8 ms·

European Commission President Juncker tweets that a Brexit deal has been done

67 points by seapunk 7y ago

jandeboevrie 7y ago
Duplicate of https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21280334 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21280334
- akmarinov 7y ago
  But this one has comments, the other one doesn't :(
rvz 7y ago
The DUP doesn't support it, so this is not a fully agreed deal. Between the EU and the UK it is a 'deal', but as far as the Democratic and Unionist Party (DUP) is still concerned, they still stand by their rejection of it [0] even after their announcement of the deal. Therefore, more negotiations are needed to satisfy both the DUP and the EU before holding a vote to MPs first. [0] https://twitter.com/duponline/status/1184707245478678533 https://twitter.com/duponline/status/1184707245478678533
- mytailorisrich 7y ago
  Or... the plan is to have a general election with Boris Johnson able to say "I have a deal agreed with the EU, now give me a clear majority and let's get on with it", and bye bye DUP.
  - tonyedgecombe 7y ago
    My guess is it will be put to parliament, there will be an amendment added for a second referendum, he will complain about it but deep down be rather pleased to have it taken off his hands.
    - Freak_NL 7y ago
      A referendum with the choice between remain and this deal would allow for this deal to be voted out without too much loss of face on the Leave-side — which is all that seems to matter to most of the backbenchers not in favour of an outright hard brexit. An election before a referendum on the deal would make this election all about brexit (again) in a time where other priorities should get the focus.
  - pjc50 7y ago
    His current majority is -41, I believe, due to sacking a lot of MPs. This strategy didn't work for Theresa May (indeed it created the DUP situation!) and it won't work for Johnson.
    - Tomte 7y ago
      Many of those 21 MPs have already signalled they would vote with the government.
    - rndgermandude 7y ago
      The Conservatives would at the very least lose a sizable chunk of their seats to Farage's Brexit Party. But Boris is a bit out of options here. As you said, he already lost the majority so the only thing keeping him in power right now is that the opposition didn't yet vote on removing him. What's more: he is not May. He might actually come out of an election successfully in that he can keep being the PM, forming a coalition with the Brexit Party that keeps him in power. While his own party would still have lost lots of seats and lots of goodwill for going in bed with the Brexit Party. But he won't mind, it's Boris First, Party distant second, Country somewhere behind that as a third.
      - Freak_NL 7y ago
        With first-past-the-post, the Brexit Party doesn't have much chance of gaining more than a few seats, just like UKIP. The EU parliamentary election does not do first-past-the-post, so they could gain a number of seats proportional to the number of votes received there.
        rndgermandude 7y ago
        I wouldn't be too sure about it. Sure, they will not be able to repeat the results of the last EU election (where they came out on top) at home in the UK, but they still might get gain enough seats to become a player and even a "king maker". After all, we live in a time where every poll said Remain will win, and every pollster said Trump had essentially no chance of winning. But you're right, First Past the Post voting can pose a major obstacle for them and probably will pose a major obstacle for them in the next election even if it happens sooner than later. Like in 2015 when they had a popular vote share of 12.6% but got had one seat (or 0.2% of seats)
- rndgermandude 7y ago
  Boris already lost the majority, even without the DUP defecting. But (parts of) the opposition parties could actually vote for the deal, thinking it's better than no-deal or gambling on a second referendum.
  - pjc50 7y ago
    Which parts? Can we name names? Are there really that many people willing to get kicked out of the Labour party at this late stage to support an obviously bad deal?
    - DavidHm 7y ago
      19 backbenchers. Probably not suffient to swing the vote, but more people might come out. https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/107132/labour-mps-call-eu-compromise-they-pledge-vote https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labou...
      - rndgermandude 7y ago
        That, and also some of those "sacked" Conservatives. They are still elected members of the House of Commons with voting rights. They wanted a deal, now one is on the table they can vote for. While e.g. the people Labour sacked over sexual harassment allegations will probably stay home. And there is also the Lib Dems who are caught between a rock and a hard place, who might figure this deal is better than nothing.
    - growlist 7y ago
