3 ms·

Automation to replace every job under the sun, eventually

14 points by elorant 7y ago

Svip 7y ago
I hate the usage of the word 'inevitable' like this. Nothing is inevitable. There are some events that are going to be hard to prevent, like say the Earth being swallowed by the Sun (unless we could move the Earth out of harm's way?), but automation is not one of those. That's an easy one to prevent. We can just decide not to.
- ThomPete 7y ago
  That's not how things work. There is an advantage to automation. If you decide not to you are just leaving it to someone else to do it an be more competitive than you. That's what is meant with inevitability in this context. If you want to survive you don't have a choice.
- elsurudo 7y ago
  Maybe "inevitable" is too strong, but only slightly... Those entities that don't adopt automation will be outperformed and supplanted by those that do. It's a similar phenomenon with many technologies. Many people opposed cars, looms, cell phones... what happened to them?
- OrderlyTiamat 7y ago
  > but automation is not one of those. That's an easy one to prevent. We can just decide not to. I agree with you in sentiment, however that last sentence contains a deceptive concept in it- who is the collective "we" that would have to do the deciding, and do they have a history of taking such choices?
  - Svip 7y ago
    Of course I was trying to keep the comment brief, but "we" in this case is humanity. And the "choice" in this scenario is not automating every job, as the article suggests. If we automate 99% of jobs, it would still not meet the proposed conclusion of the article. In a more realistic sense of 'choosing' not to automate, it will largely come from disagreements over the subject itself. It will not be that all humans get together and decide it, but rather that a significant portion of humans won't have any part in it. But from a pure historical viewpoint, inevitability is a fallacy.
bootloop 7y ago
Well, the last paragraph says it all. For me it's crazy that people fight for jobs which could be done by robots just so an enslaved human can get his fair share of food. Let's shift focus to how we can provide this in a world where not everybody has to work. (And we can start with the current situation where not everyone has work or can't work).
- bootloop 7y ago
  Also want to add that I don't believe all jobs can be automated but resolving the issues would allow us to actively working towards more automation and not only because companies want to reduce their costs to maximise profits.
- nobody0 7y ago
  I wonder if Andrew Yang's basic income plan is workable.
platz 7y ago
Does this really need to be on the front page
- onion2k 7y ago
  The people who upvoted it certainly think so.
- Bjo 7y ago
  she hot
krzat 7y ago
Replacing humans with human level AIs isn't really automation, is it? Their work will not be automatic. Also, humans will eventually start improving their biological capabilities, so human level AI is a moving target.
tekkk 7y ago
When the robots can create meaningful art, color me impressed. But all in all, what a silly article. Sure we have been automating all mundane work since time beginning, but the article doesnt really give credit to the sheer complexity of the tasks humans are capable. We are a product of billions of years of evolution so any neural network used to simulate our brains has a lot of catching up to do. But I guess as a CEO of AI startup you have to build up the hype with non-informative predictions like this. Thank goodness they didnt throw out dates for specific tasks to be fully automated. They dont really explain the major problems what stops us from doing these super-duper robots already.
- freeflight 7y ago
  Art is in the eye of the beholder. Just like it ain't only "mundane" work that is being replaced [0]. Imho right now most of humanity is still in denial about the consequences of these changes, just like with climate change. But in the long-term automation will leave us with a whole ton of "surplus humans" that will struggle to find any meaningful economic activity to engage in to finance their own survival. Right now a whole economy exists around these mundane jobs: All of the warehouse workers [1], delivery personnel, and a ton of others do their "mundane" jobs in the logistics chain, because that's what they can do. For many people, their driver's license is the only real qualification they have. But in the long term, not even a pilot's license will be a qualification that ensures employment [2]. What happens to these people once autonomous driving becomes adopted on a larger scale? Are they all gonna start working at Boston Dynamics, creating more autonomous tools? Will they all learn to code and start writing apps? Will they become successful artists? I seriously doubt that. Will they work in newly created auxilareily industries? Maybe a few of them, but the "new jobs created" from this will never make up the number of jobs lost because the change to automation is also an increase in efficiency of productivity, meaning that the same work can now be done with way less effort. [0] https://www.technologyreview.com/s/603431/as-goldman-embraces-automation-even-the-masters-of-the-universe-are-threatened/ https://www.technologyreview.com/s/603431/as-goldman-embrace... [1] https://youtu.be/5iV_hB08Uns https://youtu.be/5iV_hB08Uns [2] https://pressroom.ups.com/pressroom/ContentDetailsViewer.page?ConceptType=PressReleases&id=1569933965476-404 https://pressroom.ups.com/pressroom/ContentDetailsViewer.pag...

