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> Answer to both: it becomes 50-50 if Monty was ignorant, even if we post hoc filter out those cases where he got it right. It's not 50/50 because he is ignora
by henrikschroder 7y ago
> Answer to both: it becomes 50-50 if Monty was ignorant, even if we post hoc filter out those cases where he got it right.
It's not 50/50 because he is ignorant, it's 50/50 because you've discarded 1/3 of the outcomes, and all the outcomes you've discarded were ones where the contestant initially picked a goat.
- bonoboTP 7y agoThat's true, but I discarded it based on what I think Monty knew and counterfactual reasoning. The question is why "knowledge" or "luck" or "just accidentally" have an effect on what I should discard. Another "more serious" related "paradox" is in scientific hypothesis testing. You can have different p values even if you observed the exact same experimental outcome but your stepping criterion was different. The only difference is the speculation of what you would have done if the experimental outcome had been different. [0] These things are quite unexpected unless you've already worked through such examples. [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Likelihood_principle https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Likelihood_principle