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> But consumers are already making this investment by switching en masse to EVs "En masse"? Maybe if you live in Norway or something like that. According to t

> But consumers are already making this investment by switching en masse to EVs "En masse"? Maybe if you live in Norway or something like that. According to the data I was able to find online, only about 2% of the new cars sold worldwide in 2018. are EVs. If we take the number of all cars currently on the roads worldwide, it's around 0.25%. As for the "Vehicle-to-grid" thing in the United States, the Wikipedia page lists 3 experiments which are in progress and 2 claims with "citation needed" flag: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle-to-grid https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle-to-grid

Tempest1981 7y ago
I know we're thinking focused on cars, but fwiw: "China has 99% of the world’s 250 million electric two-wheelers."
MiguelHudnandez 7y ago
Most homes have multiple cars. A single high-end car could support multiple homes without the grid for over 24 hours. So I think even at adoption rates under 5% you would see enough capacity to shave those peaks and make it easier to respond to changes in demand. See Australia's tests with grid-smoothing batteries. Immensely successful and it has paid for itself. https://www.sciencealert.com/remember-the-giant-tesla-battery-in-australia-it-just-marked-its-first-year/amp https://www.sciencealert.com/remember-the-giant-tesla-batter...
z-cam 7y ago
I might be saying "en masse" 18 months prematurely. But at the speed utilities move, that's a blink of an eye. I'm often reminded of Steve Balmer in 2007 laughing at the iPhone: "it's $500 and it doesn't even have a keyboard!?" Less than 10 years later smartphones are ubiquitous. Not popular--ubiquitous. That's where EVs are right now: "they cost more and they can't even go 250 miles!?" EVs will be cheaper than gas cars by 2022, and a few years after that nobody will buy another gas car.
- brandmeyer 7y ago
  $500 smartphones are only ubiquitous in the most wealthy parts of the most wealthy countries in the world.
  - pedrosorio 7y ago
    Smartphones are ubiquitous, not high-end iPhones. EVs will be ubiquitous, not Tesla Model S.
    - z-cam 7y ago
      Agreed
jsight 7y ago
I'm not sure that I'd say "en masse" either, but the current numbers to understate the phenomenon by quite a bit. Just a year or two ago it was <1%, and I'd expect it to hit >4% by the end of next year with a continuing high growth rate for at least another couple of years after that. I do not think it is at all obvious what will happen afterwards, but its going to start looking really rapid to people in another year or two.

Tempest1981 7y ago

I know we're thinking focused on cars, but fwiw: "China has 99% of the world’s 250 million electric two-wheelers."

MiguelHudnandez 7y ago

Most homes have multiple cars. A single high-end car could support multiple homes without the grid for over 24 hours. So I think even at adoption rates under 5% you would see enough capacity to shave those peaks and make it easier to respond to changes in demand. See Australia's tests with grid-smoothing batteries. Immensely successful and it has paid for itself. https://www.sciencealert.com/remember-the-giant-tesla-battery-in-australia-it-just-marked-its-first-year/amp https://www.sciencealert.com/remember-the-giant-tesla-batter...

z-cam 7y ago

I might be saying "en masse" 18 months prematurely. But at the speed utilities move, that's a blink of an eye. I'm often reminded of Steve Balmer in 2007 laughing at the iPhone: "it's $500 and it doesn't even have a keyboard!?" Less than 10 years later smartphones are ubiquitous. Not popular--ubiquitous. That's where EVs are right now: "they cost more and they can't even go 250 miles!?" EVs will be cheaper than gas cars by 2022, and a few years after that nobody will buy another gas car.

brandmeyer 7y ago
$500 smartphones are only ubiquitous in the most wealthy parts of the most wealthy countries in the world.
- pedrosorio 7y ago
  Smartphones are ubiquitous, not high-end iPhones. EVs will be ubiquitous, not Tesla Model S.
  - z-cam 7y ago
    Agreed

jsight 7y ago

I'm not sure that I'd say "en masse" either, but the current numbers to understate the phenomenon by quite a bit. Just a year or two ago it was <1%, and I'd expect it to hit >4% by the end of next year with a continuing high growth rate for at least another couple of years after that. I do not think it is at all obvious what will happen afterwards, but its going to start looking really rapid to people in another year or two.