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Well, I'm with you on sea level rise. I live in The Netherlands. Big part of our country is below sea level, millions of people actually. Recently Deltares, the

by raarts 7y ago

Well, I'm with you on sea level rise. I live in The Netherlands. Big part of our country is below sea level, millions of people actually. Recently Deltares, the body that advises the government on the height of our dikes released a 187-page report on sea level rise. Using the newest methods, they found that sea level has been rising at a constant rate (1.8mm/yr) for > 125 years now, and the sea level rise is NOT accelerating. I trust these people, since they are responsible for millions of lives. Of course IPCC climate models are projecting acceleration, but those are just models. And past sea level rise acceleration projections have obviously been wrong so far. I clearly remember over the course of my life reading about climate catastrophes, scientists being in consensus about it, it never came true, and I don't believe it now.

ceejayoz 7y ago
> I trust [Deltares], since they are responsible for millions of lives. OK, so do so. https://www.deltares.nl/en/blog/the-battle-of-engineers-against-climate-change/ https://www.deltares.nl/en/blog/the-battle-of-engineers-agai... > Climate change is happening right now and at a frightening speed, especially in the Arctic. To underpin the need for action, I share three wake-up calls... > We can’t afford to ignore the warning signs. The longer we wait, the harder it will be to get climate change under control. After long negotiations, world leaders have agreed on action at the Paris climate summit. Now it’s up to the engineers to develop ambitious plans and innovative solutions.
- raarts 7y ago
  You are quoting a blog entry from 2016. The report I was referring to was from march 2019. They debunked their own blogpost.
  - ceejayoz 7y ago
    In another comment, someone pointed out issues with your understanding of that report, which you replied to with basically "well I don't believe that part". As such, I'm not inclined to credit your claim they "debunked" this. You're welcome to cite an updated statement or blog post saying so, though.
    - ltbarcly3 7y ago
      This is just a bizarre exchange, (which I'm obviously changing to make people look silly, but I'll assume it reflects things accurately): raarts: the official report by people with the expertise to measure this says X. itcrowd: yea but here's someone's personal opinion from some blog hosted by that organization raarts: sure, but that's an old blog post, and also it's just a blog post? ceejayoz: I found some other post you made so I don't have to care what the official report says. I can assume you are lying because it is convenient. In the meantime, I won't hold any posts I agree with to any such standard.
      - ceejayoz 7y ago
        Except the official report doesn't say what's being claimed here. If they've decided climate change is debunked, that'd be worthy of at least a new blog post. It's pointed out at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21313203 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21313203 that /u/raarts misread that section.
        raarts 7y ago
        For others who arrived here, it was not 'pointed out' that I read it wrong, it was suggested that I read it wrong. The discussion continued from there, and I think I explained my point quite clearly, and I definitely did not read it wrong. I still maintain sea level rise is not accelerating and my logic behind that was not proven wrong. Instead my discussion partner started pointing to other sources.
itcrowd 7y ago
You need to read the report more closely. First, it describes only the Dutch sea level rise, not the global sea level. Second, the most important reason that the sea level rise is that "the Netherlands is located in one of the least affected areas [of sea level rise] in the world. 9cm/century [of sea level rise] has not influenced the Netherlands, but has been observed around the equator" [1, from the summary] [1] The report is here (in Dutch) https://www.deltares.nl/app/uploads/2019/03/faq-zeespiegelmonitor-2018-.pdf https://www.deltares.nl/app/uploads/2019/03/faq-zeespiegelmo...
- raarts 7y ago
  Yes, I've had that comment more often. My standard answer is that if sea level rise is accelerating somewhere on the planet, it should be accelerating everywhere. The sea level rise itself may differ per location, but logic dictates that an acceleration should be visible everywhere. Note that sea level rise differs across the globe for many reasons, land sinking being one of them. For example, sea levels are dropping in Sweden, because the land is rising.
  - itcrowd 7y ago
    > if sea level rise is accelerating somewhere on the planet, it should be accelerating everywhere. If you mean "accelerating upwards" then it is completely wrong. Sea level gets lower near large icebergs (e.g. the arctic). As the ice from the pole melts, the gravitational pull of the ice mass decreases and water is displaced to areas further from the pole. As for your Sweden comment, I don't see how it is relevant. Please explain
    - raarts 7y ago
      I said 'sea level rise', not 'sea level'. Sweden was just an example of a place where sea level is dropping.
      - itcrowd 7y ago
        Maybe I'm confused with what you're saying, please correct me where I misinterpret what you mean. On a global scale, the sea-level is rising [1] and the sea-level increase is itself increasing (i.e. accelerating). This can also be seen in [1]. That does NOT mean that the change is uniform over the globe. You can check your locale here [2] (and confirm that Sweden's sea level is getting lower, the Netherlands slightly rising). Globally, sea level rise IS accelerating [3]. Coming back to your claim that "if sea level rise is accelerating somewhere on the planet, it should be accelerating everywhere". Please explain why there could not be some (the Netherlands? hypothetical?) place where the the sea level rise does not increase even if more water is added to the system? This IS possible but the water must go somewhere else, i.e. the acceleration will be stronger in other regions (for example, Manilla). [1] https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/ https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/ [2] https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.html https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.html [3] https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2018/new-study-finds-sea-level-rise-accelerating https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2018/new-study-finds-se...

