5 ms·

Ray Dalio says the world is in a ‘great sag’ and echoes the 1930s

21 points by spking 7y ago

gopher2 7y ago
I’ve found Ray Dalio’s macro pontificating to be kind of useless. Remember when we were having a “beautiful deleveraging.” Now we’re in a “great sag.” Makes more sense to me that these guys are just talking their book at a conceptual level because reflexivity.
- toomuchtodo 7y ago
  Piggybacking on this, it seems like a lot of folks in finance who have reached the top of the mountain during previous economic conditions that no longer exist are trying to take that (mostly) luck, (some) wisdom, and wealth, and parlay it in to status [1] because there's not much left to grasp for when you're a billionaire (Buffet, Dalio, etc) and you want to hold on to relevance as the sun sets. I admit I bought Dalio's book Principles (you got a free gift card for charity in the amount of the book, so why not) and I was not impressed with the ideology conveyed as keys to success. [1] https://web.archive.org/web/20190722191157/https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1002103360646823936.html https://web.archive.org/web/20190722191157/https://threadrea...
  - Goosee 7y ago
    His iOS app “Principles” contains the book for free I believe. Great read.
- lmg643 7y ago
  I think the rhetoric is a very sophisticated way to market the fund. (1) make highly generalized pronouncements that sound wise and get headlines because they make for good journalistic copy (2) make the business seem like it's driven by principles - eg, a system - and not just a few great PMs running it (founders). Any developers from BW on hacker news? Curious to know what your experience is like.
  - tracer4201 7y ago
    What you’re saying might as well be true, but I found his YouTube videos on the economic machine to be brilliant. I took a few semesters of Econ in college, and even then, I didn’t have my head wrapped around the bigger picture.
  - appleshore 7y ago
    His management system seems similar to nonviolent communication. He uses radical honesty among employees where everyone’s rating each other. That’s extreme but it probably has benefit.
    - chewz 7y ago
      > One stylized model for thinking about Bridgewater is that it is run by the computer with absolute logic and efficiency; in this model, the computer's main problem is keeping the 1,500 human employees busy so that they don't interfere with its perfect rationality. [1] > On this theory, the computer might have gotten fed up with Dalio -- who by even his own account can be a bit much, as a manager -- and given him some carefully calibrated hints to make himself scarce. "Hey Ray," Bridgetron 4000 probably said, "your insights are so good, you should really put them in a book. And a TED talk. You deserve it. Don't worry about the investing stuff, I'll handle that." [2] Matt Levine - [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2016-02-05/bridgewater-s-bosses-are-fighting-over-something https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2016-02-05/bridge... [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2017-10-13/the-case-against-bridgewater-isn-t-proven https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2017-10-13/the-ca...
  - kenned3 7y ago
    I'm not a developer.. but did spend several years at BW working with their developers. Ask away, i will see if i can answer some of your questions.
    - lmg643 7y ago
      How did the experience of shipping software compare to a "conventional" company, either a big corporation or a silicon valley type company? I get the sense the tendency to talk in big picture abstract would allow a lot of folks to bluster through. True SMEs would have to contend with the culture in order to get results in tech.
- keiferski 7y ago
  His book reads like a financier who thinks he’s a philosopher, or desperately wants to be perceived as one. I suppose that’s inevitable in a world that worships money.
  - notfromhere 7y ago
    Going the whole marcus aurelius route, but marcus aurelius had some genuinely unique thoughts and viewpoints. Financiers are much less interesting than they think they are, purely because money attracts an audience regardless of value.
    - ksec 7y ago
      >but marcus aurelius had some genuinely unique thoughts and viewpoints. The thing is though, Marcus Aurelius's thoughts were never intend to be made public. It was his own personal notes to himself and therefore has little to no conflict of interest. Where as Ray Dalio is selling books and influence. While the first part may be a sum that is meaningless to him, the latter part could not be easily discounted.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
ncmncm 7y ago
> The hedge fund titan claimed there were four types of war to watch for — trade, technology, currency and geopolitical In military school, they learn that there are three: naval, conducted at a distance; army, conducted at the border; and police, conducted within the borders. Crossing with Dalio's four, that would make 12 kinds; otherwise, just seven. Then we have civil, holy, and race. Mix and match.

