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Going beyond everyday attacks, one famous war effort gave us programmable electric computers in order to break encryption, and there is no disputing how much va

Going beyond everyday attacks, one famous war effort gave us programmable electric computers in order to break encryption, and there is no disputing how much value came out of that for the winners of that war. Any country with the means will have been pouring in resources to recreate that advantage ever since. If private industry is on the cusp of quantum computing, then to me it’s a safe bet that intelligence agencies have had it for years. However, an advantage like this disappears the moment that evidence of its existence surfaces. It wouldn’t be used except in existential scenarios for that country.

mprev 7y ago
I often read comments where people say something along the lines of, “X is considered impossible with current technology but I bet the intelligence agencies have had it for years”. It seems reasonable that incremental developments might have been made sooner by government than academic researchers or industry. Indeed, there are examples. But leaps like quantum computing? I’m not ascribing this to you but I’ve noticed that there’s often a crossover between people who, on the one hand, believe government is pretty much incapable while, on the other hand, having some near magic ability to make huge technical leaps. Wartime is different, as then it’s pretty much all hands on deck.
- odyssey7 7y ago
  DoD spending in recent decades has reflected a sense that there's perpetually an r > 0 chance that we'll be in the middle of World War III in twenty years, and that we're willing to spend what it takes to ensure technological advantages for when that happens. Throughout world history, military technology has been a determining factor in when many civilizations stopped existing. The mission of the DoD is to secure the U.S. in perpetuity, so this is their core competency. Private industries, which can only approach moonshots tepidly out of fiduciary responsibility, are already making good progress on this. My hunch is merely based on the liklihood that the DoD - which spends unfathomable amounts on R&D and does not answer to shareholders - has been going at this longer and much stronger than any private organization.
  - perl4ever 7y ago
    The aggregate amount spent does not mean the government pays individuals more. I'm pretty sure the NSA can't compete with private industry for salaries. So that would cast some doubt on whether they can utilize the most talented.
gumby 7y ago
> ... it’s a safe bet that intelligence agencies have had it for years. I'm not so sure; indeed there are examples of that (consider NSA setting the s-box parameters to make DES more secure) but at the same time there are so many "experiments" under way just I the course of everyday business (that happen to apply to dual use tech) that the military often finds itself a generation or so behind COTS / consumer tech. > However, an advantage like this disappears the moment that evidence of its existence surfaces. [Thus] It wouldn’t be used except in existential scenarios for that country. We've become more sophisticated since operation mincemeat (http://www.themanwhoneverwas.com http://www.themanwhoneverwas.com). Such tech can be used for parallel construction: I discover via magic snooping that odyssey7 is planning something I don't like, and is doing it with odyssey6 who has poor security. I snoop on odyssey6 and build my case from that. Or I also learn that odyssey7 smokes pot, so break their car's tail light, have a cop stop them, search car, and magically find evidence used to build the real charge. Or whatever. The real breakthrough is hidden.

mprev 7y ago

I often read comments where people say something along the lines of, “X is considered impossible with current technology but I bet the intelligence agencies have had it for years”. It seems reasonable that incremental developments might have been made sooner by government than academic researchers or industry. Indeed, there are examples. But leaps like quantum computing? I’m not ascribing this to you but I’ve noticed that there’s often a crossover between people who, on the one hand, believe government is pretty much incapable while, on the other hand, having some near magic ability to make huge technical leaps. Wartime is different, as then it’s pretty much all hands on deck.

odyssey7 7y ago
DoD spending in recent decades has reflected a sense that there's perpetually an r > 0 chance that we'll be in the middle of World War III in twenty years, and that we're willing to spend what it takes to ensure technological advantages for when that happens. Throughout world history, military technology has been a determining factor in when many civilizations stopped existing. The mission of the DoD is to secure the U.S. in perpetuity, so this is their core competency. Private industries, which can only approach moonshots tepidly out of fiduciary responsibility, are already making good progress on this. My hunch is merely based on the liklihood that the DoD - which spends unfathomable amounts on R&D and does not answer to shareholders - has been going at this longer and much stronger than any private organization.
- perl4ever 7y ago
  The aggregate amount spent does not mean the government pays individuals more. I'm pretty sure the NSA can't compete with private industry for salaries. So that would cast some doubt on whether they can utilize the most talented.

gumby 7y ago

> ... it’s a safe bet that intelligence agencies have had it for years. I'm not so sure; indeed there are examples of that (consider NSA setting the s-box parameters to make DES more secure) but at the same time there are so many "experiments" under way just I the course of everyday business (that happen to apply to dual use tech) that the military often finds itself a generation or so behind COTS / consumer tech. > However, an advantage like this disappears the moment that evidence of its existence surfaces. [Thus] It wouldn’t be used except in existential scenarios for that country. We've become more sophisticated since operation mincemeat (http://www.themanwhoneverwas.com http://www.themanwhoneverwas.com). Such tech can be used for parallel construction: I discover via magic snooping that odyssey7 is planning something I don't like, and is doing it with odyssey6 who has poor security. I snoop on odyssey6 and build my case from that. Or I also learn that odyssey7 smokes pot, so break their car's tail light, have a cop stop them, search car, and magically find evidence used to build the real charge. Or whatever. The real breakthrough is hidden.