4 ms·

Can you support this opinion?

by all2 7y ago

pstuart 7y ago
Nope. I'd love to be proven wrong.
- radford-neal 7y ago
  I'm baffled. You "expect" something that you say you have no reason to expect, and you hope this expectation is wrong. Is this some new meaning of "expect" that I'm not familiar with? Or do you follow a psychological strategy of expecting bad things so that you'll always be pleasantly surprised?
  - WillPostForFood 7y ago
    It is a human phenomenon, that has religious and secular expressions. https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/psychology-reveals-the-comforts-of-the-apocalypse/ https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/psychology... ...some apocalyptic believers find the idea that the end is nigh to be validating. Individuals with a history of traumatic experiences, for example, may be fatalistic. For these people, finding a group of like-minded fatalists is reassuring. There may also be comfort in being able to attribute doom to some larger cosmic order—such as an ancient Mayan prophecy. This kind of mythology removes any sense of individual responsibility.
    - rriepe 7y ago
      Kinda sounds like you're calling AGW a doomsday cult.
      - WillPostForFood 7y ago
        No, but there are doomsday cultish acolytes of AGW.
    - pstuart 7y ago
      Thank you for your diagnosis, but I can explain. Reports coming out now are indicating that shit's getting real faster than was modeled. Models are educated guesses at realty; are the models guaranteed 100% accurate? No, and I'm (just) guessing that the inaccuracies are in the conservative realm. I do not find it validating, I find it terrifying. I worry for my kids future. Anybody who isn't worried about what's happening now is a fool.
tito 7y ago
Greenland's massive ice melt wasn't supposed to happen until 2070. It seems even the scientific predictions can be too conservative. The changing climate isn't a linear system, it's more like a step function. Once the ice melts it's much harder to get back. https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottsnowden/2019/08/16/greenlands-massive-ice-melt-wasnt-supposed-to-happen-until-2070/#73bd18274894 https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottsnowden/2019/08/16/greenla...
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- all2 7y ago
  It is interesting to note that just about 1000 years ago the Vikings were growing barley in Greenland [0]. > “Now we can see that the Vikings could grow corn, and this was very important for their nourishment and survival,” Barley seems to do ok in late Spring conditions in the NE United States [1]. I'm not certain you could grow barley or corn in Tundra conditions. I bring this up when people mention warming global conditions because the planet has, in the past, been much warmer than it is now. [0] https://sciencenordic.com/agriculture-archaeology-denmark/vikings-grew-barley-in-greenland/1447746 https://sciencenordic.com/agriculture-archaeology-denmark/vi... [1] https://plants.usda.gov/plantguide/pdf/ccpg_horde.pdf https://plants.usda.gov/plantguide/pdf/ccpg_horde.pdf
  - Sharlin 7y ago
    It was a well-known and understood roughly 300-year localized warmer period[1] in Western Europe and the North Atlantic. The planet has been globally warmer than what it is now but that was long before H. sapiens and has nothing to do with the Vikings or barley. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period
- phkahler 7y ago
  It's part of a natural cycle. We were never going to stop it anyway. The real means to stop it will not be talked about until the serious changes start happening and the entire world is in panic.
throwaway5752 7y ago
Well, extremes are what will cause most pain. Reality is running ahead of and worse than models, and the models seem to underestimate extrema https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08745-6 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08745-6
tejtm 7y ago
there are many arguments, some unfortunately rabid ... this one feels well put together. https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist/ https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist...

Can you support this opinion?

by all2 7y ago

Can you support this opinion?

pstuart 7y ago

Nope. I'd love to be proven wrong.

radford-neal 7y ago
I'm baffled. You "expect" something that you say you have no reason to expect, and you hope this expectation is wrong. Is this some new meaning of "expect" that I'm not familiar with? Or do you follow a psychological strategy of expecting bad things so that you'll always be pleasantly surprised?
- WillPostForFood 7y ago
  It is a human phenomenon, that has religious and secular expressions. https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/psychology-reveals-the-comforts-of-the-apocalypse/ https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/psychology... ...some apocalyptic believers find the idea that the end is nigh to be validating. Individuals with a history of traumatic experiences, for example, may be fatalistic. For these people, finding a group of like-minded fatalists is reassuring. There may also be comfort in being able to attribute doom to some larger cosmic order—such as an ancient Mayan prophecy. This kind of mythology removes any sense of individual responsibility.
  - rriepe 7y ago
    Kinda sounds like you're calling AGW a doomsday cult.
    - WillPostForFood 7y ago
      No, but there are doomsday cultish acolytes of AGW.
  - pstuart 7y ago
    Thank you for your diagnosis, but I can explain. Reports coming out now are indicating that shit's getting real faster than was modeled. Models are educated guesses at realty; are the models guaranteed 100% accurate? No, and I'm (just) guessing that the inaccuracies are in the conservative realm. I do not find it validating, I find it terrifying. I worry for my kids future. Anybody who isn't worried about what's happening now is a fool.

tito 7y ago

Greenland's massive ice melt wasn't supposed to happen until 2070. It seems even the scientific predictions can be too conservative. The changing climate isn't a linear system, it's more like a step function. Once the ice melts it's much harder to get back. https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottsnowden/2019/08/16/greenlands-massive-ice-melt-wasnt-supposed-to-happen-until-2070/#73bd18274894 https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottsnowden/2019/08/16/greenla...

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
all2 7y ago
It is interesting to note that just about 1000 years ago the Vikings were growing barley in Greenland [0]. > “Now we can see that the Vikings could grow corn, and this was very important for their nourishment and survival,” Barley seems to do ok in late Spring conditions in the NE United States [1]. I'm not certain you could grow barley or corn in Tundra conditions. I bring this up when people mention warming global conditions because the planet has, in the past, been much warmer than it is now. [0] https://sciencenordic.com/agriculture-archaeology-denmark/vikings-grew-barley-in-greenland/1447746 https://sciencenordic.com/agriculture-archaeology-denmark/vi... [1] https://plants.usda.gov/plantguide/pdf/ccpg_horde.pdf https://plants.usda.gov/plantguide/pdf/ccpg_horde.pdf
- Sharlin 7y ago
  It was a well-known and understood roughly 300-year localized warmer period[1] in Western Europe and the North Atlantic. The planet has been globally warmer than what it is now but that was long before H. sapiens and has nothing to do with the Vikings or barley. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period
phkahler 7y ago
It's part of a natural cycle. We were never going to stop it anyway. The real means to stop it will not be talked about until the serious changes start happening and the entire world is in panic.

throwaway5752 7y ago

Well, extremes are what will cause most pain. Reality is running ahead of and worse than models, and the models seem to underestimate extrema https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08745-6 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08745-6

tejtm 7y ago

there are many arguments, some unfortunately rabid ... this one feels well put together. https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist/ https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist...