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Excellent find. Key quote: "The most conservative scientific estimate that the Earth’s temperature will rise 1 to 7 degrees in the next 30 years, said Brown."

by Udik 7y ago

Excellent find. Key quote: "The most conservative scientific estimate that the Earth’s temperature will rise 1 to 7 degrees in the next 30 years, said Brown." Dated June 30, 1989 Global temperature anomaly 2018: +0.83 Celsius https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4626 https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4626

rebuilder 7y ago
The low estimate seems to have been on the money.
- jtbayly 7y ago
  Didn't even break onto the chart for the lowest number in the lowest estimates. I wouldn't call that "on the money."
  - zipwitch 7y ago
    Was Brown predicting a rise in Celsius or Fahrenheit? The article doesn't say. (And we are up by ~1.5 degrees Fahrenheit.)
  - sp332 7y ago
    1 Fahrenheit degree is .555... centigrade degrees.
- GrumpyNl 7y ago
  High estimation is still over 700% of.
billiam 7y ago
We are way worse at understanding how the effects of global temperature rise will manifest than we are at estimating those changes. That is coming to pass now - pollinators disappearing that could collapse ecosystems are just one example. We should not be arguing about how fast we are falling once we step off the cliff.
dashundchen 7y ago
1) Units are not given in the original AP article - and your own source shows that temperatures rose 1.5F over the 1950 - 1980 average. 2) Also from your own source of NASA, the end of the last ice age saw a global temperature increase of "4 to 7 degrees C over 5000 years" Does that not make you wonder if 0.83C in 30(!) years is an extremely accelerated rate?
- Udik 7y ago
  I have literally just quoted the original article and the current data. I didn't state any opinion but apparently this is enough for people to disagree. I think it is interesting in itself to read predictions made thirty years ago for the next thirty years and compare them with actual data. What I get from it is that the analysis was fundamentally correct- temperatures have kept increasing; but I also see a tendency to overconfidence and exaggeration: the source says that the most conservative estimates put the warming by 2018 between 1 and 7 degrees- even if it's Fahrenheit it literally means that we're at the lower end of the "most conservative estimates".

by Udik 7y ago

rebuilder 7y ago

The low estimate seems to have been on the money.

jtbayly 7y ago
Didn't even break onto the chart for the lowest number in the lowest estimates. I wouldn't call that "on the money."
- zipwitch 7y ago
  Was Brown predicting a rise in Celsius or Fahrenheit? The article doesn't say. (And we are up by ~1.5 degrees Fahrenheit.)
- sp332 7y ago
  1 Fahrenheit degree is .555... centigrade degrees.
GrumpyNl 7y ago
High estimation is still over 700% of.

billiam 7y ago

We are way worse at understanding how the effects of global temperature rise will manifest than we are at estimating those changes. That is coming to pass now - pollinators disappearing that could collapse ecosystems are just one example. We should not be arguing about how fast we are falling once we step off the cliff.

dashundchen 7y ago

1) Units are not given in the original AP article - and your own source shows that temperatures rose 1.5F over the 1950 - 1980 average. 2) Also from your own source of NASA, the end of the last ice age saw a global temperature increase of "4 to 7 degrees C over 5000 years" Does that not make you wonder if 0.83C in 30(!) years is an extremely accelerated rate?

Udik 7y ago
I have literally just quoted the original article and the current data. I didn't state any opinion but apparently this is enough for people to disagree. I think it is interesting in itself to read predictions made thirty years ago for the next thirty years and compare them with actual data. What I get from it is that the analysis was fundamentally correct- temperatures have kept increasing; but I also see a tendency to overconfidence and exaggeration: the source says that the most conservative estimates put the warming by 2018 between 1 and 7 degrees- even if it's Fahrenheit it literally means that we're at the lower end of the "most conservative estimates".