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fail-safe meaning you're ready to lose up to 50% of your investments? cause quite a few things on that list are mutually exclusive...

• Evgeny 16y ago
  The author argues that these four types of investments are very unlikely to go down at the same time - if one loses a lot, the other types grow. " It might seem that a Permanent Portfolio containing these four contradictory investments would be neutralized: As one element rose, another would fall and nothing would be gained. On a day-to-day basis, that can be true. But over broad periods of time, the winning investments add more value to the portfolio than the losing investments take away." He gives some numbers in the book, from 1970 till 2002 the portfolio lost money only in four years: 6.2% in 1981, 0.7% in 1990, 2.4% in 1994, and 1.0% in 2001. Three of these four years were followed by double-digit gains. The average gain was 9.5% per year.
  • borism 16y ago
    70-02 period is pretty irrelevant in today's world though. how did such portfolio perform during Great Depression, which is more like what we face today?
    • DanI-S 16y ago
      Would it have been possible to raise $8m in VC funding for a glorified slideshow during the Great Depression?
    • Evgeny 16y ago
      I think the author wrote from personal experience, so he could be either too young or not even born yet during Greate Depression.
      • borism 16y ago
        unfortunately investment advice written from personal experience is pretty useless if not harmful.