I think this is a very salient point, about the dealership model being a hindrance. It's like Sears and Amazon, at some point the incumbent leader can't change

I think this is a very salient point, about the dealership model being a hindrance. It's like Sears and Amazon, at some point the incumbent leader can't change fast enough and the new market is run by new companies. I do think it will take a long time for the big 3 to die, they will probably go all trucks and big SUVs (as Ford has essentially done already), and leave the car market to EVs. However, I do not think that Tesla will be the big winner. They will be much like Apple and prosper, but Nissan with the Leaf (also Renault with the Zoe in Europe) and now Kia and Hyundai with their small electric SUVs are perfectly placed. They have the big manufacturer experience and millions of miles on their solid EV platforms. They could create an EV Camry/Accord-killer tomorrow--actually, I'm surprised they haven't already. Edited to add: this is buried in the Taycan thread, and I wanted to comment on that too. The Taycan is an awesome car and will give Tesla's model S performance a run for their money. But that's it. Porsche is a niche car-maker, and track enthusiasts a niche of that niche. I suppose that being owned by VW (or is it the other way around) just means the technology and know-how will trickle down into the mass market, but that hasn't happened yet, and Tesla is already there with the Model 3.