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> The most pressing problem for humanity is global climate disruption. I don't believe most would agree here. There are a lot of problems humanity faces, and h

> The most pressing problem for humanity is global climate disruption. I don't believe most would agree here. There are a lot of problems humanity faces, and humanity is a lot of different people. Those still living in extreme poverty today probably don't care about our worries of climate disruption. > Arguably, working on anything that doesn't help there is not just wasted effort, but actively harmful. Why is this? > Direct hydrogen-fueled aircraft are feasible, and more efficient than with kerosine, but the design cycle is too long. This is really interesting but doesn't strike me as true based on my background. Do you have anything I could read regarding? I would be very interested > Without massive progress in the next decade, civilization will probably collapse by 2035. This I really don't agree with or understand. I'm very worried about emissions, but I don't see why civilization would collapse any time soon, if at all. 2035 is very soon.

deanCommie 7y ago
> Those still living in extreme poverty today probably don't care about our worries of climate disruption. Tell that to 100Million people in poverty in Bangladesh that will become climate refugees if the sea level rises in any meaningful way. In the west, sea-side living is a privilege for the richest. And sea level rise is mostly ignorable with the virtue of new seawalls. In the developing world, the most poverty-stricken are the closest to the water, and nobody will be funding solutions for them.
- johnmorrison 7y ago
  You're right about those people, but I'm not talking about them. There are people living in extreme poverty today who won't even be alive anymore by the time sea level rise causes a problem. Who are we to claim that climate change is the most pressing issue facing humanity, when much of humanity faces unrelated life threatening issues?
  - Arn_Thor 7y ago
    There are people who are alive today, and who won't be next year because of extreme weather events tied to climate change. And that's before getting into real live issues to do with water rights, habitation, crop resilience to changing weather patterns, energy access and usage. These issues are likely to spark wars in our lifetime (if they haven't already.. Syria and the Arab Spring was tied to crop failures and high food prices). And these issues disproportionately affect the poor living today. Entirely aside from rising sea levels which will compound the damage
    - johnmorrison 7y ago
      I'm not sure this is true, at least not on net. Do you have any scientific evidence showing a net global increase in extreme weather events in the last several decades?
      - ncmncm 7y ago
        Have you even looked out the window, lately?
        johnmorrison 7y ago
        Not all areas experience extreme weather. Where I live, there's basically no extreme weather ever.
        ncmncm 7y ago
        Lucky you. That experience does not generalize.
      - Arn_Thor 7y ago
        It is true. "New data show that extreme weather events have become more frequent over the past 36 years, with a significant uptick in floods and other hydrological events compared even with five years ago, according to a new publication" https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180321130859.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180321130859.h...
  - bitcoinbutter 7y ago
    You're looking at humanity through the lens of an individual. The reality is that the threats to people in extreme poverty are not going to threaten humanity as a whole. I am defining humanity as the progression and prosperity of the human race. Climate change could ultimately threaten the entire human race. It could even result in extinction in the worst case scenario. I disagree with the comment that because of this, all minds should be focused solely on this issue, and that all other problems should be ignored. But the reality is that a small subset of humanity living in extreme poverty does not pose an existential threat to civilization or the human species.
    - johnmorrison 7y ago
      Only a small percentage of the population lives in extreme poverty today, yes. But even a smaller percentage deals with significant issues due to climate change, today. The changes thus far have been excessively inflated, and may be net-positive so far. You're right about the worst case scenario, GHG emissions could in theory lead to Earth becoming like Venus or somewhere in between the two where the atmosphere is bad enough to cause the end of humanity. But this is extremely unlikely and might not even be possible with the sum of our economically accessible fossil fuel reserves. In reality, it seems there is still a threat of huge increase in poverty due to some WW3 type event, or a superbug global plague, or something like that. I think it's unfair to weigh climate change above poverty at the moment, even for the overall prosperity of the human race. In fact, I think climate change will end up being much worse for the rest of life on Earth than humanity. We have the advantage of being able to plan and react in advance, so we will probably be fine for a long time to come, but most plants and animals might go extinct.
