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It does matter, because those that reject it will at some point have to justify themselves to the electorate in a General Election, of which currently the oppos
by growlist 7y ago
It does matter, because those that reject it will at some point have to justify themselves to the electorate in a General Election, of which currently the opposition are running scared.
Edit: and what's more to remind everyone - over and over and over again we were told 'This is the only deal!' by Barnier, Juncker, Varadkar and many many others, and the anti-Brexit crowd used this to bash Leave over the head again and again. Turns out it wasn't the only deal. Fancy that!
- mpweiher 7y agoAhem...as far as I can tell, this is the solution the EU initially proposed wrt Northern Ireland. It was the UK that rejected that solution. So "only deal" is always in the context of "respecting UK red lines". Many other deals were on offer, including Norway etc.
- growlist 7y ago> So "only deal" is always in the context of "respecting UK red lines". Many other deals were on offer, including Norway etc. No true Scotsman
- shrikant 7y agoThis is not an example of that. Everytime someone (whether in the UK or EU) said "There's no other deal possible", it was always in the context of the UK and EU red lines. Surely as a hacker you must see that once the constraints change, the problem space to explore also changes.
- tom_mellior 7y agoA Norway-like deal was never on offer from the EU as far as I can tell. What's more, even Norway said that they would not support a Norway-like arrangement with the UK joining EFTA: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Free_Trade_Association#United_Kingdom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Free_Trade_Associatio...
- benj111 7y agoThere's nothing stopping the UK from trying to negotiate that kind of relationship. That was never sought though. May's red lines made that kind of relationship impossible.
- tom_mellior 7y agoSure, the UK could try that. I was just replying specifically to the assertion that other deals like Norway were "on offer". A Norway deal was discussed, but nobody really offered it to the UK.
- benj111 7y agoI think the parent was talking about the domestic conversation around the Brexit vote. The red lines weren't drawn until after that vote.
- mpweiher 7y ago> Norway-like deal was never on offer This is simply not true. See Barnier's presentation graphic: https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/michel-barnier-killer-graphic-brexit-theresa-mays-red-lines-on-bespoke-model_uk_5a39497ce4b0fc99878f2058 https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/michel-barnier-killer... The various models shown (with variations) were all on offer by the EU, rejected/made impossible by the UK's red lines.
- gpderetta 7y agothat's one nasty GDPR nag screen. 10 clicks deep and still no way to opt out.
- tom_mellior 7y agoThanks for that graphic. I don't know what Barnier said along showing that slide, but for me it looks more like "there's no point even thinking about offering or discussing these options if you've ruled them out already" and less like "we have offered all of these in earnest". But I understand that your interpretation differs. Edit: I found this: https://www.businessinsider.de/what-is-the-norway-model-brexit-2018-4?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.de/what-is-the-norway-model-brex... "The EU has always said the Norway option is available to the UK.", which I'll choose to believe. I stand corrected.
- lkramer 7y agoIt was the only deal with the red lines May had declared. Johnson was willing to compromise, so a different deal could be struck. A different deal could also be struck if the UK were willing to stay fully in the customs union or otherwise were willing to align themselves more to the EU.
- OscarCunningham 7y agoRight. May needed the DUP to keep her majority, so she couldn't propose a deal that they wouldn't accept. Johnson has no majority so the DUP are no longer important.
- pjc50 7y agoAnd of course it's not the only deal - but notice that it moves none of the EU "red lines". Instead it puts a customs border between parts of the UK. Which was previously unthinkable on the UK side. And was certainly not in the Leave referendum prospectus. Anyone who thinks this deal is good - better than remain - needs to articulate why a customs border in the UK is an improvement.
- lawlessone 7y agoThe alternative for the DUP if the scupper this will be a united Ireland referendum
- me_me_me 7y agoRepublic of Ireland cannot take the reunification financially. Northern Ireland is underdeveloped and relying on governmental post to keep afloat. Rep doesn't currently have enough resources to support integration of north. Unfortunately at the moment its romanticized dream.
- growlist 7y agoThis is the funny thing about NI - it's portrayed as a catastrophic loss for UK prestige if Ireland were to unite, whereas there are plenty of politicians, civil servants etc. that would be happier if it were no longer the UK's problem, and the remainder of the UK would be better off as a consequence. The same can almost be said of Scotland - England/Wales taxpayers would be better off without it, for example.
- OscarCunningham 7y agoPeople do not always vote in their economic best interests.
