“if X rolls of dice resulted in just a single success - then the remaining less than X rolls simply won't suddenly roll a hundred more successes” Mmhh.. not so

“if X rolls of dice resulted in just a single success - then the remaining less than X rolls simply won't suddenly roll a hundred more successes” Mmhh.. not so sure you can conclude this. You assume all rolls of the dice are identical (same likeliness of all outcomes), but this ignores the fact that the universe is ever-changing from a particular state towards its inevitable fate. Consider for instance the "pulse" of galaxies as they collide and 'ignite' their central quasars anew — this coincides with extremely harsh local conditions for said galaxy merger, which becomes likely very unhospitable to life. Conversely, when the jets calm down (mature) and winds recede, star formation kicks back up and a new galactic cycle begins until the next merger (if ever). This mechanism alone could paint a very asymmetric past and future set of conditions (relatively to our rather 'calm' present, but it's actually a cycle). Some of these conditions would definitely affect life (for instance, during its active phase, we suspect that a galaxy's quasar might be strong enough to blow away planets atmospheres). There's just too many unknowns at this point. Drake's famous equation was actually meant to expose this fact (he actually knew it was flawed/impossible to solve, but felt it was a meaningful thought experiment, iirc).