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Is it just me or does that seem low? How many ICE factories do they have currently? How many are they adding or renovating in these next couple years?
by CameronNemo 7y ago
Is it just me or does that seem low? How many ICE factories do they have currently? How many are they adding or renovating in these next couple years?
- AtlasBarfed 7y agoIt's at least a long-term economic commitment, not just prototypes or compliance cars. Those factory lines need production to offset the investment.
- ardit33 7y agoTesla has 2, so that's 4x in just three years. There is no reason for VW to not build more, if the demand is there. If the demand is not there, then it can become a financial disaster.
- toomuchtodo 7y ago> There is no reason for VW to not build more, if the demand is there. If the demand is not there, then it can become a financial disaster. The problem is that EVs are going to cannibalize the legacy auto industry. It takes far less people [1], far less parts (typical combustion engine has ~2k moving parts, a Tesla powertrain has ~17), just a much smaller supply chain overall [2] to deliver EVs. And these EVs will last much, much longer than your traditional combustion vehicles. Legacy automakers are fighting over the smaller pie that will be left over, hence the handwringing. Innovator's Dilemma [3]. Governments should be looking at the auto industry the same way they look at coal: upskill those who will stay, transition out those who a redundant. It's quite worse than coal, actually. Coal only employs ~50k people in the US. The auto industry employs over 7 million. [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/30/gm-strike-highlights-how-shift-to-electric-cars-puts-future-auto-jobs-at-risk.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/30/gm-strike-highlights-how-shi... [2] https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/IF11101.pdf https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/IF11101.pdf [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innovator%27s_Dilemma https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innovator%27s_Dilemma
- tomatotomato37 7y agoMost of those factors are actually beneficial for the corporations however; less parts and people means less logistical overhead eating away at profits. The increase in reliability is a questionable loss too as most consumers dump their current car every 6 years regardless if it still works or not in their effort to keep up with the Joneses. Beside battery wear will put a hard limit on car lifespan anyway since those giant things are going to be the labor equivalent of an engine swap in order to replace.
- njarboe 7y agoThe original model S could do a 90 second battery swap. Not sure about other Tesla models, but I sure hope they are still designed for easy battery replacement. I would guess they are as Elon Musk is hoping for the cars to eventually last a million miles.
- toomuchtodo 7y agoThey are no longer designed for replacement at that speed. That was designed to capture the full value of California ZEV credits, and is no longer necessary.
- the8472 7y agoOn the other hand if the base models are cheaper to produce means that they can bring more premium features to a broader market. But even that strategy will only last for so long. Whenever autonomous fleets take over they'll sell even fewer vehicles per person.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- emptysands 7y agoWill also be driven by demand. EVs are already cheaper to operate. If they are also cheaper to produce and support, then the alternative is not competitive. The result is then just delayed by historic capital and reallocation.
- boznz 7y agoDemand will be there once you can charge on every corner and they start making cars that don't cost double the gas equivalent
- natch 7y agoSomeone on reddit recently bought a new Tesla for $30,000 after incentives (not counting savings on gas, oil, brake pads, and other maintenance). Sure that is double the price of some bottom rung cars but $30k is pretty common these days.
- psychometry 7y agoStill, $30k is far from affordable for many people, whereas you can get plenty of decent ICE vehicles (e.g. Honda Fit) closer to 15k.
- natch 7y agoBut those come with a raft of ongoing issues ranging from safety to maintenance so you generally pay the same or more long term.
- everdrive 7y agoThat’s more a reflection of how much people are wasting money these days than what a “reasonable” car is.
- natch 7y agoThat’s a pretty uninformed opinion with an inflammatory word “wasting” given the benefits, but you are free to it.
- CameronNemo 7y agoAre you talking about list price or total cost of ownership?
- Ididntdothis 7y agoI think that’s actually quite a lot. Car factories are expensive and take a long time to build and optimize.
- pgeorgi 7y agoSome of them are factories they remodel from ICE to EV, so those decrease the delta by 2. For example the Zwickau site that starts EV mass production on Nov 4 (but ramps up on EV and down on ICE over the next ~2 years until it's fully EV). Apparently the same is true for 2 US factories, so that's 3 EV factories and -3 ICE factories. https://electrek.co/2019/07/22/vw-zwickau-factory-electric-cars/ https://electrek.co/2019/07/22/vw-zwickau-factory-electric-c...
- l1k 7y agoZuffenhausen is now also a mixed ICE/EV factory and EV production has already started there last month. (Porsche is no longer an independent company but merely a VW brand.)
- chodeboy 7y agoAccording to [1] the entire VW group owns 61 plants worldwide. However this also includes motorcycle factories and plants which make various parts which are used by ICE and electric cars (i.e. metal casting, injection molding, gearboxes, etc.). 8 Factories are quite a lot when you think that VW has only 3 electric vehicles in the pipeline (id.3,id.crozz and id.buzz) and also does not own any battery manufacturing plant. It's a very risky move for VW. Margins on ICEs are way higher and VW factory staff is way pricier than tesla's. They can't really burn cash the same way since going belly up would be way more devastating. That's why other big manufacturers like toyota are similarly cautious. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Volkswagen_Group_factories https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Volkswagen_Group_facto...
- jsight 7y agoTesla builds ~400,000 per year out of a single factory. If VW were producing 3.2 million/year by the end of 2022 that would seem like a lot to me. Of course, if/when Tesla ever builds a European plant it may be much smaller than their current footprint. That isn't uncommon for Europe, so if I had to hazard a guess, the VW plants will average less than 400k/plant as well. Even going from where they are to 2 million per year over the next few years would be a great accomplishment, though. And that certainly seems feasible, if not necessarily likely. ICE companies have an even worse track record than Tesla at keeping promises on electric vehicle schedules.
- pgeorgi 7y agoThe Zwickau factory I mentioned a couple of times produces 297k ICE cars a year (1350 a day, 220 days a year), and aims for 330k EV cars in 2022 (1500 a day, 220 days a year). Source: https://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/Elektroautos-Im-VW-Werk-Zwickau-sollen-jaehrlich-330-000-E-Autos-vom-Band-rollen-4223448.html https://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/Elektroautos-Im-VW-W...