4 ms·
Notice that from now into the future it is no longer a line, but a range that widens the further into the future it goes. The base of which continues in a perfe
by NeedMoreTea 7y ago
Notice that from now into the future it is no longer a line, but a range that widens the further into the future it goes. The base of which continues in a perfectly linear fashion. It's attempting to encompass simple progression and the likely impact of tipping points and accelerating melt.
So no I don't notice anything suspicious by including uncertainty on the plot. If you look at the range of IPCC predictions, current measured sea level rise is tracking the linear portion of their worst case prediction. (RCP8.5) Draw whatever conclusion you will.
- ltbarcly3 7y agoThis is again a misleading response. If these are uncertainty ranges, it should be statistically absurd for reality to always end up at the extreme low end of the predicted range. How many times does that have to happen before you would have to say the prediction isn't a good one?
- NeedMoreTea 7y agoIPCC reports are inherently conservative - they reflect the known and agreed. It's not surprising that reality tends worse as additional effects, tipping points and surprises are reflected in reality but not IPCC reports. There has been criticism that they are too conservative.
- ltbarcly3 7y agoHave they ever, ever made a prediction that didn't over estimate the subsequent measured values of temperature or sea level rise?