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I agree that the pro's trading ARM will have already figured out its significance ... however (based on no evidence what-so-ever) there is surely many more peop

by jhen095 16y ago

I agree that the pro's trading ARM will have already figured out its significance ... however (based on no evidence what-so-ever) there is surely many more people that haven't figured this link out. When/If ARM hits the spotlight in years to come, multitudes of people will be there to bull rush the price. And the people who figured the link out early will benefit. Knowing that an iPhone has an ARM chip does constitute an edge. Not an edge against everybody, but an edge against most.

tptacek 16y ago
The insight you're trying to capitalize on has a direct expression in the market already: it's called the price/earnings ratio. At 95, ARMH has roughly 70% of the heat that OpenTable does, and 270% of the heat that SolarWinds does; those are two of the hottest tech IPOs of the last 18 months or so. It may in general be true that basic knowledge of how stuff works gives you an edge, but here you're overplaying your hand: ARMH isn't a dark horse stock.
- jhen095 16y ago
  I disagree. A high PE ratio in general is not a direct expression of my 'insight' in general. However in this case it probably is. Thanks for pointing that out, I hadn't looked at ARM's figures previously. I guess I was 'overplaying', although I still think that the average Joe Blogg would be yet to realize the 'edge', hence it would still be an advantage making ARMH more of a very light gray horse.
  - tptacek 16y ago
    A high PE ratio is an expression of the premium the market is paying over and above the cash flows a company is already generating. Here are the comparables for ARMH: AMD 12.41 INTC 10.36 NVDA 69.17 ARMH 95.01 MIPS 36.06 QCOM 26.28 AAPL 18.84 STM 19.99 MSFT 12.18 IBM 11.58 BRCM 28.05 Anyone still think ARMH is a "find"? I actually agree with the earlier commenter on this thread who lamented that he was probably going to watch ARMH double while he sat on the sidelines. I've recommended against buying AAPL a bunch of times too and been a poor fortune teller. But that doesn't make the methodology being used to pick ARMH sensible. The market knows ARM powers the iPhone.
- davidmathers 16y ago
  There is money to be made trading on "multitudes of people" and their awareness of technology. At least there has been in the past. The best example I can think of is when 3com spun off Palm. On the opening day of trading Palm had a larger market cap than 3com even though 3com still owned 80% of Palm. The market was demonstrably irrational at the end of the 90's and it's unlikely such extreme situations will happen again, but there's still something there. EDIT: "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." is a famous aphorism and markets are frequently irrational in ways that you can't necessarily profit from. The difference in 1999-2000 was that the market was actually insane. It was fairly easy to find stock prices that were mathematically impossible. Along with trading opportunities that offered large reward with almost no risk. That's the part that won't happen again.
deleted 16y ago
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by jhen095 16y ago

tptacek 16y ago

The insight you're trying to capitalize on has a direct expression in the market already: it's called the price/earnings ratio. At 95, ARMH has roughly 70% of the heat that OpenTable does, and 270% of the heat that SolarWinds does; those are two of the hottest tech IPOs of the last 18 months or so. It may in general be true that basic knowledge of how stuff works gives you an edge, but here you're overplaying your hand: ARMH isn't a dark horse stock.

jhen095 16y ago
I disagree. A high PE ratio in general is not a direct expression of my 'insight' in general. However in this case it probably is. Thanks for pointing that out, I hadn't looked at ARM's figures previously. I guess I was 'overplaying', although I still think that the average Joe Blogg would be yet to realize the 'edge', hence it would still be an advantage making ARMH more of a very light gray horse.
- tptacek 16y ago
  A high PE ratio is an expression of the premium the market is paying over and above the cash flows a company is already generating. Here are the comparables for ARMH: AMD 12.41 INTC 10.36 NVDA 69.17 ARMH 95.01 MIPS 36.06 QCOM 26.28 AAPL 18.84 STM 19.99 MSFT 12.18 IBM 11.58 BRCM 28.05 Anyone still think ARMH is a "find"? I actually agree with the earlier commenter on this thread who lamented that he was probably going to watch ARMH double while he sat on the sidelines. I've recommended against buying AAPL a bunch of times too and been a poor fortune teller. But that doesn't make the methodology being used to pick ARMH sensible. The market knows ARM powers the iPhone.
davidmathers 16y ago
There is money to be made trading on "multitudes of people" and their awareness of technology. At least there has been in the past. The best example I can think of is when 3com spun off Palm. On the opening day of trading Palm had a larger market cap than 3com even though 3com still owned 80% of Palm. The market was demonstrably irrational at the end of the 90's and it's unlikely such extreme situations will happen again, but there's still something there. EDIT: "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." is a famous aphorism and markets are frequently irrational in ways that you can't necessarily profit from. The difference in 1999-2000 was that the market was actually insane. It was fairly easy to find stock prices that were mathematically impossible. Along with trading opportunities that offered large reward with almost no risk. That's the part that won't happen again.

deleted 16y ago

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