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He says in the linked interview: > "I don't even know if that will happen in my lifetime." Not that I wish for Woz's death in any way, but he is 69 years old.

He says in the linked interview: > "I don't even know if that will happen in my lifetime." Not that I wish for Woz's death in any way, but he is 69 years old. The average male life expectancy in the US is 78. Now, he's wealthy, so I would expect him to probably live longer than the average, but 15-20 years would be doing good. 15-20 years is also my personal expectation for when we will start seeing truly autonomous self-driving vehicles. Moreover, I think it will be incremental growth, not immediate massive availability. I would expect the technology to be adopted in certain controlled situations first, and in places where it makes economic sense. And considering how long it can take for people to replace cars and for the technology to filter down to more economic models, 40+ years before the majority of cars are self-driving does not seem like an unreasonable estimate.

wiremine 7y ago
> 15-20 years is also my personal expectation for when we will start seeing truly autonomous self-driving vehicles. Came here to say the same things. Woz is awesome, but not a Spring Chicken. I'm 42, and I tell my 13 son I expect him to see it in his lifetime. If I get it when I'm old and can't drive anymore, I'll be really happy. And if the industry beats expectations, all the better!
- peckrob 7y ago
  Same. I'm 38, and I've told my 7 year old that I would expect that her grandchildren's generation probably won't need drivers' licenses. I think that period from about 20 years from now until then will be a somewhat uncomfortable overlap period where people will still need to know how to drive, but that computers will be doing more and more of the actual day-to-day driving. The only thing I could see that would shorten the interval is legal approaches. Such as, if the technology proves sufficiently adept, for it to be declared as a mandatory safety feature on par with seatbelts and airbags. But even then there will still be non-autonomous cars on the road (just as there are still cars on the road without seatbelts and airbags) for many, many years. Again, unless you take the extra legal step and ban them from the road. That doesn't mean it isn't worth doing. Something that we fail at a lot in the modern world is thinking long-term, beyond our own lifetimes. Just because something might not get done during my lifetime doesn't mean that we shouldn't do it, just that others may have to finish the work we started. Ultimately, society will be better for the investment we are making now.

wiremine 7y ago

> 15-20 years is also my personal expectation for when we will start seeing truly autonomous self-driving vehicles. Came here to say the same things. Woz is awesome, but not a Spring Chicken. I'm 42, and I tell my 13 son I expect him to see it in his lifetime. If I get it when I'm old and can't drive anymore, I'll be really happy. And if the industry beats expectations, all the better!

peckrob 7y ago
Same. I'm 38, and I've told my 7 year old that I would expect that her grandchildren's generation probably won't need drivers' licenses. I think that period from about 20 years from now until then will be a somewhat uncomfortable overlap period where people will still need to know how to drive, but that computers will be doing more and more of the actual day-to-day driving. The only thing I could see that would shorten the interval is legal approaches. Such as, if the technology proves sufficiently adept, for it to be declared as a mandatory safety feature on par with seatbelts and airbags. But even then there will still be non-autonomous cars on the road (just as there are still cars on the road without seatbelts and airbags) for many, many years. Again, unless you take the extra legal step and ban them from the road. That doesn't mean it isn't worth doing. Something that we fail at a lot in the modern world is thinking long-term, beyond our own lifetimes. Just because something might not get done during my lifetime doesn't mean that we shouldn't do it, just that others may have to finish the work we started. Ultimately, society will be better for the investment we are making now.