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$143M GAAP / $342M Non-GAAP Net Income. $371M free cash flow. GAAP Gross Margin 18.9%. That is before G3 comes online which will, I believe, have an upward cas

• rainyMammoth 7y ago
  your full disclosure is really sad. You are buying into a cult with some life changing saving (kid's college) It might work though as long as there are enough investors believing in this irrational cult (the bigger idiot theory). You don't want to be the last one holding the bag. Edit2: Removing the downvote comment and adding why I think they are overvalued: They did a very good job capturing the early market given the void left by traditional auto makers. The next 5 years will be very tough though. They will be competing on the efficiency of the production chain. Toyota and Volkswagen are unbeatable at that game.
  • deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  • greenpizza13 7y ago
    Too mean.
  • KukicAdnan 7y ago
    This ain't it chief.
  • kolbe 7y ago
    Give some support to your claim. If you don’t have the financial literacy to support it, then maybe reconsider hitting that “Reply” button next time.
  • slg 7y ago
    >Edit: downvoted as expected proving my point... I will never understand how some people become more confident in their ideas the more other people disagree with them.
    • arminiusreturns 7y ago
      The downvote button isn't for disagreement ffs!
      • kick 7y ago
        Paul Graham: I think it's ok to use the up and down arrows to express agreement. Obviously the uparrows aren't only for applauding politeness, so it seems reasonable that the downarrows aren't only for booing rudeness. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=117171 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=117171
        • arminiusreturns 7y ago
          I stand corrected...
          • OnlineGladiator 7y ago
            It's also just human nature. People will upvote what they like and downvote what they dislike, and for some that just means downvoting whoever disagrees with them.
        • vonmoltke 7y ago
          For what it's worth, I think PG is completely wrong on this. The site was designed, via progressive lightening, to censor downvoted posts. His statement is essentially permission to censor dissent and doesn't make for a healthy conversation.
          • Gibbon1 7y ago
            Hoovering up and aggregating commentary from those that actually produce content and then imposing a censorship regime on it is the point of HN.
  • julienchastang 7y ago
    I actually know somebody who did this but for AAPL many years back. At the time, I too thought he was insane, but it worked out very well for him. A propos TSLA price, the problem is they are about to face a lot more competition from companies with sophisticated, established, distribution networks, etc.
    • rainyMammoth 7y ago
      This is exactly what I think. They did a very good job capturing the early market given the void left by traditional auto makers. The next 5 years will be very tough. They will be competing on the efficiency of the production chain. Toyota and Volkswagen are unbeatable at that game. Regarding your story with AAPL: Good for him but how many others will we never hear about? Betting everything on a single stock is the number one mistake that amateur investors make.
      • greedo 7y ago
        Will Toyota have an EV available in numbers by 2024? I know they love their hybrid platform, and the fuelcell car, but I'm unaware of any EV plans.
        • dragonwriter 7y ago
          > Will Toyota have an EV available in numbers by 2024? I know they love their hybrid platform, and the fuelcell car, but I'm unaware of any EV plans. FCEVs are as much EVs as BEVs, but yes, Toyota's first production BEV is being sold in Japan in 2020 with plans for India close behind. It's very much not designed for the preferences of the US market so I suspect we won't see it. https://www.motor1.com/news/376824/toyota-ultra-compact-bev-revealed/ https://www.motor1.com/news/376824/toyota-ultra-compact-bev-... They are also imminently launching an all-electric vehicle under the Lexus brand, with plans to electrify across the brand by 2025: https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1125653_lexus-confirms-first-electric-car-for-november-intro-plug-in-hybrid-soon-after https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1125653_lexus-confirms-...
      • hw 7y ago
  • kick 7y ago
    News Guidelines: Please don't comment about the voting on comments. It never does any good, and it makes boring reading. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html Paul Graham: I think it's ok to use the up and down arrows to express agreement. Obviously the uparrows aren't only for applauding politeness, so it seems reasonable that the downarrows aren't only for booing rudeness. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=117171 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=117171
    • rainyMammoth 7y ago
      Good point, I removed it.