      Because Labour is looking like such an election winning machine right now: 'Louise Ellman quits Labour party with fierce attack on Corbyn ...the Jewish MP attacked the Labour leader’s record on antisemitism, saying: “Under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, antisemitism has become mainstream in the Labour party. Jewish members have been bullied, abused and driven out. Antisemites have felt comfortable and vile conspiracy theories have been propagated. A party that permits anti-Jewish racism to flourish cannot be called anti-racist.” She added: “The overwhelming majority of the Jewish community is fearful of what a Corbyn government might mean for Britain’s Jews. I share those concerns. But this issue is not simply about the Jewish community. This is about the nature of our society. Jeremy Corbyn’s seeming tolerance of antisemitism would embolden racists, poison our public debate and damage the social cohesion of our country.' https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/16/louise-ellman-quits-labour-party-over-antisemitism https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/16/louise-ellm...
kmetan 7y ago
There is no such title as "EU President".
- seapunk 7y ago
  Fixed
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
arethuza 7y ago
Doesn't really matter unless it is also passed by the UK parliament - which looks unlikely at this time, which was also the fate of the last deal that Theresa May's government negotiated.
- growlist 7y ago
  It does matter, because those that reject it will at some point have to justify themselves to the electorate in a General Election, of which currently the opposition are running scared. Edit: and what's more to remind everyone - over and over and over again we were told 'This is the only deal!' by Barnier, Juncker, Varadkar and many many others, and the anti-Brexit crowd used this to bash Leave over the head again and again. Turns out it wasn't the only deal. Fancy that!
  - mpweiher 7y ago
    Ahem...as far as I can tell, this is the solution the EU initially proposed wrt Northern Ireland. It was the UK that rejected that solution. So "only deal" is always in the context of "respecting UK red lines". Many other deals were on offer, including Norway etc.
    - growlist 7y ago
      > So "only deal" is always in the context of "respecting UK red lines". Many other deals were on offer, including Norway etc. No true Scotsman
      - shrikant 7y ago
        This is not an example of that. Everytime someone (whether in the UK or EU) said "There's no other deal possible", it was always in the context of the UK and EU red lines. Surely as a hacker you must see that once the constraints change, the problem space to explore also changes.
    - tom_mellior 7y ago
      A Norway-like deal was never on offer from the EU as far as I can tell. What's more, even Norway said that they would not support a Norway-like arrangement with the UK joining EFTA: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Free_Trade_Association#United_Kingdom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Free_Trade_Associatio...
wrnr 7y ago
It's a tragedy this divorce, our wife is leaving us and we get to keep the kids.
deca6cda37d0 7y ago
Wouldn’t the whole brexit thing be easier if there wasn’t a UK anymore and 4 individual countries. Scotland for sure and Northern Ireland I guess want to stay in the EU. England wants to leave. Wales I’m not sure about.
- e2le 7y ago
  Not everyone in England wants to leave either. Not everyone in Scotland wants to stay.
  - mcv 7y ago
    Politics is always a matter of compromise. Allow Scotland to stay while England leaves, and give everybody some time to move if they're unhappy with the direction of their country.
    - me_me_me 7y ago
      How would that even work? Individual country laws between England and Scotland couldn't clash with EU laws. That would then infringe on England's independence.
      - NullPrefix 7y ago
        Three way merge? I've heard there are tools to help with this.
      - mcv 7y ago
        I mean England gets to be as independent as they want, but so does Scotland.
    - beojan 7y ago
      This is a really bad idea. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partition_of_India https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partition_of_India
  - tom_mellior 7y ago
r721 7y ago
BBC story: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50079385 https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50079385
Illniyar 7y ago
This didn't change much - https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50079385 https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50079385 From with it looks like the backstop is still there. Northern Ireland is going to have different Rules than the rest of the UK that align with EU regulations (it's unclear how much different but the issue was never one of degrees). There is still going to be a customs check between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK to determine if goods are heading out to the EU or only inside Northern Ireland.
HugoDaniel 7y ago
Will farage finally leave the EU with this deal ? It certainly feels like he is the one pushing the barrel on a race to the bottom. His mep salary most definetly makes him interested in that.
- rvz 7y ago
  No he will not. He stated that he would rather back an extension + General Election to go for a deal with the Brexit Party, than back Boris's deal due to the agreement mentioning a placement of an internal border between the UK and NI. At this point, he would rather go for a no deal.

