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What decision making process if not a statistical one would be better when it faces the same data limitations? Or what if we know the best decision making proce

by mlthoughts2018 7y ago

What decision making process if not a statistical one would be better when it faces the same data limitations? Or what if we know the best decision making process for a given context, but it’s too expensive to apply? For example, we may know that evaluating loan applicants is best done with in-person interviews, but it’s simply too costly and delays getting loans to people too long, so we agree to use an automated decision process knowing the cost of it making some mistakes will be part of what is paid for the benefit of being able to process many applications quickly.

Spooky23 7y ago
If a predictive process discards risk for humans who lack access to healthcare, it’s creating an obvious ethical problem. There’s a big difference between writing a loan and missing a stroke.
- mlthoughts2018 7y ago
  That seems more like an argument to make more data available. Presumably more people at risk of a stroke can be notified by an algorithmic assessment than could be possible trying to fit them all through actual physician screenings, no? In a public health sense, it would do more good in terms of lives saved, even if algorithmic errors cost lives in some specific cases.
  - Spooky23 7y ago
    I’m familiar with programs that at scale that have been demonstrated to predict certain negative health/behavior patterns. From a medical point of view, you can assume a 10-20% probability of a negative outcome. If you layer on other factors or behaviors in the persons life, the probability of a bad outcome approaches 90%. Problem is, you need deeply intrusive data at scale. What are the consequences of a organization with Google/Facebook capability who also is your AI doctor? It’s easy to foresee complications.
mikorym 7y ago
> what decision making process if not a statistical I believe it's called eye-balling. You'll be suprised how good farmers are at this. It's also why I think tech in agriculture is something of an over-sell; farm managers are already some of the most efficient people you'll meet and even a notebook is sometimes too much to ask for them. Edit: To answer your question with more elaboration: A statistical model is a proxy for not having full knowledge of the subject matter. But any deep analysis of the subject matter will require personal attention. Farmers (to quote my example again) are specifically good because of their personal knowledge of the farm and the sheer amount of time spent working.

Spooky23 7y ago

If a predictive process discards risk for humans who lack access to healthcare, it’s creating an obvious ethical problem. There’s a big difference between writing a loan and missing a stroke.

mlthoughts2018 7y ago
That seems more like an argument to make more data available. Presumably more people at risk of a stroke can be notified by an algorithmic assessment than could be possible trying to fit them all through actual physician screenings, no? In a public health sense, it would do more good in terms of lives saved, even if algorithmic errors cost lives in some specific cases.
- Spooky23 7y ago
  I’m familiar with programs that at scale that have been demonstrated to predict certain negative health/behavior patterns. From a medical point of view, you can assume a 10-20% probability of a negative outcome. If you layer on other factors or behaviors in the persons life, the probability of a bad outcome approaches 90%. Problem is, you need deeply intrusive data at scale. What are the consequences of a organization with Google/Facebook capability who also is your AI doctor? It’s easy to foresee complications.

mikorym 7y ago

> what decision making process if not a statistical I believe it's called eye-balling. You'll be suprised how good farmers are at this. It's also why I think tech in agriculture is something of an over-sell; farm managers are already some of the most efficient people you'll meet and even a notebook is sometimes too much to ask for them. Edit: To answer your question with more elaboration: A statistical model is a proxy for not having full knowledge of the subject matter. But any deep analysis of the subject matter will require personal attention. Farmers (to quote my example again) are specifically good because of their personal knowledge of the farm and the sheer amount of time spent working.