by raarts 7y ago

ceejayoz 7y ago

> I trust [Deltares], since they are responsible for millions of lives. OK, so do so. https://www.deltares.nl/en/blog/the-battle-of-engineers-against-climate-change/ https://www.deltares.nl/en/blog/the-battle-of-engineers-agai... > Climate change is happening right now and at a frightening speed, especially in the Arctic. To underpin the need for action, I share three wake-up calls... > We can’t afford to ignore the warning signs. The longer we wait, the harder it will be to get climate change under control. After long negotiations, world leaders have agreed on action at the Paris climate summit. Now it’s up to the engineers to develop ambitious plans and innovative solutions.

raarts 7y ago
You are quoting a blog entry from 2016. The report I was referring to was from march 2019. They debunked their own blogpost.
- ceejayoz 7y ago
  In another comment, someone pointed out issues with your understanding of that report, which you replied to with basically "well I don't believe that part". As such, I'm not inclined to credit your claim they "debunked" this. You're welcome to cite an updated statement or blog post saying so, though.
  - ltbarcly3 7y ago
    This is just a bizarre exchange, (which I'm obviously changing to make people look silly, but I'll assume it reflects things accurately): raarts: the official report by people with the expertise to measure this says X. itcrowd: yea but here's someone's personal opinion from some blog hosted by that organization raarts: sure, but that's an old blog post, and also it's just a blog post? ceejayoz: I found some other post you made so I don't have to care what the official report says. I can assume you are lying because it is convenient. In the meantime, I won't hold any posts I agree with to any such standard.
    - ceejayoz 7y ago
      Except the official report doesn't say what's being claimed here. If they've decided climate change is debunked, that'd be worthy of at least a new blog post. It's pointed out at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21313203 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21313203 that /u/raarts misread that section.
      - raarts 7y ago
        For others who arrived here, it was not 'pointed out' that I read it wrong, it was suggested that I read it wrong. The discussion continued from there, and I think I explained my point quite clearly, and I definitely did not read it wrong. I still maintain sea level rise is not accelerating and my logic behind that was not proven wrong. Instead my discussion partner started pointing to other sources.

itcrowd 7y ago

You need to read the report more closely. First, it describes only the Dutch sea level rise, not the global sea level. Second, the most important reason that the sea level rise is that "the Netherlands is located in one of the least affected areas [of sea level rise] in the world. 9cm/century [of sea level rise] has not influenced the Netherlands, but has been observed around the equator" [1, from the summary] [1] The report is here (in Dutch) https://www.deltares.nl/app/uploads/2019/03/faq-zeespiegelmonitor-2018-.pdf https://www.deltares.nl/app/uploads/2019/03/faq-zeespiegelmo...

raarts 7y ago
Yes, I've had that comment more often. My standard answer is that if sea level rise is accelerating somewhere on the planet, it should be accelerating everywhere. The sea level rise itself may differ per location, but logic dictates that an acceleration should be visible everywhere. Note that sea level rise differs across the globe for many reasons, land sinking being one of them. For example, sea levels are dropping in Sweden, because the land is rising.
- itcrowd 7y ago
  > if sea level rise is accelerating somewhere on the planet, it should be accelerating everywhere. If you mean "accelerating upwards" then it is completely wrong. Sea level gets lower near large icebergs (e.g. the arctic). As the ice from the pole melts, the gravitational pull of the ice mass decreases and water is displaced to areas further from the pole. As for your Sweden comment, I don't see how it is relevant. Please explain
  - raarts 7y ago
    I said 'sea level rise', not 'sea level'. Sweden was just an example of a place where sea level is dropping.
    - itcrowd 7y ago
      Maybe I'm confused with what you're saying, please correct me where I misinterpret what you mean. On a global scale, the sea-level is rising [1] and the sea-level increase is itself increasing (i.e. accelerating). This can also be seen in [1]. That does NOT mean that the change is uniform over the globe. You can check your locale here [2] (and confirm that Sweden's sea level is getting lower, the Netherlands slightly rising). Globally, sea level rise IS accelerating [3]. Coming back to your claim that "if sea level rise is accelerating somewhere on the planet, it should be accelerating everywhere". Please explain why there could not be some (the Netherlands? hypothetical?) place where the the sea level rise does not increase even if more water is added to the system? This IS possible but the water must go somewhere else, i.e. the acceleration will be stronger in other regions (for example, Manilla). [1] https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/ https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/ [2] https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.html https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.html [3] https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2018/new-study-finds-sea-level-rise-accelerating https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2018/new-study-finds-se...