    • badfrog 7y ago
      It's not obvious that an 11 year old comment from somebody who's not really involved in the community anymore should be taken as gospel.
      • manigandham 7y ago
        It's natural though. Consensus is that votes are for both post quality and agreement. HN seems to be generally good at focusing on the former.
      • wglb 7y ago
        It has been regularly reinforced by dang.
    • sjg007 7y ago
      I think people should get points for sparking discussions. So since you generate a lot of replies you should get some points for that. You can have a 1 point thread that has 10+ comments on it.
      • jiveturkey 7y ago
        Agreed. Been wanting to post this comment for some time now: When comments are downvoted, sometimes to oblivion, yet have many and deep set of replies, doesn't that indicate something wrong with the downvotes? The point is to have a substantive discussion and in the case (which is common) I'm noting, the downvoted comment has done just that. I think any comment should get implied/automatic upvotes for each reply, on a power scale. Say a floor of 2 or maybe 3, then after that 1 or more points for each child comment increasing as the number of comments increase. I realize that system is subject to abuse, but does it really matter? Whereas OTOH it prevents the echo chamber for hot button topics. At this time, the now actually dead GP comment has 30 children! It is by definition a worthy comment.
  • rconti 7y ago
    I'm downvoting because you're whining about downvotes rather than taking responsibility for your discourse.
  • trhway 7y ago
    man, i downvoted you (and usually i strongly dislike and avoid meta discussions on downvoting or being downvoted, yet it seems here it warrants an explanation, at least i'd have liked if somebody gave me a one in a situation like yours) because you're making gross logical mistake: > You are buying into a cult with some life changing saving (kid's college) he never said that he is using kid's college savings and/or life changing savings. You ascribed that meaning to what he said, while he may have (and probably) said completely different thing - using small money on TSLA playing the chance that it may convert those small money into the life changing/kid college savings.
    • zaroth 7y ago
      Indeed this. If it 20x’s like I think it might (full Robotaxi vision realized) in the next 10 years, then kids will be all set for college, or their first house, their choice. If not we will all have to work harder, but it’s not like I had the college fund saved already and then bet it all, or am living life as if TSLA is already at $2,000. How can I not bet with someone like Elon Musk? Why bet against him? I want to live in the world where Elon and Tesla succeeds. It’s a win-win that I could personally profit from it too. Very rarely do we get a company IPOing so early in their lifespan with real ideas and plans to change the world, and the intellectual capital to possibly even succeed. I think it’s a once in a decade opportunity. I hate being a skeptic against someone with an actual positive vision for the future and a strong theoretical backing of how they will get there. The idea that Toyota is going to eat their lunch to me flies in the face of everything we know about innovation and company culture. The legacy companies are frankly totally blindsided by this EV revolution. While legacy auto employee unions strike, and legacy auto company plants close down, TSLA moves from a 3% SAM to a 30% SAM (by adding trucks and crossovers to their served market) over the next 3 years. If their truck is as revolutionary in that market segment as the Model 3 is in its market segment, they won’t even need Robotaxi to hit a market cap of $200B.
• appleiigs 7y ago
  My friend is long TSLA because he hopes it will pay for his Tesla.
  • deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  • xkjkls 7y ago
    That sounds pretty weird when you talk about it. Like I'm long Aetna because I hope it will pay for my colonoscopy.
    • appleiigs 7y ago
      It's not weird actually. Peter Lynch would walk around shopping malls and see what people were wearing and buying. The next thing HN downvoters are going to say is that a good business is not necessarily a good investment. However, it's investing in what you know - which is another Peter Lynch idea.
      • xkjkls 7y ago
        A number of investors, Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett, especially act as if their process is less sophisticated than it is. Sure, maybe Peter Lynch had a few ideas cued up by walking through shopping malls, but the guy could also read a balance sheet.
• steelframe 7y ago
  I don't mean to lecture or suggest your decision is unsound, but note that the expected opportunity cost of investing in any given stock vs. an index ETF over 9 years is about an 85% return.