    - ncmncm 7y ago
      Humanity is not facing extinction, even if we indulge in global thermonuclear war. Comfortable civilization will vanish, for at least centuries, taking with it food security, education, and high-tech industry. We will retain iron scrapping. We might keep dentistry, in luckier pockets.
- no_bikeholes 7y ago
  OK, I will. Point me to the megaphone! "DEANCOMMIE CARES MORE ABOUT OVERINFLATED POLITICAL FOOTBALLS THAN YOUR COMFORT OR ADVANCEMENT!" Oops, did I say that?
- rejschaap 7y ago
  Also have a look at Zimbabwe where climate change is already seriously compounding existing problems. The poorest are hit the hardest. https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/13/health/climate-change-zimbabwe-farmers-hiv-intl/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/13/health/climate-change-zimbabw...
ahje 7y ago
> Those still living in extreme poverty today probably don't care about our worries of climate disruption. No doubt about it. At this point it's probably a better idea to start preparing for the changes rather than stopping them, unless we somehow manage to achieve some magical global unity around a single goal. > I don't see why civilization would collapse any time soon Civilizational collapse is a slow process. I doubt the people of the later stages of the Roman empire felt their society collapsed. It's more likely they simply experienced slowly decaying infrastructure as maintenance was neglected, social unrest, and the absence of the advantages we get from a large centralized authorities, all in a span of many decades. I'm not saying that it's happening, or not happening -- It's just that you wouldn't know until it's happened.
- johnmorrison 7y ago
  > At this point it's probably a better idea to start preparing for the changes rather than stopping them Yeah, this is probably best practice for people in regions that are projected to be left mostly uninhabitable / with severe barriers to life. This won't really be too much of a problem even if climate change is left unchecked, as Bjørn Lomborg says[1], it will only cost us 2-4% of GDP by end of century. > Civilizational collapse is a slow process. I doubt the people of the later stages of the Roman empire felt their society collapsed. I'd like to point out an important note: the guy said civilization would collapse, not a civilization. I'm not sure if you mean the same thing he does, but civilization itself has never, in history, collapsed, even during the plague and fall of the roman empire. We've been pretty much A-okay on a global level since 12,000 years ago. You're definitely right about individual states, and it is almost certainly true that several countries may end up collapsing due to climate disruption, but not the big ones and probably no time soon. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QyXduteiWE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QyXduteiWE
  - ahje 7y ago
    > Yeah, this is probably best practice for people in regions that are projected to be left mostly uninhabitable I'd go as far as arguing that _everyone_ should prepare for what's coming. All of us will be affected, be it directly or indirectly, through things like the (most likely) inevitable refugee crisis, or increased food prices and lower standards of living. > but civilization itself has never, in history, collapsed I meant individual civilizations and not civilization itself, although I read the original comment as something happening to "our" civilization and not all of them. Total collapse of civilization itself would require something cataclysmic happening on a global scale, and that the effects of said event are so severe that all of humanity fail to restore itself within the time span of several generations. Some of the more alarmist reports about global warming are indeed pointing at that scenario, although it's more likely that progress will be slower, and that humanity as a whole will be able to adapt in the long run. Regardless, I am convinced that even if we were talking about the actual end of civilization itself, it would not necessarily be evident to us until it was too late. The fact that there are alarm bells ringing about the climate now is an indicator of climate changes being either: a) survivable for humanity as a whole by doing what we can to prevent it and prepare for what happens if we fail b) the end of the world and it's too late to do anything This turned darker than I planned. :D

