They are climate models, not weather models. Buried somewhere in the IPCC reports is the sorts of time space they apply to. I vaguely remember 10 years or so.

They are climate models, not weather models. Buried somewhere in the IPCC reports is the sorts of time space they apply to. I vaguely remember 10 years or so. I do distinctly remember thinking during the pause if something dramatic didn't happen by 2016 they were in serious trouble, because that was at the end of the range. > That is to say that the current alignment is just coincidental. Sort of. The model is (heatIn - heatOut - seaAbsorption) = surface weather. They got the seaAbsorption wrong, something they later figured out with the Argo network as you noted. But that means they got the primary driver of global warming, heatOut dropping as CO2 increases, right. Which sadly means if you wait long enough, their predictions were always going be right because in the end heatIn - heatOut is all that matters.