  • appleiigs 7y ago
    why did you pick 9 years? When you use an arbitrary number like that, it looks like cherry picking.
    • thebruce87m 7y ago
      The OP mentioned 9 years.
    • deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
    • grumpy8 7y ago
      imho was still a fair question, no need to downvote. Not arguing with the index argument, but I've had finance "experts" trying to pull similar tricks on me by using weird years, etc.
      • reitzensteinm 7y ago
        There's a big difference between "these specific 9 years" and "the average 9 year span". It's a lot harder to make cherry picking arguments with the latter. Flip the bozo bit xor conman bit on anyone using the former.
    • deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
  • a13n 7y ago
    How is this calculated? Simply by taking the average of every stock you could possibly invest in? On NASDAQ + NYSE?
• threeseed 7y ago
  Not sure why people think long term Tesla is in an amazing position. Their market share can only go down. All of the car companies have or are releasing cars this year/next and are significantly more capitalised. Some of these cars are superior to Tesla e.g. Porsche Taycan and their ability to share platforms between brands helps to amortise costs. As we've seen with Summon their FSD program does not look like coming out anytime soon and their inability to be profitable means they can't invest in it or even fundamentals like product refreshes.
  • mulcahey 7y ago
    They can significantly grow with declining market share if the market for electric cars itself grows significantly. That market is currently < 1% of all cars sold.
    • braythwayt 7y ago
      Consider Apple, which at one time was making more than 50% of the margin in the global market for smartphones, while holding a declining share of unit sales. They did all right. I’m not a huge Tesla fan, but the idea that they might become an enormously profitable company without turning into one of those conglomerates that sells cars at every price point seems reasonable, especially in an age where the margins will be in tech and services rather than in selling steel bent into the shape of a car.
  • dv_dt 7y ago
    Market share can go down while market size for electric vehicles increases with a positive profit growth for Tesla. But I agree that, as an investment, Tesla stock prices are something the company has to grow into not something that is reflective of in hand performance - and there is always risk there.
  • Sohcahtoa82 7y ago
    > Some of these cars are superior to Tesla e.g. Porsche Taycan Depends on your metrics. IMO, the Model 3 Performance is the superior car. Half the price, quicker, longer range, and has access to the largest fast-charging network in the country.
• navigatesol 7y ago
  Another miracle quarter before a capital raise. If you don't think Tesla are paying fast and loose with their books, while at the same time playing games in China, I don't know what to tell you. Silicon Valley's an easy place to sucker.
  • gamblor956 7y ago
    It's very easy to manipulate financial results without illegally cooking the books. It all comes down to timing when you incur/pay expenses and when you record sales. Tesla has openly engaged in this in prior quarters, which is why their stellar quarters are usually followed by abysmal quarters. Cooking the books would involve changing the actual numbers. Not many people are alleging this.
    • dmode 7y ago
      You can play with your net income numbers, but your top line revenue, gross margin, cash flow, and cash on hand are hard to manipulate
      • navigatesol 7y ago
        >cash flow, and cash on hand are hard to manipulate Cash flow and cash on hand can be easily manipulated by not paying bills. Net Income can be manipulated one-time items. This will all come out in the 10Q, but in the meantime, Elon realiszed that people will not lend money to cash-burning "startups", so we get another "profit".
      • gamblor956 7y ago
        Those items are even easier to manipulate. When do I book this x million of parts? I could book it even we reserve the shipment (accelerate expense) or when we receive the invoice (standard) or when we pay it several months late (defer the expense). And that's just one transaction that feeds into one line item. There are a lot more opportunities to play with the financial numbers.
    • navigatesol 7y ago
• ksec 7y ago
  >I told my kids either the shares will pay for their college, or they may need some scholarships. Assuming they are teens and old enough to think for themselves. I wonder if they felt safe and happily going out to play or working their ass off trying to get Scholarships. I vaguely remember Tesla discussion on HN not long ago of it being cash strapped and was on the verge of bankrupt. ( Or something similar ). It is truly amazing how they managed to crush all naysayers and sceptics.