67 points by seapunk 7y ago

jandeboevrie 7y ago

Duplicate of https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21280334 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21280334

akmarinov 7y ago
But this one has comments, the other one doesn't :(

rvz 7y ago

The DUP doesn't support it, so this is not a fully agreed deal. Between the EU and the UK it is a 'deal', but as far as the Democratic and Unionist Party (DUP) is still concerned, they still stand by their rejection of it [0] even after their announcement of the deal. Therefore, more negotiations are needed to satisfy both the DUP and the EU before holding a vote to MPs first. [0] https://twitter.com/duponline/status/1184707245478678533 https://twitter.com/duponline/status/1184707245478678533

mytailorisrich 7y ago
Or... the plan is to have a general election with Boris Johnson able to say "I have a deal agreed with the EU, now give me a clear majority and let's get on with it", and bye bye DUP.
- tonyedgecombe 7y ago
  My guess is it will be put to parliament, there will be an amendment added for a second referendum, he will complain about it but deep down be rather pleased to have it taken off his hands.
  - Freak_NL 7y ago
    A referendum with the choice between remain and this deal would allow for this deal to be voted out without too much loss of face on the Leave-side — which is all that seems to matter to most of the backbenchers not in favour of an outright hard brexit. An election before a referendum on the deal would make this election all about brexit (again) in a time where other priorities should get the focus.
- pjc50 7y ago
  His current majority is -41, I believe, due to sacking a lot of MPs. This strategy didn't work for Theresa May (indeed it created the DUP situation!) and it won't work for Johnson.
  - Tomte 7y ago
    Many of those 21 MPs have already signalled they would vote with the government.
  - rndgermandude 7y ago
    The Conservatives would at the very least lose a sizable chunk of their seats to Farage's Brexit Party. But Boris is a bit out of options here. As you said, he already lost the majority so the only thing keeping him in power right now is that the opposition didn't yet vote on removing him. What's more: he is not May. He might actually come out of an election successfully in that he can keep being the PM, forming a coalition with the Brexit Party that keeps him in power. While his own party would still have lost lots of seats and lots of goodwill for going in bed with the Brexit Party. But he won't mind, it's Boris First, Party distant second, Country somewhere behind that as a third.
    - Freak_NL 7y ago
      With first-past-the-post, the Brexit Party doesn't have much chance of gaining more than a few seats, just like UKIP. The EU parliamentary election does not do first-past-the-post, so they could gain a number of seats proportional to the number of votes received there.
      - rndgermandude 7y ago
        I wouldn't be too sure about it. Sure, they will not be able to repeat the results of the last EU election (where they came out on top) at home in the UK, but they still might get gain enough seats to become a player and even a "king maker". After all, we live in a time where every poll said Remain will win, and every pollster said Trump had essentially no chance of winning. But you're right, First Past the Post voting can pose a major obstacle for them and probably will pose a major obstacle for them in the next election even if it happens sooner than later. Like in 2015 when they had a popular vote share of 12.6% but got had one seat (or 0.2% of seats)
rndgermandude 7y ago
Boris already lost the majority, even without the DUP defecting. But (parts of) the opposition parties could actually vote for the deal, thinking it's better than no-deal or gambling on a second referendum.
- pjc50 7y ago
  Which parts? Can we name names? Are there really that many people willing to get kicked out of the Labour party at this late stage to support an obviously bad deal?
  - DavidHm 7y ago
    19 backbenchers. Probably not suffient to swing the vote, but more people might come out. https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/107132/labour-mps-call-eu-compromise-they-pledge-vote https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labou...
    - rndgermandude 7y ago
      That, and also some of those "sacked" Conservatives. They are still elected members of the House of Commons with voting rights. They wanted a deal, now one is on the table they can vote for. While e.g. the people Labour sacked over sexual harassment allegations will probably stay home. And there is also the Lib Dems who are caught between a rock and a hard place, who might figure this deal is better than nothing.
  - growlist 7y ago
    Because Labour is looking like such an election winning machine right now: 'Louise Ellman quits Labour party with fierce attack on Corbyn ...the Jewish MP attacked the Labour leader’s record on antisemitism, saying: “Under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, antisemitism has become mainstream in the Labour party. Jewish members have been bullied, abused and driven out. Antisemites have felt comfortable and vile conspiracy theories have been propagated. A party that permits anti-Jewish racism to flourish cannot be called anti-racist.” She added: “The overwhelming majority of the Jewish community is fearful of what a Corbyn government might mean for Britain’s Jews. I share those concerns. But this issue is not simply about the Jewish community. This is about the nature of our society. Jeremy Corbyn’s seeming tolerance of antisemitism would embolden racists, poison our public debate and damage the social cohesion of our country.' https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/16/louise-ellman-quits-labour-party-over-antisemitism https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/16/louise-ellm...

