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Tesla has 2, so that's 4x in just three years. There is no reason for VW to not build more, if the demand is there. If the demand is not there, then it can be

Tesla has 2, so that's 4x in just three years. There is no reason for VW to not build more, if the demand is there. If the demand is not there, then it can become a financial disaster.

toomuchtodo 7y ago
> There is no reason for VW to not build more, if the demand is there. If the demand is not there, then it can become a financial disaster. The problem is that EVs are going to cannibalize the legacy auto industry. It takes far less people [1], far less parts (typical combustion engine has ~2k moving parts, a Tesla powertrain has ~17), just a much smaller supply chain overall [2] to deliver EVs. And these EVs will last much, much longer than your traditional combustion vehicles. Legacy automakers are fighting over the smaller pie that will be left over, hence the handwringing. Innovator's Dilemma [3]. Governments should be looking at the auto industry the same way they look at coal: upskill those who will stay, transition out those who a redundant. It's quite worse than coal, actually. Coal only employs ~50k people in the US. The auto industry employs over 7 million. [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/30/gm-strike-highlights-how-shift-to-electric-cars-puts-future-auto-jobs-at-risk.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/30/gm-strike-highlights-how-shi... [2] https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/IF11101.pdf https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/IF11101.pdf [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innovator%27s_Dilemma https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innovator%27s_Dilemma
- tomatotomato37 7y ago
  Most of those factors are actually beneficial for the corporations however; less parts and people means less logistical overhead eating away at profits. The increase in reliability is a questionable loss too as most consumers dump their current car every 6 years regardless if it still works or not in their effort to keep up with the Joneses. Beside battery wear will put a hard limit on car lifespan anyway since those giant things are going to be the labor equivalent of an engine swap in order to replace.
  - njarboe 7y ago
    The original model S could do a 90 second battery swap. Not sure about other Tesla models, but I sure hope they are still designed for easy battery replacement. I would guess they are as Elon Musk is hoping for the cars to eventually last a million miles.
    - toomuchtodo 7y ago
      They are no longer designed for replacement at that speed. That was designed to capture the full value of California ZEV credits, and is no longer necessary.
- the8472 7y ago
  On the other hand if the base models are cheaper to produce means that they can bring more premium features to a broader market. But even that strategy will only last for so long. Whenever autonomous fleets take over they'll sell even fewer vehicles per person.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
- emptysands 7y ago
  Will also be driven by demand. EVs are already cheaper to operate. If they are also cheaper to produce and support, then the alternative is not competitive. The result is then just delayed by historic capital and reallocation.
boznz 7y ago
Demand will be there once you can charge on every corner and they start making cars that don't cost double the gas equivalent
- natch 7y ago
  Someone on reddit recently bought a new Tesla for $30,000 after incentives (not counting savings on gas, oil, brake pads, and other maintenance). Sure that is double the price of some bottom rung cars but $30k is pretty common these days.
  - psychometry 7y ago
    Still, $30k is far from affordable for many people, whereas you can get plenty of decent ICE vehicles (e.g. Honda Fit) closer to 15k.
    - natch 7y ago
      But those come with a raft of ongoing issues ranging from safety to maintenance so you generally pay the same or more long term.
  - everdrive 7y ago
    That’s more a reflection of how much people are wasting money these days than what a “reasonable” car is.
    - natch 7y ago
      That’s a pretty uninformed opinion with an inflammatory word “wasting” given the benefits, but you are free to it.
- CameronNemo 7y ago
  Are you talking about list price or total cost of ownership?

Tesla has 2, so that's 4x in just three years. There is no reason for VW to not build more, if the demand is there. If the demand is not there, then it can become a financial disaster.

toomuchtodo 7y ago

> There is no reason for VW to not build more, if the demand is there. If the demand is not there, then it can become a financial disaster. The problem is that EVs are going to cannibalize the legacy auto industry. It takes far less people [1], far less parts (typical combustion engine has ~2k moving parts, a Tesla powertrain has ~17), just a much smaller supply chain overall [2] to deliver EVs. And these EVs will last much, much longer than your traditional combustion vehicles. Legacy automakers are fighting over the smaller pie that will be left over, hence the handwringing. Innovator's Dilemma [3]. Governments should be looking at the auto industry the same way they look at coal: upskill those who will stay, transition out those who a redundant. It's quite worse than coal, actually. Coal only employs ~50k people in the US. The auto industry employs over 7 million. [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/30/gm-strike-highlights-how-shift-to-electric-cars-puts-future-auto-jobs-at-risk.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/30/gm-strike-highlights-how-shi... [2] https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/IF11101.pdf https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/IF11101.pdf [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innovator%27s_Dilemma https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innovator%27s_Dilemma

tomatotomato37 7y ago
Most of those factors are actually beneficial for the corporations however; less parts and people means less logistical overhead eating away at profits. The increase in reliability is a questionable loss too as most consumers dump their current car every 6 years regardless if it still works or not in their effort to keep up with the Joneses. Beside battery wear will put a hard limit on car lifespan anyway since those giant things are going to be the labor equivalent of an engine swap in order to replace.
- njarboe 7y ago
  The original model S could do a 90 second battery swap. Not sure about other Tesla models, but I sure hope they are still designed for easy battery replacement. I would guess they are as Elon Musk is hoping for the cars to eventually last a million miles.
  - toomuchtodo 7y ago
    They are no longer designed for replacement at that speed. That was designed to capture the full value of California ZEV credits, and is no longer necessary.
the8472 7y ago
On the other hand if the base models are cheaper to produce means that they can bring more premium features to a broader market. But even that strategy will only last for so long. Whenever autonomous fleets take over they'll sell even fewer vehicles per person.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
emptysands 7y ago
Will also be driven by demand. EVs are already cheaper to operate. If they are also cheaper to produce and support, then the alternative is not competitive. The result is then just delayed by historic capital and reallocation.

boznz 7y ago

Demand will be there once you can charge on every corner and they start making cars that don't cost double the gas equivalent

natch 7y ago
Someone on reddit recently bought a new Tesla for $30,000 after incentives (not counting savings on gas, oil, brake pads, and other maintenance). Sure that is double the price of some bottom rung cars but $30k is pretty common these days.
- psychometry 7y ago
  Still, $30k is far from affordable for many people, whereas you can get plenty of decent ICE vehicles (e.g. Honda Fit) closer to 15k.
  - natch 7y ago
    But those come with a raft of ongoing issues ranging from safety to maintenance so you generally pay the same or more long term.
- everdrive 7y ago
  That’s more a reflection of how much people are wasting money these days than what a “reasonable” car is.
  - natch 7y ago
    That’s a pretty uninformed opinion with an inflammatory word “wasting” given the benefits, but you are free to it.
CameronNemo 7y ago
Are you talking about list price or total cost of ownership?