3 ms·

I've always preferred to draw it out as a tree of what your your possible choices are at each stage, I find easier to get right and I find that people understan

I've always preferred to draw it out as a tree of what your your possible choices are at each stage, I find easier to get right and I find that people understand it more intuitively. ┌─────────────┼─────────────┐ G G C ┌┴┐ ┌┴┐ ┌┴┐ Stay│ │Switch Stay│ │Switch Stay│ │Switch G C G C C G

daveFNbuck 7y ago
That has similar drawbacks of hiding the subtlety behind how Monty is being modeled. The tree you've drawn will tend to lead people to the wrong answer if you ask whether switching improves your odds when Monty doesn't know which door has the car.