kmetan 7y ago

There is no such title as "EU President".

seapunk 7y ago
Fixed

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

arethuza 7y ago

Doesn't really matter unless it is also passed by the UK parliament - which looks unlikely at this time, which was also the fate of the last deal that Theresa May's government negotiated.

growlist 7y ago
It does matter, because those that reject it will at some point have to justify themselves to the electorate in a General Election, of which currently the opposition are running scared. Edit: and what's more to remind everyone - over and over and over again we were told 'This is the only deal!' by Barnier, Juncker, Varadkar and many many others, and the anti-Brexit crowd used this to bash Leave over the head again and again. Turns out it wasn't the only deal. Fancy that!
- mpweiher 7y ago
  Ahem...as far as I can tell, this is the solution the EU initially proposed wrt Northern Ireland. It was the UK that rejected that solution. So "only deal" is always in the context of "respecting UK red lines". Many other deals were on offer, including Norway etc.
  - growlist 7y ago
    > So "only deal" is always in the context of "respecting UK red lines". Many other deals were on offer, including Norway etc. No true Scotsman
    - shrikant 7y ago
      This is not an example of that. Everytime someone (whether in the UK or EU) said "There's no other deal possible", it was always in the context of the UK and EU red lines. Surely as a hacker you must see that once the constraints change, the problem space to explore also changes.
  - tom_mellior 7y ago
    A Norway-like deal was never on offer from the EU as far as I can tell. What's more, even Norway said that they would not support a Norway-like arrangement with the UK joining EFTA: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Free_Trade_Association#United_Kingdom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Free_Trade_Associatio...

wrnr 7y ago

It's a tragedy this divorce, our wife is leaving us and we get to keep the kids.

deca6cda37d0 7y ago

Wouldn’t the whole brexit thing be easier if there wasn’t a UK anymore and 4 individual countries. Scotland for sure and Northern Ireland I guess want to stay in the EU. England wants to leave. Wales I’m not sure about.

e2le 7y ago
Not everyone in England wants to leave either. Not everyone in Scotland wants to stay.
- mcv 7y ago
  Politics is always a matter of compromise. Allow Scotland to stay while England leaves, and give everybody some time to move if they're unhappy with the direction of their country.
  - me_me_me 7y ago
    How would that even work? Individual country laws between England and Scotland couldn't clash with EU laws. That would then infringe on England's independence.
    - NullPrefix 7y ago
      Three way merge? I've heard there are tools to help with this.
    - mcv 7y ago
      I mean England gets to be as independent as they want, but so does Scotland.
  - beojan 7y ago
    This is a really bad idea. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partition_of_India https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partition_of_India
- tom_mellior 7y ago

r721 7y ago

BBC story: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50079385 https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50079385

Illniyar 7y ago

This didn't change much - https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50079385 https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50079385 From with it looks like the backstop is still there. Northern Ireland is going to have different Rules than the rest of the UK that align with EU regulations (it's unclear how much different but the issue was never one of degrees). There is still going to be a customs check between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK to determine if goods are heading out to the EU or only inside Northern Ireland.

HugoDaniel 7y ago

Will farage finally leave the EU with this deal ? It certainly feels like he is the one pushing the barrel on a race to the bottom. His mep salary most definetly makes him interested in that.

rvz 7y ago
No he will not. He stated that he would rather back an extension + General Election to go for a deal with the Brexit Party, than back Boris's deal due to the agreement mentioning a placement of an internal border between the UK and NI. At this point, he would rather go for a no deal.