3 ms·
Genuine question: Is there a name for saying "past evidence hasn't shown this to be true, thus it's likely to remain untrue"? I was debating a different techno
by personlurking 7y ago
Genuine question: Is there a name for saying "past evidence hasn't shown this to be true, thus it's likely to remain untrue"?
I was debating a different technology with a friend and he made such a comment, but my response was that the frequency, scope and importance of past technological advancements won't hold a candle to those of the future.
- jessermeyer 7y agoIt's just a specific use of either a Bayesian Prior or Heuristic.
- norklkiur 7y agoThe robustness of an item is proportional to its life: Something which was true/false for 10 years is more likely to remain so for the next 10 than another thing which was true/false for 1 year. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect