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It's not guaranteed that they catch up to the US, even with such a massive population. Although they're growing at a faster pace the US economy is much larger,

by eloff 7y ago

It's not guaranteed that they catch up to the US, even with such a massive population. Although they're growing at a faster pace the US economy is much larger, so that in absolute terms they're not currently gaining ground. Then you look at the US population which is still growing and closing that population gap slowly, while China will shrink 30 million in the next 30 years. At which point their demographic nightmare will be fully settled in with a very large retired population and a much smaller working class, worse than Japan currently is dealing with. But the elephant in the room is does real innovation require freedom? So far China had been unable to come any where close to the US in innovation, and that's the major driver of growth for a developed nation. At some point they may just hit the wall.

friendlybus 7y ago
The demographic argument has been played out for decades in regards to china. Does china need to innovate? They have very well oiled structures for 'borrowing' other countries' ip. That was all fun and games when their military was not so great, but we're back to competing with them. They can also research in areas that seem ethically and morally dubious to the west, they will always have the edge there.
- scottlocklin 7y ago
  > ... we're back to competing with them. I don't remember the US competing with China at any point in its history. China's been a wreck since 1800 or so. China not being a wreck is a fairly new thing, and China being a player on the world stage is unique. In my lifetime, people used the expression "starving kids in China" to denote incredibly poor people. Demographics... pretty much all civilized peoples have experienced demographic collapse. The US is no different.
- eloff 7y ago
  You can't just dismiss the demographic argument. The beautiful thing about demographic arguments, unlike just about everything in macroeconomics is it's predictable decades in advance in its magnitude. China really fucked themselves with their one-child policy, there's no way to fix that aside from mass immigration and I don't see that happening, do you? So demographics will eat them in the end. The US have had enough immigration, legal and illegal, that the aging baby-boomers (much milder than what China has to face to begin with) won't be as bad.

by eloff 7y ago

friendlybus 7y ago

The demographic argument has been played out for decades in regards to china. Does china need to innovate? They have very well oiled structures for 'borrowing' other countries' ip. That was all fun and games when their military was not so great, but we're back to competing with them. They can also research in areas that seem ethically and morally dubious to the west, they will always have the edge there.

scottlocklin 7y ago
> ... we're back to competing with them. I don't remember the US competing with China at any point in its history. China's been a wreck since 1800 or so. China not being a wreck is a fairly new thing, and China being a player on the world stage is unique. In my lifetime, people used the expression "starving kids in China" to denote incredibly poor people. Demographics... pretty much all civilized peoples have experienced demographic collapse. The US is no different.
eloff 7y ago
You can't just dismiss the demographic argument. The beautiful thing about demographic arguments, unlike just about everything in macroeconomics is it's predictable decades in advance in its magnitude. China really fucked themselves with their one-child policy, there's no way to fix that aside from mass immigration and I don't see that happening, do you? So demographics will eat them in the end. The US have had enough immigration, legal and illegal, that the aging baby-boomers (much milder than what China has to face to begin with) won't be as bad.