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The quarterly safety numbers that Tesla releases are difficult to draw conclusions from, because they do not represent a controlled experiment over the same roa

by zaroth 7y ago

The quarterly safety numbers that Tesla releases are difficult to draw conclusions from, because they do not represent a controlled experiment over the same road conditions. However here are the numbers for millions of miles per crash (higher is better). With AutoPilot, Without AutoPilot but With Active Safety Measures, Without AutoPilot or Active Safety Measures, and NHTSA Average Vehicle 19Q3 - 4.34 2.70 1.82 0.50 19Q2 - 3.27 2.19 1.41 0.50 19Q1 - 2.87 1.76 1.26 0.44 18Q4 - 2.91 1.58 1.25 0.44 18Q3 - 3.34 1.92 2.02 0.49

simion314 7y ago
Those numbers are useless for concluding anything about what would happen if you remove the human completely, there are videos that show how the human intervened and saved the car from certain crash and I this situation should be counted as "Deaths" for the AI only column. Driving assistants would improve safety certainly, but removing the driver and letting the assistant drive will need real world like tests, for now maybe you could have an independent group monitoring a number of Teslas and checking each time a human intervened and give a score on how bad the AI was.
- nytesky 7y ago
  Actually I’m not convinced assistants will improve safety. Level 4 for example could be a blood bath, where cars drive all the easy situations, and hand over emergency control to out of practice drivers barely paying attention at a moments notice. I believe our driving skills were better when we had manual transmission, and were more involved in overall operation. Hard to determine if safer, b/c of advances in crumple zones, airbags, etc as manual declined.
  - maxerickson 7y ago
    The sudden control swap you describe is level 3. Level 4 requires that the vehicle safely stop in situations it can't handle.
  - simion314 7y ago
    It is possible , we would need data, The extremely sad part is that we could reduce the number of deaths until true AI arrives using simple tech that could detect if the driver is drunk or tired, and controversially forcing the speed limits(the car knows that this road is max 90Km/h and that the driver has less then 1 year experience so it will not let you get over 70 (local laws apply) unless you activate emergency mode - this would trigger some bad consequences if it was no emergency)
  - manmal 7y ago
    We do have some data. E.g., the Volvo XC90 hasn't killed any passengers, ever, thanks to collision detection and emergency braking systems: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/15/britains-safest-car-revealed-no-road-deaths-16-years/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/15/britains-safest-...
Zarath 7y ago
Good to see improvement, but is this controlled for the fact that autopilot is mostly on highways? I'm not sure what the crash rate per mile is on the highway vs driving in a city.
- de_watcher 7y ago
  I don't know about per-mile, but there are more crashes in the city per hour. (that's data from the highest crash rate country where you were able see so many crashes that you develop a feel)
- Slartie 7y ago
  I would bet a body part on it being way lower, especially if we do not limit it to fatal crashes only (I read that statistic quoted above as "all reported crashes", not just those with fatalities). I had two crashes in my lifetime. Both occurred when driving backwards out of a parking lot. No fatalities, limited damage. Good luck finding such situations while driving on a highway...
- tyfon 7y ago
  I use autopilot even on small roads even if it's not designed for it. After V10 it also handles roads without a centre line just fine. However I do pay attention and keep my hands on the wheel, I think autopilot + human is much safer than either one, but since the latest updates I rarely have to take control if not going in roundabouts or junctions. I also had one instance a few weeks ago where I tried to enter another lane manually and the car took control from me and put me back in my lane as there was someone in my blind spot without their headlights on so I didn't see it.
  - rootusrootus 7y ago
    That sounds promising. OTOH, my car tried to drive into a tractor-trailer a couple weeks ago. That was a momentarily interesting experience. It seemed to become confused by the onramp merge joining my travel lane (pretty normal for autopilot to screw this up), but then it "realized" the mistake and dove for the other lane. I haven't been as happy with v10 as I was with v9.

by zaroth 7y ago

simion314 7y ago

Those numbers are useless for concluding anything about what would happen if you remove the human completely, there are videos that show how the human intervened and saved the car from certain crash and I this situation should be counted as "Deaths" for the AI only column. Driving assistants would improve safety certainly, but removing the driver and letting the assistant drive will need real world like tests, for now maybe you could have an independent group monitoring a number of Teslas and checking each time a human intervened and give a score on how bad the AI was.

nytesky 7y ago
Actually I’m not convinced assistants will improve safety. Level 4 for example could be a blood bath, where cars drive all the easy situations, and hand over emergency control to out of practice drivers barely paying attention at a moments notice. I believe our driving skills were better when we had manual transmission, and were more involved in overall operation. Hard to determine if safer, b/c of advances in crumple zones, airbags, etc as manual declined.
- maxerickson 7y ago
  The sudden control swap you describe is level 3. Level 4 requires that the vehicle safely stop in situations it can't handle.
- simion314 7y ago
  It is possible , we would need data, The extremely sad part is that we could reduce the number of deaths until true AI arrives using simple tech that could detect if the driver is drunk or tired, and controversially forcing the speed limits(the car knows that this road is max 90Km/h and that the driver has less then 1 year experience so it will not let you get over 70 (local laws apply) unless you activate emergency mode - this would trigger some bad consequences if it was no emergency)
- manmal 7y ago
  We do have some data. E.g., the Volvo XC90 hasn't killed any passengers, ever, thanks to collision detection and emergency braking systems: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/15/britains-safest-car-revealed-no-road-deaths-16-years/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/15/britains-safest-...

Zarath 7y ago

Good to see improvement, but is this controlled for the fact that autopilot is mostly on highways? I'm not sure what the crash rate per mile is on the highway vs driving in a city.

de_watcher 7y ago
I don't know about per-mile, but there are more crashes in the city per hour. (that's data from the highest crash rate country where you were able see so many crashes that you develop a feel)
Slartie 7y ago
I would bet a body part on it being way lower, especially if we do not limit it to fatal crashes only (I read that statistic quoted above as "all reported crashes", not just those with fatalities). I had two crashes in my lifetime. Both occurred when driving backwards out of a parking lot. No fatalities, limited damage. Good luck finding such situations while driving on a highway...
tyfon 7y ago
I use autopilot even on small roads even if it's not designed for it. After V10 it also handles roads without a centre line just fine. However I do pay attention and keep my hands on the wheel, I think autopilot + human is much safer than either one, but since the latest updates I rarely have to take control if not going in roundabouts or junctions. I also had one instance a few weeks ago where I tried to enter another lane manually and the car took control from me and put me back in my lane as there was someone in my blind spot without their headlights on so I didn't see it.
- rootusrootus 7y ago
  That sounds promising. OTOH, my car tried to drive into a tractor-trailer a couple weeks ago. That was a momentarily interesting experience. It seemed to become confused by the onramp merge joining my travel lane (pretty normal for autopilot to screw this up), but then it "realized" the mistake and dove for the other lane. I haven't been as happy with v10 as I was with v9.