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the hubris of man is that we have enough data to understand the earth at any given moment. https://www.apnews.com/bd45c372caf118ec99964ea547880cd0 https://www.
by alwaysanagenda 7y ago
the hubris of man is that we have enough data to understand the earth at any given moment.
https://www.apnews.com/bd45c372caf118ec99964ea547880cd0 https://www.apnews.com/bd45c372caf118ec99964ea547880cd0
- Udik 7y agoExcellent find. Key quote: "The most conservative scientific estimate that the Earth’s temperature will rise 1 to 7 degrees in the next 30 years, said Brown." Dated June 30, 1989 Global temperature anomaly 2018: +0.83 Celsius https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4626 https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4626
- rebuilder 7y agoThe low estimate seems to have been on the money.
- billiam 7y agoWe are way worse at understanding how the effects of global temperature rise will manifest than we are at estimating those changes. That is coming to pass now - pollinators disappearing that could collapse ecosystems are just one example. We should not be arguing about how fast we are falling once we step off the cliff.
- dashundchen 7y ago1) Units are not given in the original AP article - and your own source shows that temperatures rose 1.5F over the 1950 - 1980 average. 2) Also from your own source of NASA, the end of the last ice age saw a global temperature increase of "4 to 7 degrees C over 5000 years" Does that not make you wonder if 0.83C in 30(!) years is an extremely accelerated rate?
- Udik 7y agoI have literally just quoted the original article and the current data. I didn't state any opinion but apparently this is enough for people to disagree. I think it is interesting in itself to read predictions made thirty years ago for the next thirty years and compare them with actual data. What I get from it is that the analysis was fundamentally correct- temperatures have kept increasing; but I also see a tendency to overconfidence and exaggeration: the source says that the most conservative estimates put the warming by 2018 between 1 and 7 degrees- even if it's Fahrenheit it literally means that we're at the lower end of the "most conservative estimates".
- icebraining 7y agoExactly! Which is why we need to be extremely prudent and not assume we can pollute without any major impacts. If the flashlight is poor, we should crawl, not run inside the cave.
- throwaway744678 7y agoWe also shouldn't run out screaming when hearing the faintest noise, but try to see what it actually is. And build a better flashlight too.