deanCommie 7y ago

> Those still living in extreme poverty today probably don't care about our worries of climate disruption. Tell that to 100Million people in poverty in Bangladesh that will become climate refugees if the sea level rises in any meaningful way. In the west, sea-side living is a privilege for the richest. And sea level rise is mostly ignorable with the virtue of new seawalls. In the developing world, the most poverty-stricken are the closest to the water, and nobody will be funding solutions for them.

johnmorrison 7y ago
You're right about those people, but I'm not talking about them. There are people living in extreme poverty today who won't even be alive anymore by the time sea level rise causes a problem. Who are we to claim that climate change is the most pressing issue facing humanity, when much of humanity faces unrelated life threatening issues?
- Arn_Thor 7y ago
  There are people who are alive today, and who won't be next year because of extreme weather events tied to climate change. And that's before getting into real live issues to do with water rights, habitation, crop resilience to changing weather patterns, energy access and usage. These issues are likely to spark wars in our lifetime (if they haven't already.. Syria and the Arab Spring was tied to crop failures and high food prices). And these issues disproportionately affect the poor living today. Entirely aside from rising sea levels which will compound the damage
  - johnmorrison 7y ago
    I'm not sure this is true, at least not on net. Do you have any scientific evidence showing a net global increase in extreme weather events in the last several decades?
    - ncmncm 7y ago
      Have you even looked out the window, lately?
      - johnmorrison 7y ago
        Not all areas experience extreme weather. Where I live, there's basically no extreme weather ever.
        ncmncm 7y ago
        Lucky you. That experience does not generalize.
    - Arn_Thor 7y ago
      It is true. "New data show that extreme weather events have become more frequent over the past 36 years, with a significant uptick in floods and other hydrological events compared even with five years ago, according to a new publication" https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180321130859.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180321130859.h...
- bitcoinbutter 7y ago
  You're looking at humanity through the lens of an individual. The reality is that the threats to people in extreme poverty are not going to threaten humanity as a whole. I am defining humanity as the progression and prosperity of the human race. Climate change could ultimately threaten the entire human race. It could even result in extinction in the worst case scenario. I disagree with the comment that because of this, all minds should be focused solely on this issue, and that all other problems should be ignored. But the reality is that a small subset of humanity living in extreme poverty does not pose an existential threat to civilization or the human species.
  - johnmorrison 7y ago
    Only a small percentage of the population lives in extreme poverty today, yes. But even a smaller percentage deals with significant issues due to climate change, today. The changes thus far have been excessively inflated, and may be net-positive so far. You're right about the worst case scenario, GHG emissions could in theory lead to Earth becoming like Venus or somewhere in between the two where the atmosphere is bad enough to cause the end of humanity. But this is extremely unlikely and might not even be possible with the sum of our economically accessible fossil fuel reserves. In reality, it seems there is still a threat of huge increase in poverty due to some WW3 type event, or a superbug global plague, or something like that. I think it's unfair to weigh climate change above poverty at the moment, even for the overall prosperity of the human race. In fact, I think climate change will end up being much worse for the rest of life on Earth than humanity. We have the advantage of being able to plan and react in advance, so we will probably be fine for a long time to come, but most plants and animals might go extinct.
  - ncmncm 7y ago
    Humanity is not facing extinction, even if we indulge in global thermonuclear war. Comfortable civilization will vanish, for at least centuries, taking with it food security, education, and high-tech industry. We will retain iron scrapping. We might keep dentistry, in luckier pockets.
no_bikeholes 7y ago
OK, I will. Point me to the megaphone! "DEANCOMMIE CARES MORE ABOUT OVERINFLATED POLITICAL FOOTBALLS THAN YOUR COMFORT OR ADVANCEMENT!" Oops, did I say that?
rejschaap 7y ago
Also have a look at Zimbabwe where climate change is already seriously compounding existing problems. The poorest are hit the hardest. https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/13/health/climate-change-zimbabwe-farmers-hiv-intl/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/13/health/climate-change-zimbabw...

ahje 7y ago

> Those still living in extreme poverty today probably don't care about our worries of climate disruption. No doubt about it. At this point it's probably a better idea to start preparing for the changes rather than stopping them, unless we somehow manage to achieve some magical global unity around a single goal. > I don't see why civilization would collapse any time soon Civilizational collapse is a slow process. I doubt the people of the later stages of the Roman empire felt their society collapsed. It's more likely they simply experienced slowly decaying infrastructure as maintenance was neglected, social unrest, and the absence of the advantages we get from a large centralized authorities, all in a span of many decades. I'm not saying that it's happening, or not happening -- It's just that you wouldn't know until it's happened.

johnmorrison 7y ago
> At this point it's probably a better idea to start preparing for the changes rather than stopping them Yeah, this is probably best practice for people in regions that are projected to be left mostly uninhabitable / with severe barriers to life. This won't really be too much of a problem even if climate change is left unchecked, as Bjørn Lomborg says[1], it will only cost us 2-4% of GDP by end of century. > Civilizational collapse is a slow process. I doubt the people of the later stages of the Roman empire felt their society collapsed. I'd like to point out an important note: the guy said civilization would collapse, not a civilization. I'm not sure if you mean the same thing he does, but civilization itself has never, in history, collapsed, even during the plague and fall of the roman empire. We've been pretty much A-okay on a global level since 12,000 years ago. You're definitely right about individual states, and it is almost certainly true that several countries may end up collapsing due to climate disruption, but not the big ones and probably no time soon. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QyXduteiWE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QyXduteiWE
- ahje 7y ago
  > Yeah, this is probably best practice for people in regions that are projected to be left mostly uninhabitable I'd go as far as arguing that _everyone_ should prepare for what's coming. All of us will be affected, be it directly or indirectly, through things like the (most likely) inevitable refugee crisis, or increased food prices and lower standards of living. > but civilization itself has never, in history, collapsed I meant individual civilizations and not civilization itself, although I read the original comment as something happening to "our" civilization and not all of them. Total collapse of civilization itself would require something cataclysmic happening on a global scale, and that the effects of said event are so severe that all of humanity fail to restore itself within the time span of several generations. Some of the more alarmist reports about global warming are indeed pointing at that scenario, although it's more likely that progress will be slower, and that humanity as a whole will be able to adapt in the long run. Regardless, I am convinced that even if we were talking about the actual end of civilization itself, it would not necessarily be evident to us until it was too late. The fact that there are alarm bells ringing about the climate now is an indicator of climate changes being either: a) survivable for humanity as a whole by doing what we can to prevent it and prepare for what happens if we fail b) the end of the world and it's too late to do anything This turned darker than I planned. :D