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The total area of the state isn't too relevant, since California isn't exactly proposing to build HSR to Eureka or Redding. It's true that California's project

The total area of the state isn't too relevant, since California isn't exactly proposing to build HSR to Eureka or Redding. It's true that California's project is larger-scale, but by 2x: Taiwan has a single 200-mile HSR line, and California is trying to build a single 400-mile line.

Retric 7y ago
Taiwan has 1/5th the GDP of California. So, it’s more like California had even lower goals than Taiwan.
- zeroonetwothree 7y ago
  Maybe part of the reason for the higher GDP is the lack of wasteful infrastructure spending with low returns?
WiseWeasel 7y ago
How many potential riders live along each respective corridor? How many people want to travel between San Jose and Bakersfield vs Taipei and Kaohsiung? I’d guesstimate an order of magnitude lower as proposed; the California plan doesn’t make much sense to me without extending the line 100 miles further from Bakersfield to LA.
- _delirium 7y ago
  Well, the original proposal that voters passed was SF–LA, which has very large populations at both ends, and makes a bit more sense (this is also what I was counting as 400 miles). The (maybe temporary, maybe not) scale-back seems to be due to rapidly ballooning estimates of construction cost. I agree that a Merced–Bakersfield line is less compelling, to put it mildly. Which points to what I think is the main issue, both here and with most other US transit projects: US rail construction costs are very high, even compared to other high-wage countries. If we could get subway and rail projects done at the per-mile costs that Japan, Denmark, France, or Germany manage, I think we'd both have more things already successfully built, and more public appetite to fund more. There's some digging on that question on this blog: https://pedestrianobservations.com/construction-costs/ https://pedestrianobservations.com/construction-costs/
jcranmer 7y ago
Also keep in mind the topography. There is about 50-ish miles of mountains standing between Los Angeles and the Central Valley (15 fewer if you deter via Palmsdale), and you have a similar conundrum going from the Central Valley to the Bay Area. By contrast in Taiwan, you can travel mostly via coastal flats.

Retric 7y ago

Taiwan has 1/5th the GDP of California. So, it’s more like California had even lower goals than Taiwan.

zeroonetwothree 7y ago
Maybe part of the reason for the higher GDP is the lack of wasteful infrastructure spending with low returns?

WiseWeasel 7y ago

How many potential riders live along each respective corridor? How many people want to travel between San Jose and Bakersfield vs Taipei and Kaohsiung? I’d guesstimate an order of magnitude lower as proposed; the California plan doesn’t make much sense to me without extending the line 100 miles further from Bakersfield to LA.

_delirium 7y ago
Well, the original proposal that voters passed was SF–LA, which has very large populations at both ends, and makes a bit more sense (this is also what I was counting as 400 miles). The (maybe temporary, maybe not) scale-back seems to be due to rapidly ballooning estimates of construction cost. I agree that a Merced–Bakersfield line is less compelling, to put it mildly. Which points to what I think is the main issue, both here and with most other US transit projects: US rail construction costs are very high, even compared to other high-wage countries. If we could get subway and rail projects done at the per-mile costs that Japan, Denmark, France, or Germany manage, I think we'd both have more things already successfully built, and more public appetite to fund more. There's some digging on that question on this blog: https://pedestrianobservations.com/construction-costs/ https://pedestrianobservations.com/construction-costs/

jcranmer 7y ago

Also keep in mind the topography. There is about 50-ish miles of mountains standing between Los Angeles and the Central Valley (15 fewer if you deter via Palmsdale), and you have a similar conundrum going from the Central Valley to the Bay Area. By contrast in Taiwan, you can travel mostly via coastal flats.