You are correct! Most people tend to say 1/2, or if they have some knowledge of probability but dismiss the Tuesday aspect then 1/3. It does rely on the problem

You are correct! Most people tend to say 1/2, or if they have some knowledge of probability but dismiss the Tuesday aspect then 1/3. It does rely on the problem being interpreted as equivalent to the dialogue I have posted below, but even when so framed, many people will refuse to believe it.