21 points by spking 7y ago

I’ve found Ray Dalio’s macro pontificating to be kind of useless. Remember when we were having a “beautiful deleveraging.” Now we’re in a “great sag.” Makes more sense to me that these guys are just talking their book at a conceptual level because reflexivity.

toomuchtodo 7y ago
Piggybacking on this, it seems like a lot of folks in finance who have reached the top of the mountain during previous economic conditions that no longer exist are trying to take that (mostly) luck, (some) wisdom, and wealth, and parlay it in to status [1] because there's not much left to grasp for when you're a billionaire (Buffet, Dalio, etc) and you want to hold on to relevance as the sun sets. I admit I bought Dalio's book Principles (you got a free gift card for charity in the amount of the book, so why not) and I was not impressed with the ideology conveyed as keys to success. [1] https://web.archive.org/web/20190722191157/https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1002103360646823936.html https://web.archive.org/web/20190722191157/https://threadrea...
- Goosee 7y ago
  His iOS app “Principles” contains the book for free I believe. Great read.
lmg643 7y ago
I think the rhetoric is a very sophisticated way to market the fund. (1) make highly generalized pronouncements that sound wise and get headlines because they make for good journalistic copy (2) make the business seem like it's driven by principles - eg, a system - and not just a few great PMs running it (founders). Any developers from BW on hacker news? Curious to know what your experience is like.
- tracer4201 7y ago
  What you’re saying might as well be true, but I found his YouTube videos on the economic machine to be brilliant. I took a few semesters of Econ in college, and even then, I didn’t have my head wrapped around the bigger picture.
- appleshore 7y ago
  His management system seems similar to nonviolent communication. He uses radical honesty among employees where everyone’s rating each other. That’s extreme but it probably has benefit.
  - chewz 7y ago
    > One stylized model for thinking about Bridgewater is that it is run by the computer with absolute logic and efficiency; in this model, the computer's main problem is keeping the 1,500 human employees busy so that they don't interfere with its perfect rationality. [1] > On this theory, the computer might have gotten fed up with Dalio -- who by even his own account can be a bit much, as a manager -- and given him some carefully calibrated hints to make himself scarce. "Hey Ray," Bridgetron 4000 probably said, "your insights are so good, you should really put them in a book. And a TED talk. You deserve it. Don't worry about the investing stuff, I'll handle that." [2] Matt Levine - [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2016-02-05/bridgewater-s-bosses-are-fighting-over-something https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2016-02-05/bridge... [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2017-10-13/the-case-against-bridgewater-isn-t-proven https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2017-10-13/the-ca...
- kenned3 7y ago
  I'm not a developer.. but did spend several years at BW working with their developers. Ask away, i will see if i can answer some of your questions.
  - lmg643 7y ago
    How did the experience of shipping software compare to a "conventional" company, either a big corporation or a silicon valley type company? I get the sense the tendency to talk in big picture abstract would allow a lot of folks to bluster through. True SMEs would have to contend with the culture in order to get results in tech.
keiferski 7y ago
His book reads like a financier who thinks he’s a philosopher, or desperately wants to be perceived as one. I suppose that’s inevitable in a world that worships money.
- notfromhere 7y ago
  Going the whole marcus aurelius route, but marcus aurelius had some genuinely unique thoughts and viewpoints. Financiers are much less interesting than they think they are, purely because money attracts an audience regardless of value.
  - ksec 7y ago
    >but marcus aurelius had some genuinely unique thoughts and viewpoints. The thing is though, Marcus Aurelius's thoughts were never intend to be made public. It was his own personal notes to himself and therefore has little to no conflict of interest. Where as Ray Dalio is selling books and influence. While the first part may be a sum that is meaningless to him, the latter part could not be easily discounted.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]

ncmncm 7y ago

> The hedge fund titan claimed there were four types of war to watch for — trade, technology, currency and geopolitical In military school, they learn that there are three: naval, conducted at a distance; army, conducted at the border; and police, conducted within the borders. Crossing with Dalio's four, that would make 12 kinds; otherwise, just seven. Then we have civil, holy, and race. Mix and match.