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Turkey won’t be able to arm or use those nukes, while they might be bold they aren’t bat shit crazy taking control of those weapons would require them to engage

Turkey won’t be able to arm or use those nukes, while they might be bold they aren’t bat shit crazy taking control of those weapons would require them to engage and likely kill the entire protection detail and effectively start a war with the US. If Turkey takes those weapons the US would have to respond with an immediate assault if not Russia will as there is no freaking way Moscow would allow 50 US nukes to go missing on their drop step, Israel might also decide to take action but their options are limited to only a large scale air assault since troop deployment over that area is impossible as there would be no safe ground to retreat too. Turkey isn’t holding anything hostage in fact I think the moment they even jokingly mention those weapons is the moment the US expels them out of NATO and introduces Turkey to a USMC amphibious ready group and a carrier strike group.

aparashk 7y ago
AFAIK Turkey’s army is NATO's biggest and quite modern by any standard, hence Israel may want to stay out of such a conflict. Neither US nor Russia have had a war at this scale since WW2.
- dogma1138 7y ago
  Their military isn't that modern, not in any way in comparison to the US. Their newest tank is the Leopard 2 in an A4 variant, the main workhorse of their armour is still the roughly 1000 M60 Patton (with about 200 improved by Israel to "M60 Sabra" based on the Israeli M60 Magach 7C design). Airforce wise they have about 200 F-16's and about 50 F4 Phantoms they have no air superiority fighters. Neither Turkey nor Israel can engage in land warfare as neither has force projection beyond a land invasion, the engagements would be limited to air power, and possibly strategic strikes by conventional ballistic/cruise missiles which turkey doesn't seem to have much off if any. Incirlik Air Base is fairly close to sea about 40KM from the coast line, Israel can definitely use standoff munitions which Turkey lacks as long as the weapons are not moved deeper into Turkey beyond that they would have to engage the Turkish air defense systems and CAP. Overall Israel has an air force which is slightly larger than Turkey, however they do have over 80 F-15's including about 30 F-15I (Improved derivative of the Strike Eagle) and nearly 20 F-35's in service now, they have better air to air missiles and their air defenses are better than Turkey's and they have proven experience in carrying out successful air raids in denied airspaces which Turkey lacks. While they are unlikely to engage each other this isn't a conflict that can blow out to an all out war however it can turn into a small scale skirmish as long as Turkey is kicked out of NATO prior to any Israeli action it's not a skirmish that would favor turkey overall. Israel is quite likely to be able to execute an air raid without losses and retreat back to friendly airspace, both Cyprus (Republic of) and Greece have strong military ties to Israel and a sufficient beef with Turkey so even if the Israeli assets can't retreat fast enough to Israeli air space there are friendly skies which Turkey would not likely immediately breach in the region for them to retreat too. That said this is a highly unlikely scenario because if either Russia or Israel take action against Turkey to stop them seizing from the nuclear weapons it would make the US look even weaker, and while Russia wouldn't mind doing that Israel would only do that in case they know fairly for certain that the US would not do anything other than backchannel talks to get the nukes back.
panarky 7y ago
> Turkey won’t be able to arm or use those nukes A car is going 120 km/h through the desert toward a cliff. But there are multiple ditches and big rocks between the car and the cliff, so it's very unlikely it will actually drive off the cliff. And even if it does drive off the cliff, the airbags and restraints will probably keep the passengers from dying. So it's extremely unlikely that everyone will die. > bat shit crazy What's batshit crazy is that the car is driving toward the cliff in the first place. It's batshit crazy that the car ever left the paved highway at all. Come to think of it, why is a car anywhere near such a dangerous area with a trunk full of nuclear warheads and a drunk driver at the wheel?
- radu_floricica 7y ago
  Cause people voted it so, and keep on voting this way. And no, dismissing them as stupid isn't helping one bit. They have their reasons for doing it. They may well be opaque, mistaken or (often) plain selfish, but there are always reasons.
  - mvid 7y ago
    Sometimes the reason is stupidity

aparashk 7y ago

AFAIK Turkey’s army is NATO's biggest and quite modern by any standard, hence Israel may want to stay out of such a conflict. Neither US nor Russia have had a war at this scale since WW2.

dogma1138 7y ago
Their military isn't that modern, not in any way in comparison to the US. Their newest tank is the Leopard 2 in an A4 variant, the main workhorse of their armour is still the roughly 1000 M60 Patton (with about 200 improved by Israel to "M60 Sabra" based on the Israeli M60 Magach 7C design). Airforce wise they have about 200 F-16's and about 50 F4 Phantoms they have no air superiority fighters. Neither Turkey nor Israel can engage in land warfare as neither has force projection beyond a land invasion, the engagements would be limited to air power, and possibly strategic strikes by conventional ballistic/cruise missiles which turkey doesn't seem to have much off if any. Incirlik Air Base is fairly close to sea about 40KM from the coast line, Israel can definitely use standoff munitions which Turkey lacks as long as the weapons are not moved deeper into Turkey beyond that they would have to engage the Turkish air defense systems and CAP. Overall Israel has an air force which is slightly larger than Turkey, however they do have over 80 F-15's including about 30 F-15I (Improved derivative of the Strike Eagle) and nearly 20 F-35's in service now, they have better air to air missiles and their air defenses are better than Turkey's and they have proven experience in carrying out successful air raids in denied airspaces which Turkey lacks. While they are unlikely to engage each other this isn't a conflict that can blow out to an all out war however it can turn into a small scale skirmish as long as Turkey is kicked out of NATO prior to any Israeli action it's not a skirmish that would favor turkey overall. Israel is quite likely to be able to execute an air raid without losses and retreat back to friendly airspace, both Cyprus (Republic of) and Greece have strong military ties to Israel and a sufficient beef with Turkey so even if the Israeli assets can't retreat fast enough to Israeli air space there are friendly skies which Turkey would not likely immediately breach in the region for them to retreat too. That said this is a highly unlikely scenario because if either Russia or Israel take action against Turkey to stop them seizing from the nuclear weapons it would make the US look even weaker, and while Russia wouldn't mind doing that Israel would only do that in case they know fairly for certain that the US would not do anything other than backchannel talks to get the nukes back.

panarky 7y ago

> Turkey won’t be able to arm or use those nukes A car is going 120 km/h through the desert toward a cliff. But there are multiple ditches and big rocks between the car and the cliff, so it's very unlikely it will actually drive off the cliff. And even if it does drive off the cliff, the airbags and restraints will probably keep the passengers from dying. So it's extremely unlikely that everyone will die. > bat shit crazy What's batshit crazy is that the car is driving toward the cliff in the first place. It's batshit crazy that the car ever left the paved highway at all. Come to think of it, why is a car anywhere near such a dangerous area with a trunk full of nuclear warheads and a drunk driver at the wheel?

radu_floricica 7y ago
Cause people voted it so, and keep on voting this way. And no, dismissing them as stupid isn't helping one bit. They have their reasons for doing it. They may well be opaque, mistaken or (often) plain selfish, but there are always reasons.
- mvid 7y ago
  Sometimes the reason is stupidity