That seems pretty obvious because anyone who succeeds on the first try just got lucky. Reality is very complex and it takes years of failure to understand the

That seems pretty obvious because anyone who succeeds on the first try just got lucky. Reality is very complex and it takes years of failure to understand the full complexity of anything. Sometimes you just try something and it just happens to work the first time; this doesn't mean that you know what you're doing. If you succeed too early, it can give you false confidence about your abilities and this makes you unwilling to accept advice from 'unsuccessful' people who have a very thorough understanding of what's going on. People who've endured constant failure throughout their careers and who never gave up are often way more talented than successful people who've only experienced a few failures. Failure is relentless. It's the default outcome for essentially every action, no matter how well it was planned beforehand. There is almost always something completely unexpected which pops out of nowhere and ruins everything. Small things which pop out of nowhere to ruin everything are extremely common. When you have a lot of capital, you don't even notice those, but if don't have capital and you've failed many times before, you learn to operate at a different level; the essence of your strategy is not about looking at numbers and making broad, obvious projections, instead, your strategy is centered around anticipating and mitigating all possible small unexpected things that can go wrong.