3 ms·
Spot on. I do mention in the article that the price of ARMH probably takes everything I mention into account already. I fully realize that buying ARMH right now
by steadicat 16y ago
Spot on. I do mention in the article that the price of ARMH probably takes everything I mention into account already. I fully realize that buying ARMH right now is a gamble. It's one I'm willing to take though (even if just for the fun of it). Someone else more rational might want to stick to index funds. :)
- tptacek 16y agoYour entire coverage of this point is a single heavily-hedged sentence at the end of your stock-picking section, followed by "they could have said the same about AAPL", as if the success of the iPhone somehow guaranteed that ARMH would track AAPL (it does not). Also, the word "perhaps". No, not "perhaps". Iron certainty.
- DennisP 16y agoAt a P/E of 95, it's pretty scary. Then again, you'll probably double your money anyway while I sit on the sidelines complaining about the P/E :)
- nika 16y agoBoth "index funds" and "ARM" is a gamble because you're advocating investing in them without regard to price. In both cases you're just buying something based on it being popular, not because it makes a good investment. If you do the math and you are able to calculate your returns, in advance, with some reasonable accuracy, then you're investing. If you're just buying something without regard to price because it feels good (including index funds) or fits your emotional state- then you're gambling. I've got no problem with speculation-- which is informed investing in high risk / high reward situations, but that takes even more analysis, not less.