14 points by elorant 7y ago

Svip 7y ago

I hate the usage of the word 'inevitable' like this. Nothing is inevitable. There are some events that are going to be hard to prevent, like say the Earth being swallowed by the Sun (unless we could move the Earth out of harm's way?), but automation is not one of those. That's an easy one to prevent. We can just decide not to.

ThomPete 7y ago
That's not how things work. There is an advantage to automation. If you decide not to you are just leaving it to someone else to do it an be more competitive than you. That's what is meant with inevitability in this context. If you want to survive you don't have a choice.
elsurudo 7y ago
Maybe "inevitable" is too strong, but only slightly... Those entities that don't adopt automation will be outperformed and supplanted by those that do. It's a similar phenomenon with many technologies. Many people opposed cars, looms, cell phones... what happened to them?
OrderlyTiamat 7y ago
> but automation is not one of those. That's an easy one to prevent. We can just decide not to. I agree with you in sentiment, however that last sentence contains a deceptive concept in it- who is the collective "we" that would have to do the deciding, and do they have a history of taking such choices?
- Svip 7y ago
  Of course I was trying to keep the comment brief, but "we" in this case is humanity. And the "choice" in this scenario is not automating every job, as the article suggests. If we automate 99% of jobs, it would still not meet the proposed conclusion of the article. In a more realistic sense of 'choosing' not to automate, it will largely come from disagreements over the subject itself. It will not be that all humans get together and decide it, but rather that a significant portion of humans won't have any part in it. But from a pure historical viewpoint, inevitability is a fallacy.

bootloop 7y ago

Well, the last paragraph says it all. For me it's crazy that people fight for jobs which could be done by robots just so an enslaved human can get his fair share of food. Let's shift focus to how we can provide this in a world where not everybody has to work. (And we can start with the current situation where not everyone has work or can't work).

bootloop 7y ago
Also want to add that I don't believe all jobs can be automated but resolving the issues would allow us to actively working towards more automation and not only because companies want to reduce their costs to maximise profits.
nobody0 7y ago
I wonder if Andrew Yang's basic income plan is workable.

platz 7y ago

Does this really need to be on the front page

onion2k 7y ago
The people who upvoted it certainly think so.
Bjo 7y ago
she hot

krzat 7y ago

Replacing humans with human level AIs isn't really automation, is it? Their work will not be automatic. Also, humans will eventually start improving their biological capabilities, so human level AI is a moving target.

tekkk 7y ago

When the robots can create meaningful art, color me impressed. But all in all, what a silly article. Sure we have been automating all mundane work since time beginning, but the article doesnt really give credit to the sheer complexity of the tasks humans are capable. We are a product of billions of years of evolution so any neural network used to simulate our brains has a lot of catching up to do. But I guess as a CEO of AI startup you have to build up the hype with non-informative predictions like this. Thank goodness they didnt throw out dates for specific tasks to be fully automated. They dont really explain the major problems what stops us from doing these super-duper robots already.

freeflight 7y ago
Art is in the eye of the beholder. Just like it ain't only "mundane" work that is being replaced [0]. Imho right now most of humanity is still in denial about the consequences of these changes, just like with climate change. But in the long-term automation will leave us with a whole ton of "surplus humans" that will struggle to find any meaningful economic activity to engage in to finance their own survival. Right now a whole economy exists around these mundane jobs: All of the warehouse workers [1], delivery personnel, and a ton of others do their "mundane" jobs in the logistics chain, because that's what they can do. For many people, their driver's license is the only real qualification they have. But in the long term, not even a pilot's license will be a qualification that ensures employment [2]. What happens to these people once autonomous driving becomes adopted on a larger scale? Are they all gonna start working at Boston Dynamics, creating more autonomous tools? Will they all learn to code and start writing apps? Will they become successful artists? I seriously doubt that. Will they work in newly created auxilareily industries? Maybe a few of them, but the "new jobs created" from this will never make up the number of jobs lost because the change to automation is also an increase in efficiency of productivity, meaning that the same work can now be done with way less effort. [0] https://www.technologyreview.com/s/603431/as-goldman-embraces-automation-even-the-masters-of-the-universe-are-threatened/ https://www.technologyreview.com/s/603431/as-goldman-embrace... [1] https://youtu.be/5iV_hB08Uns https://youtu.be/5iV_hB08Uns [2] https://pressroom.ups.com/pressroom/ContentDetailsViewer.page?ConceptType=PressReleases&id=1569933965476-404 https://pressroom.ups.com/pressroom/ContentDetailsViewer.pag...