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1) Car insurance can work exactly like it currently does. The car owner's insurance is liable by default, however if the car itself is in some way at fault (pe

1) Car insurance can work exactly like it currently does. The car owner's insurance is liable by default, however if the car itself is in some way at fault (performing out-of-spec), then the insurance company goes after the car company. This can already happen if something like brakes fail or accelerator gets stuck. 2 & 3) Yes there are some edge cases that you can't train for, but same with humans. What do humans do in an edge case like a torrential downpour? Simply pull over. Even if there are edge cases, consider that humans are pretty bad drivers on average, over 1.25 million deaths per year, and 50 million injuries in the US alone. Suppose that in a couple years, self driving cars are not perfect due to the edge cases, and still cause 250k deaths / year. Would you allow them at that point? Even with those stats we should consider only allowing self-driving cars and begin to outlaw human drivers.

yumraj 7y ago
Car insurance: I had made a simplified argument, but to itemize, auto insurance may work the same for auto-theft and some liability coverage. But, it definitely cannot work the same for anything remotely related to driver (or in this case self-driving system's) fault. Edge Cases: Humans use their brain and adapt. Self driving systems have no concept of adapting, hence the result is undefined. > over 1.25 million deaths per year, and 50 million injuries in the US alone. In US in 2016 there were 36,750 fatalities[0][1], so much much lower than the 1.25 million number you're using. So, no, personally I will not prefer self-driving cars if they are not perfect due to the edge cases, and still cause 250k deaths / year And the reason is simple, and why throwing statistics is now the right approach: I'd rather have my life in my hands and my driving where I can take a corrective defensive action than rely on an AI model where it is unpredictable when the lightning will strike and a bug/untrained edge case will kill me. I will prefer to be in control. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year#cite_note-9 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in... [1] https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812749 https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/...
- jdsully 7y ago
  > But, it definitely cannot work the same for anything remotely related to driver (or in this case self-driving system's) fault. Why not?
  - yumraj 7y ago
    Because I'm not the one driving the car, I'm merely sitting in it. Think of it this way, do you take auto insurance for a cab ride, no you don't, because you're not driving it.
    - jdsully 7y ago
      That all depends on the contract with whatever service your using. It would be totally legal for the cab driver to make you sign a contract making you liable for any damages. I'd be very unlikely to sign for a cab ride, but I might if I had my own self driving car depending on how reliable they were.
      - yumraj 7y ago
        Anything is possible. My topmost comment said these are open questions, as in undefined. I, as in IMHO, highly doubt it would be like you're describing, but it is equally likely that it may be like how you're describing, it's just an open question. In fact, a couple of years ago there was a small event at Tim Draper's Draper University in San Mateo about how auto insurance would look in the world of self-driving cars and it was very clear that at least till that point there was no consensus. I haven't seen anything to suggest if that has changed since then.
- aeternum 7y ago
  Thanks for the correction, the 1.25 million number is worldwide, not US https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/ https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/ Self driving systems however do adapt. Most companies are using neural networks which can be retrained based on their mistakes. Unlike a human, they can also be trained on each and every crash for which sensor data is available.

yumraj 7y ago

Car insurance: I had made a simplified argument, but to itemize, auto insurance may work the same for auto-theft and some liability coverage. But, it definitely cannot work the same for anything remotely related to driver (or in this case self-driving system's) fault. Edge Cases: Humans use their brain and adapt. Self driving systems have no concept of adapting, hence the result is undefined. > over 1.25 million deaths per year, and 50 million injuries in the US alone. In US in 2016 there were 36,750 fatalities[0][1], so much much lower than the 1.25 million number you're using. So, no, personally I will not prefer self-driving cars if they are not perfect due to the edge cases, and still cause 250k deaths / year And the reason is simple, and why throwing statistics is now the right approach: I'd rather have my life in my hands and my driving where I can take a corrective defensive action than rely on an AI model where it is unpredictable when the lightning will strike and a bug/untrained edge case will kill me. I will prefer to be in control. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year#cite_note-9 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in... [1] https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812749 https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/...

jdsully 7y ago
> But, it definitely cannot work the same for anything remotely related to driver (or in this case self-driving system's) fault. Why not?
- yumraj 7y ago
  Because I'm not the one driving the car, I'm merely sitting in it. Think of it this way, do you take auto insurance for a cab ride, no you don't, because you're not driving it.
  - jdsully 7y ago
    That all depends on the contract with whatever service your using. It would be totally legal for the cab driver to make you sign a contract making you liable for any damages. I'd be very unlikely to sign for a cab ride, but I might if I had my own self driving car depending on how reliable they were.
    - yumraj 7y ago
      Anything is possible. My topmost comment said these are open questions, as in undefined. I, as in IMHO, highly doubt it would be like you're describing, but it is equally likely that it may be like how you're describing, it's just an open question. In fact, a couple of years ago there was a small event at Tim Draper's Draper University in San Mateo about how auto insurance would look in the world of self-driving cars and it was very clear that at least till that point there was no consensus. I haven't seen anything to suggest if that has changed since then.
aeternum 7y ago
Thanks for the correction, the 1.25 million number is worldwide, not US https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/ https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/ Self driving systems however do adapt. Most companies are using neural networks which can be retrained based on their mistakes. Unlike a human, they can also be trained on each and every crash for which sensor data is available.