4 ms·

Which is still to my point: Softbanks Vision Fund model is not proven yet. It is just as probable it is more a vehicle to find a place for Middle Eastern money

• threeseed 7y ago
  Back of a napkin: * Growth in remote workers = 9% per year. * Percentage of remote workers who want an office = 20%. * WeWork market share = 90%. = 1.62% of all workers each year will potentially shift to WeWork.
  • gbear605 7y ago
    You think 9% of all workers will switch to being remote every year starting now? By that logic, there won’t be any non-remote workers left in 15 years. The current number is only about 3% [1], so a more reasonable growth number (although still large) is 0.25%, which means (by the rest of your numbers), only 0.045% of all workers (in the US) each year will switch to WeWork. [1]: https://smallbiztrends.com/2018/04/2018-remote-work-statistics.html https://smallbiztrends.com/2018/04/2018-remote-work-statisti...
  • flukus 7y ago
    > * WeWork market share = 90%. I think that's where the error lies. WeWork has no lock-in, there's no good reason to choose them over a competitor and it doesn't take much capital to start a local competitor (and there are many already). I was looking at offices like this recently and the most important factor was being close to home which had local competitors. When I look at WeWork locations, they're mostly in the CBD, so they're not even attracting anyone with a local office. It's not even a new business model, just SV hype.
  • ohashi 7y ago
    90% market share of office space? That's hilarious