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Augmented reality is a great example. Everyone knows that it will become a "Big Thing" in the future. Like why would smartphones be the final form factor of per

Augmented reality is a great example. Everyone knows that it will become a "Big Thing" in the future. Like why would smartphones be the final form factor of personal computing? Of course there will be something that will dethrone it. But despite every big company throwing a couple billions at the problem for the last few years (Facebook's $2 billion acquisition of oculus, Google's $500 million investment into Magic Leap, Apple's acquisition of Metaio/ARkit, Microsoft Hololens), all we have are literal toys! So now you can't talk about AR as a serious subject anymore. People all dismiss it, saying we are still too early. I imagine it's like that for every "toy to big thing" transition.

nine_k 7y ago
Remember the PC revolution. Altair was a toy. Atari 2600 was a toy. TRS-80, Sinclair Spectrum, Apple II — all toys. Amiga was almost not a toy, and Aople Macintosh and IBM PC were mostly not toys anymore. From there on, businesses started to use massive amounts of PCs, thanks to killer apps like word processors and spreadsheets. Prices fell, home users took note, and a real explosion began. It took mere 20 years, say, from 1980 to 2000.
- ianai 7y ago
  In that 20 years the hardware and software exponentially grew in capacity and decreased greatly in cost. Computers turned into something you’d want in your pocket once they could be unobtrusive enough to be tolerable with you all day. On that note, who knows what would AR require in order to take off. It probably needs to be something you can get 80% of the killer features without wearing glasses. It also needs to support whatever frames glass wearers want to wear. It might require actual visual implants as I don’t think there’s a way to turn a contact lens into a display.
  - nine_k 7y ago
    I've read about contact lenses that used super—tiny LEDs to produce a focused overlay image in the eye. It of course had a large external induction coil to power it, and very low resolution.
simonh 7y ago
I think there’s a very good chance the smartphone will be the dominant form factor essentially forever. Anything smaller won’t be good for presenting visual information, and when you don’t need it, it isn’t stuck to your face. Alternatively taking a long view, how many times do you think the dominant form factor of personal computers (in the general sense, including smart phones) will change? Another 3 times, another 5? Every 20 years forever? The only exception I can think of is a direct neural link, but that’s generations away and even then I’m not entirely convinced. Maybe in the very long term.
- QuinnWilton 7y ago
  > You could use glasses, but not everyone wants to wear them. What about contact lenses?
  - mozey 7y ago
    Contact lenses are a pita. I suspect it's going to be a smartphone-like form factor combined with a voice UI similar to the movie Her from 2013. Eventually the visuals on the phone screen will be replaced with a neural link. It would make sense if the implant is just a dumb antenna, combined with a removable "earbud" that connects it to the computing device.
    - AstralStorm 7y ago
      We have not conceived useful applications that actually require AR yet. It has to be something requiring immediate feedback - maybe driving a car or piloting a similar vehicle would be such application. Maybe stock market. Or something entirely unforseen, like data analysis or warehousing - using human intelligence better? Voice is much too slow, as is listening - might as well use the current devices at those speeds. Computers started with bookkeeping and mass production control. It took quite some time for them to penetrate office market or to (partially) replace the previously used communication tools.
  - vermilingua 7y ago
    Yes because contacts are an absolute pleasure in comparison to glasses.
rimliu 7y ago
I, for one, do not know that AR will become a "Big Thing". It is fine for some applications, but not enough to be Big.

nine_k 7y ago

Remember the PC revolution. Altair was a toy. Atari 2600 was a toy. TRS-80, Sinclair Spectrum, Apple II — all toys. Amiga was almost not a toy, and Aople Macintosh and IBM PC were mostly not toys anymore. From there on, businesses started to use massive amounts of PCs, thanks to killer apps like word processors and spreadsheets. Prices fell, home users took note, and a real explosion began. It took mere 20 years, say, from 1980 to 2000.

ianai 7y ago
In that 20 years the hardware and software exponentially grew in capacity and decreased greatly in cost. Computers turned into something you’d want in your pocket once they could be unobtrusive enough to be tolerable with you all day. On that note, who knows what would AR require in order to take off. It probably needs to be something you can get 80% of the killer features without wearing glasses. It also needs to support whatever frames glass wearers want to wear. It might require actual visual implants as I don’t think there’s a way to turn a contact lens into a display.
- nine_k 7y ago
  I've read about contact lenses that used super—tiny LEDs to produce a focused overlay image in the eye. It of course had a large external induction coil to power it, and very low resolution.

simonh 7y ago

I think there’s a very good chance the smartphone will be the dominant form factor essentially forever. Anything smaller won’t be good for presenting visual information, and when you don’t need it, it isn’t stuck to your face. Alternatively taking a long view, how many times do you think the dominant form factor of personal computers (in the general sense, including smart phones) will change? Another 3 times, another 5? Every 20 years forever? The only exception I can think of is a direct neural link, but that’s generations away and even then I’m not entirely convinced. Maybe in the very long term.

QuinnWilton 7y ago
> You could use glasses, but not everyone wants to wear them. What about contact lenses?
- mozey 7y ago
  Contact lenses are a pita. I suspect it's going to be a smartphone-like form factor combined with a voice UI similar to the movie Her from 2013. Eventually the visuals on the phone screen will be replaced with a neural link. It would make sense if the implant is just a dumb antenna, combined with a removable "earbud" that connects it to the computing device.
  - AstralStorm 7y ago
    We have not conceived useful applications that actually require AR yet. It has to be something requiring immediate feedback - maybe driving a car or piloting a similar vehicle would be such application. Maybe stock market. Or something entirely unforseen, like data analysis or warehousing - using human intelligence better? Voice is much too slow, as is listening - might as well use the current devices at those speeds. Computers started with bookkeeping and mass production control. It took quite some time for them to penetrate office market or to (partially) replace the previously used communication tools.
- vermilingua 7y ago
  Yes because contacts are an absolute pleasure in comparison to glasses.

rimliu 7y ago

I, for one, do not know that AR will become a "Big Thing". It is fine for some applications, but not enough to be Big.