wildfires-are-getting-worse https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/j5nde4/a-veteran-firefigh... That's similar to a long conversation I'd had with a retired forestry worker in 2007. Chance encounter on a road trip, he talked about the idiocy of total suppression policy at the time. Unfortunately, not citable, though it was a very memorable discussion. Ignition sources: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-10-29/how-do-wildfires-start https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-10-29/how-do-w...