4 ms·
I have been aware for about 20 years that on technology trends, all the car companies will release electric cars somewhere near 2020. And that once they do the
by btilly 7y ago
I have been aware for about 20 years that on technology trends, all the car companies will release electric cars somewhere near 2020. And that once they do the agenda of manufacturers and car dealers will be at odds. Manufacturers will want to sell electric because that is the future, and car dealers will want to push gas cars to capture the future maintenance revenue. With the result that manufacturers will find that actually selling those electric cars is an uphill battle.
The fact that "near 2020" is now "this year or next" doesn't change the rest of the prediction. I would therefore be willing to take a bet that most traditional car companies will be out of the car business in not very many years. This means that there is a giant market share to be captured by new car brands.
Tesla is the best known here. But I would also suggest keeping an eye on the many Chinese brands. I consider, for example, SAIC more of a competitive threat to Telsla than Porsche.
- 205guy 7y agoI think this is a very salient point, about the dealership model being a hindrance. It's like Sears and Amazon, at some point the incumbent leader can't change fast enough and the new market is run by new companies. I do think it will take a long time for the big 3 to die, they will probably go all trucks and big SUVs (as Ford has essentially done already), and leave the car market to EVs. However, I do not think that Tesla will be the big winner. They will be much like Apple and prosper, but Nissan with the Leaf (also Renault with the Zoe in Europe) and now Kia and Hyundai with their small electric SUVs are perfectly placed. They have the big manufacturer experience and millions of miles on their solid EV platforms. They could create an EV Camry/Accord-killer tomorrow--actually, I'm surprised they haven't already. Edited to add: this is buried in the Taycan thread, and I wanted to comment on that too. The Taycan is an awesome car and will give Tesla's model S performance a run for their money. But that's it. Porsche is a niche car-maker, and track enthusiasts a niche of that niche. I suppose that being owned by VW (or is it the other way around) just means the technology and know-how will trickle down into the mass market, but that hasn't happened yet, and Tesla is already there with the Model 3.
- matthewdgreen 7y ago“They could create an EV Camry/Accord-killer tomorrow--actually, I'm surprised they haven't already.” The fact that they haven’t tried is the root of the problem. And, I suspect, the problem that will continue to plague them for at least a few more critical years.
- dependsontheq 7y agoMost OEMs know that and redefined their dealer relationships in the last years https://www.cbtnews.com/what-does-vws-new-european-dealer-agreement-mean-for-us-dealers/ https://www.cbtnews.com/what-does-vws-new-european-dealer-ag...
- btilly 7y agoThat helps in Europe, but not in the USA where laws regulate the manufacturer/dealer relationship. Tesla was very careful to not have dealerships, and fought several legal battles over the issue. But the traditional manufacturers have no such choice.