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Some of the factors for this increase seem to be: - Explosion in the sales of Crossovers/SUVs/Trucks - Smartphone usage among pedestrians - More people l

Some of the factors for this increase seem to be: - Explosion in the sales of Crossovers/SUVs/Trucks - Smartphone usage among pedestrians - More people living in cities - More people using bike-shares & scooters - Deterioration of public transit resulting in more drivers - Increase in ride sharing resulting in more drivers The crossover/SUV/Truck sales is the most interesting to me. I wonder if that will self-perpetuate, since the presence of larger vehicles seem to make other drivers feel less safe, which make them want larger vehicles, which makes the remaining sedan owners feel less safe....

AlexandrB 7y ago
The larger vehicles will persist until the next time oil is over $100/barrel and drivers have to contemplate the ongoing cost of operating their SUVs. Same thing happened in mid-to-late 2000s IIRC.
NikolaNovak 7y ago
I fear the answer is yes. I have absolutely failed to convince anybody that they don't need an SUV. Doesn't matter. They want an SUV. Not a hatchback of same practicality but better turning/braking; not a Minivan of comparable bulk and price but hugely increased practicality (for a large-family north-american suburb lifestyle; everything is relative:) - a large heavy SUV with tiny brakes is what they want. (And when I say "They", that includes my wife and now we have one too :-< ) I have tried to convince with equation of "chance of being in accident multiplied by chance of dying in an accident", with the idea that you can work on either of the variables to decrease the total; and indicated that maaaybe in SUV you are safer if you crash, but with a smaller more nimble better visibility car you are less likely to crash. This makes no progress - most people's attitude is "When I crash", not "If I crash".
- briandear 7y ago
  > smaller more nimble better visibility car Small cars don’t necessarily have better visibility. I have far better visibility in my Q7 than I did in my Audi A3. And a smaller car doesn’t do much to help against an 18 wheeler or UPS truck. If I am in a crash in a Civic, I am more likely to die than a crash in a Jeep Cherokee Smaller cars are not safer, because physics. An SUV built after 2012 (that’s when mandatory stability control arrived) is safer than a car. The idea that being nimble keeps you safer is silly. Most accidents don’t give you enough notice before they’re about to happen. Also, I would argue my turbo Q7 is far more nimble than the Prius. The Hyundai Accent is the most dangerous car to be in, based on fatality rates. The Jeep Cherokee has zero fatalities from 2012-2015. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorzelany/2017/07/06/deathtraps-and-life-savers-cars-registering-the-most-and-least-fatalities/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorzelany/2017/07/06/deathtr...
gullywhumper 7y ago
> - Smartphone usage among pedestrians and drivers
jeffchien 7y ago
> The crossover/SUV/Truck sales is the most interesting to me. I wonder if that will self-perpetuate, since the presence of larger vehicles seem to make other drivers feel less safe, which make them want larger vehicles, which makes the remaining sedan owners feel less safe.... It's not just the mass of the vehicle too. Here in southern California it definitely seems like there's an arms race of headlight brightness where the victims are smaller/lower cars, especially those without dimming mirrors. I really wish the authorities (or maybe insurance) started looking into headlight brightness/angling.
JohnTHaller 7y ago
Smartphone usage among drivers is a far bigger cause of deaths than smartphone usage among pedestrians.

AlexandrB 7y ago

The larger vehicles will persist until the next time oil is over $100/barrel and drivers have to contemplate the ongoing cost of operating their SUVs. Same thing happened in mid-to-late 2000s IIRC.

NikolaNovak 7y ago

I fear the answer is yes. I have absolutely failed to convince anybody that they don't need an SUV. Doesn't matter. They want an SUV. Not a hatchback of same practicality but better turning/braking; not a Minivan of comparable bulk and price but hugely increased practicality (for a large-family north-american suburb lifestyle; everything is relative:) - a large heavy SUV with tiny brakes is what they want. (And when I say "They", that includes my wife and now we have one too :-< ) I have tried to convince with equation of "chance of being in accident multiplied by chance of dying in an accident", with the idea that you can work on either of the variables to decrease the total; and indicated that maaaybe in SUV you are safer if you crash, but with a smaller more nimble better visibility car you are less likely to crash. This makes no progress - most people's attitude is "When I crash", not "If I crash".

briandear 7y ago
> smaller more nimble better visibility car Small cars don’t necessarily have better visibility. I have far better visibility in my Q7 than I did in my Audi A3. And a smaller car doesn’t do much to help against an 18 wheeler or UPS truck. If I am in a crash in a Civic, I am more likely to die than a crash in a Jeep Cherokee Smaller cars are not safer, because physics. An SUV built after 2012 (that’s when mandatory stability control arrived) is safer than a car. The idea that being nimble keeps you safer is silly. Most accidents don’t give you enough notice before they’re about to happen. Also, I would argue my turbo Q7 is far more nimble than the Prius. The Hyundai Accent is the most dangerous car to be in, based on fatality rates. The Jeep Cherokee has zero fatalities from 2012-2015. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorzelany/2017/07/06/deathtraps-and-life-savers-cars-registering-the-most-and-least-fatalities/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorzelany/2017/07/06/deathtr...

gullywhumper 7y ago

> - Smartphone usage among pedestrians and drivers

jeffchien 7y ago

> The crossover/SUV/Truck sales is the most interesting to me. I wonder if that will self-perpetuate, since the presence of larger vehicles seem to make other drivers feel less safe, which make them want larger vehicles, which makes the remaining sedan owners feel less safe.... It's not just the mass of the vehicle too. Here in southern California it definitely seems like there's an arms race of headlight brightness where the victims are smaller/lower cars, especially those without dimming mirrors. I really wish the authorities (or maybe insurance) started looking into headlight brightness/angling.

JohnTHaller 7y ago

Smartphone usage among drivers is a far bigger cause of deaths than smartphone usage among pedestrians.