- yorwba 7y agoAccording to https://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/sites/agriculture/files/rural-development-2014-2020/country-files/uk/factsheet-northern-ireland_en.pdf https://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/sites/agriculture/files/rur... , the EU allocated 646 million euros to be spent on the Rural Development Programme in Northern Ireland 2014-2020. Not sure how that compares to UK government spending. Edit: http://ec.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/sites/unitedkingdom/files/eu_funding_in_ni_2007-2013_and_2014-2020_1.pdf http://ec.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/sites/unitedkingdom/files/... gives a total of 3.5 billion euros EU funding in the same time frame, but only 228 million in the RDP, which made me realize that the 646 million above include 417 million of national co-funding, which I guess means the UK government. Edit 2: According to https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/conservative-and-dup-agreement-and-uk-government-financial-support-for-northern-ireland/uk-government-financial-support-for-northern-ireland https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/conservative-and-... the UK government has made £2.5 billion available to Northern Ireland over 3 years, which works out to almost twice the amount provided by the EU on a yearly basis. That also squares with the similar proportions for the RDP funding alone.
- pjc50 7y agoWe can't have an election until the extension against no-deal is secured. If Johnson wanted an election he shouldn't have made the fuss about being determined to exit at the end of the month no matter what.
- growlist 7y agoThat's of no consequence to what I said. The opposition cannot run for ever.
- pjc50 7y agoThey're not running, and it doesn't need to be "forever" - we can, and most likely will at this rate, have an election before Christmas. We can't have an election while No Deal is a ticking timebomb in the middle of it. What part of that do you refuse to understand?
- growlist 7y agoLabour are going to get absolutely smashed.
- arethuza 7y agoAnd the Conservative vote will be split by the Brexit party - interesting times!
- tom_mellior 7y agoElsewhere you wrote that they have a good chance of winning using their "voter fraud tactics", whatever that may mean. Aren't you contradicting yourself?
- faissaloo 7y agoI disagree, Labour would win if we had a general election but they don't want to win because they don't want to deal with this mess, politically most of Parliament sees this is a damned if you do damn if you don't situation.
- Traster 7y agoThis deal is going to fail because of the pro-brexit contingent of the conservative party. The DUP are against and it looks like the ERG are likely to follow suit once it becomes clear exactly what is agreed. So whilst you're right that they'll face a GE at some point, the people responsible for stopping the deal to leave the EU are likely going to be campaigning for a deal to leave the EU (and then continuing to vote against it if they get elected).
- benj111 7y agoAgreed, nothing has substantially changed on either side, this is a moving of deck chairs just so BJ can waft a piece of paper. The DUP are still against it, the rump of Labour, lib Dems, and the rest will still be against it.
- arethuza 7y agoWell, it might matter in that respect but as far as the short term it does look like we won't be leaving on the 31st. Mind you - I'd happily accept this deal if there was a confirmatory referendum - so maybe some parties would agree with this deal on that basis. [NB Even Dominic Cummings used to think a confirmatory referendum was a good idea].
- benj111 7y agoTo be honest, I'd like a 2nd referendum just to get the politicians to think about a deal that would be acceptable to both sides, rather than being hard remain or hard leave.
- gpderetta 7y ago> This is the only deal That was true given the constraints imposed by UK. If UK was willing to change the "red lines" different deals were always possible. The whole UK backstop for example was actually requested by the UK, EU only wanted NI in. It seems that Boris backtracked from it (details are still not known) and a new deal was made. For me the surprising thing is that Boris actually managed to get a deal at all, as most just assumed he was stalling.
- SirHound 7y agoIt's the same deal only the backstop is a permanent arrangement.
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- OscarCunningham 7y agoThe idea that Labour don't want an election is absurd. They've been demanding one since last year. The only reason they're voting against one now is that Johnson would pull the UK out of the EU whilst Parliament was dissolved. They'll support an election as soon as possible if there's another extension.
- growlist 7y ago...because the extension is a cynical tactic to attempt to hurt the Conservatives' popularity. Suspect either of Corbyn or McDonnell are terminally unpopular with the public though, but they'll roll out their voter fraud tactics as seen many times in the past, so we might end up with them after all. And god help us if that happens.
- NeedMoreTea 7y agoThe Conservative coalition the Fixed Term Parliament Act into being knowing it requires a super majority to end a government early. That was the cynical idiocy. It's broken our parliament. The LibDems, who proposed it, clearly were not thinking at all when they shat that idea out. Why wouldn't every non-Conservative politician, including Corbyn et al, vote against a controversial government getting their way? Especially when BoJo threw away his own majority by ejecting MPs. Are you saying that if roles were reversed the Tories would not so vote?
- mytailorisrich 7y agoIt's one thing to demand something when you know you won't get it, it's quite another when you know you will get it. Obviously the truth is that they want a general election only if they reckon they can win it, which at the moment is dubious.
- OscarCunningham 7y agoOkay, I was wrong.
- OscarCunningham 7y ago
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