  • sjg007 7y ago
    My kids are going to work for scholarships if college is in their future. I should have but didn't because my parents didn't understand the game and nobody told me otherwise. There is a balance to this though but I will provide all of the supports I can to help them be the individuals they are.
    • NotSammyHagar 7y ago
      Please don't xplain the game you are referring to. I had scholarships but I don't get the game.
      • aftbit 7y ago
        If you apply to enough scholarships you will get some. Anyone paying for their full cost of education is a chump.
      • NotSammyHagar 7y ago
        I hate that can't edit my comment up above, shouldn't type on the bus. I was trying to say "Please explain the game". I disagree that college is a scam. I went many years ago when it wasn't that expensive, I had a job and also scholarships, was able to pay as I went with some parental help. But it was nothing like today, where it costs 30k a year at a reasonable state school. My generation has not met our responsibilities to maintain our countries infrastructure including educational infrastructure. It doesn't help that much that I have argued and voted against the direction of making education ever more expensive (in part because of lack of state funding).
• refurb 7y ago
  Highly confident of exceeding 360k deliveries for 2019. Musk got in trouble for tweeting that he’d hit 500,000 this year.
  • gibolt 7y ago
    *Run rate of 500,000
    • zaroth 7y ago
      From their 2018 Q4 report; “Barring unexpected challenges with Gigafactory Shanghai, we are targeting annualized Model 3 output in excess of 500,000 units sometime between Q4 of 2019 and Q2 of 2020.” Musk later tweeted he thought it would come in at the earlier Q4 side of the guidance. 500k annualized is 9,600/wk. They past 7k/wk with Fremont and want to be at 3k/wk in GF3 by the end of the year. I think they will guide a range of 600-750k units in 2020. It depends how quickly they can get GF3 up to 5k/wk and how much additional capacity they will bring on for Model Y in Summer 2020.
  • xkjkls 7y ago
    Why would they produce 500,000 if they only are delivering 360,000.
• paulpauper 7y ago
  just goes to show how media narratives are often wrong. everyone for the past 2 years has been saying tesla is dead due to losses and Elon Musk's supposed "erratic behavior" (that is what the media labels you if you are successful but fail to comply with what they deem to be conventional social etiquette ), yet Tesla has consistently shown an ability to prove naysayers wrong. Tesla generates tons of cash flow from business operations, similar to Amazon despite large one-time losses and not needing to advertise. This is analogous to opening a Subway or McDonald's franchise and initially taking on a lot of debt, but the business of selling burgers is profitable. Analogous to a flipping a light switch, as soon as Tesla stops spending on cap-ex for expansion, Tesla will instantly go from losing a lot of money each quarter to making a lot of profit. Also,Tesla can raise debt so cheaply and so easily, that its stock actually went up when it did a secondary offer. Let that sink in: Tesla stock went up despite diluting itself, which virtually never happens. That’s like being paid to borrow money, which give you an idea of how advantageous of a position Tesla is in. Tesla is possibly the only company in existence that gains value when it takes on debt. Just goes to show how media keeps being wrong about Tesla running out money being a concern. In theory they can raise as much money as they want and the price won’t go down. Ford and GM need to spend billion on adverting a year to make people aware their new models exist, let alone want to buy them. Tesla gets free PR though its spokesperson and CEO , Elon Musk, and his Twitter account and its captive audience of millions of followers, which is way better than some crappy, million-dollar TV ad that 99.999% of viewers will fast-forward, forget, or ignore. And then the media is glued to Musk's twitter account, so anything Musk tweets out is amplified, all for free. Tesla is going to go much higher. I think $1000 share within 4 years is easily doable.
• anjc 7y ago
  > I told my kids either the shares will pay for their college, or they may need some scholarships. Probably not the best strategy to put essential money into a growth stock during an unprecedented bull run and expect the growth to continue for another 9 years. The likes of TSLA being at a higher price than today in 20-30 years are decent, but in 9 years? Very uncertain. See: every growth stock that hit a peak in 2000, and what happened in the following 9 years. At the very least, it's probably not the best idea to tell your kids that this is what you're doing.