This subtlety, to me, only comes into play when you cast it in a Bayesian context, because then you are forced to consider the probability that Monty reveals a

This subtlety, to me, only comes into play when you cast it in a Bayesian context, because then you are forced to consider the probability that Monty reveals a goat. But the approach fundamentally breaks down because you can’t actually compute this, due to lack of any data. All it suggests to me is that this line of reasoning is insufficient, not that Monty’s motivations and knowledge actually matter.