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I've had a thought recently that bonds are quirky in that - unlike other investments - they behave like a utility. I've just seen that expressed in your comment
by cturner 16y ago
I've had a thought recently that bonds are quirky in that - unlike other investments - they behave like a utility. I've just seen that expressed in your comment.
You didn't say you were chasing a particular return, but that you were chasing safety. Bonds have a special property in that they combine being very flexible and are considered to be very safe. I think this creates a demand for them due to that combination, rather than due to their return on investment.
I don't see the evidence that they are that safe. Certainly, history shows many examples of governments which have spiraled into debt and inflated or defaulted.
But so long as there's a population that acts along this logic, it would seem that bonds will function as a nice, flexible store of value.
> ETFs make it relatively easy now.
I suspect some of them are vulnerable to the same flaws as the financial system. For example, some ETFs don't keep physical holdings of the asset they represent, and have positions that are exposed to counterparty risk. For example, I read about an ETF that allowed people to borrow its stock for shorting.
If I was investing in that sort of ETF, I'd be concerned about upside. Holding commodities can be nice in a black swan event. But ETFs with counterparty risk may themselves fall over at such a time.
- nika 16y agoThis brings us back to the original "point" of precious metals. They are small enough and valuable enough to hold physically. You don't need to buy a gold ETF, you can buy actual gold. And this is not just in case of a "black swan" event, it is a counter to the very high rates of inflation we're seeing. You're right that ETFs have counter party risk, holding physical gold or platinum has little risk. (You can hold it in a safe deposit box, or in a very small cardboard box well hidden in your house and have pretty good surety that no thief will ever find it. Even $100,000 in platinum is very compact.)