5 ms·

Yeah, this has been so predictable. There are a lot of people who seem to feel like Tesla's accomplishments are trivial, but the reality is that building cars i

by jsight 7y ago

Yeah, this has been so predictable. There are a lot of people who seem to feel like Tesla's accomplishments are trivial, but the reality is that building cars is hard. Building them at any kind of scale (even tens of thousands a year) is incredibly hard for a business that has never done it before. The great surprise isn't so much the failures as that Tesla has succeeded at getting to the volumes that they have.

cogman10 7y ago
And more. Tesla didn't just make "The" electric car, they made a charging network better than pretty much anything else out there. At this point other contenders are simply to late to the game. Tesla fundamentally changed the market and they have established themselves in a way that will be hard for competitors to topple. After all, when Tesla pushed out the X/S, what was the competition doing? Mostly just retrofitting batteries and engines as cheap as possible on current frames. Tesla made a car that could be a universal car while everyone else was focused on short range secondary commuters. Now, competition not only has to compete with the fact that Tesla is what people think of when they think "Next green car" they also have to find some way they can be better with a public charging network that is 10 years behind what Tesla currently has. It isn't enough to push out a car that can go 200 miles on batteries alone anymore. You have to be better than Tesla, and that is a really high bar. So, the real question is "What's next for tesla" can they continue to be the best in class? Will they be upstaged by the current old guard? Who knows? One thing is for sure, car companies are going to need to evolve to compete with Tesla's offerings.
- sh87 7y ago
  I hope Competition (as a verb) will do what it does best - make the product offering better and cheaper. Next step for electric cars would be to address issues for non-home-owners (like me) and consequently can't find a convenient way to charge up an electric car. Hot swappable batteries come to mind.
  - cogman10 7y ago
    I don't think that will ever really be a thing. The problem with hot swap batteries is that you are trading a battery of unknown quality for something else. Imagine swapping in a 10 yo battery for brand new battery. That would kind of suck. The thing that will probably make things more tenable for non-home owners will be bigger battery densities. If you get 500 miles of range on a charge, then stopping by a fast charger once or twice a week wouldn't really be all that big of an issue. You don't even have to go to 100%, just enough to cover a week's worth of commuting. The other thing that would make this better is a bigger source of public L2 or even L1 chargers.
    - sh87 7y ago
      Well there are ways to make a battery trade work but in this case Yes I agree, A wider network of L1/L2 chargers seems economically profitable over time and realistic. But unless a reliable charger is at walking distance from my apartment, no electric car is going to work out for me.
      - cogman10 7y ago
        10 minutes of charging on a fast charger can give you 56 miles of range (assuming 100kW charge rate, 300 Wh/mi). You don't have to park your car for hours or walk. Assuming a fast charger is enroute. Ideally, you'd pair shopping with charging, in that case electrify America chargers are often located in Walmart parking lots. L1 and L2 chargers are more ideal for work or home parking. They'd be better for your battery in the long run, but a fast charger would do in the short run.
      - 205guy 7y ago
        If you commute by car, what about being able to charge where you work (or park for work)? I think that's even more necessary than apartment or street charging. The car is just sitting there and the daylight hours are best for solar electricity on the grid, so it's win-win. You can even take a work break to move your car so the chargers are fully utilized by other EV commuters.
  - 7y ago
- clouddrover 7y ago
  > they also have to find some way they can be better with a public charging network that is 10 years behind what Tesla currently has. Ionity's chargers are better than what Tesla has. Ionity's chargers can deliver 350kw and can charge any EV. Similarly for Electrify America's chargers. Repsol is delivering 400 kw chargers in Spain: https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1125436_the-most-powerful-dc-charging-station-in-europe-for-cars-can-deliver-400-kw https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1125436_the-most-powerf... You need to get out of the mindset of a propriety charging network. Ionity, FastNed, Repsol, Allego, etc. are building chargers based on the CCS standard and any EV that can use CCS can charge at them. You can fuel your ICE car at any fuel station and you should be able to charge your EV at any charging station, regardless of the brand of the charger or the car.
  - cogman10 7y ago
    So, honestly, I really REALLY wish tesla would switch everything over to CCS (or at least provide CCS adapters). That being said, it has far less to do with charge rate and far more to do with charger coverage. https://www.plugshare.com/ https://www.plugshare.com/ If you compare CCS to Tesla supercharger, You'll see big empty spaces where there are no CCS chargers That's what I mean when I say "It's better" not that they have faster charge rates, but rather their coverage is more complete. You'll often find supercharger locations will have 10 stalls for charging whereas the CCS charge stations will have 2 or 3. As more electric cars become more prevalent, that's going to be a big problem for these public networks. But, as a side note, even supporting up to 400kW doesn't really mean anything if the car can only accept 100kW. AFAIK, most cars (tesla included) are basically limited to a 1C charge rate. But, as far as capacity goes, no car (AFAIK) has surpassed tesla. Which means that 400kW is basically something you won't see until cars with 200 or 300 kWh batteries exist. This is similar to how Tesla's 250 kW charger will only charge at that rate for about 10 to 15 minutes when the battery is at around 10->15% full.
    - clouddrover 7y ago
      > So, honestly, I really REALLY wish tesla would switch everything over to CCS (or at least provide CCS adapters). They have in Europe, but they still refuse to allow other EVs to charge at their chargers: https://insideevs.com/news/343728/most-tesla-superchargers-now-retrofitted-with-ccs-plugs-in-europe-video/ https://insideevs.com/news/343728/most-tesla-superchargers-n... > That's what I mean when I say "It's better" not that they have faster charge rates, but rather their coverage is more complete. More companies building more chargers on a common standard will out-build a single company building a proprietary network. The CCS networks are not 10 years behind. > This is similar to how Tesla's 250 kW charger will only charge at that rate for about 10 to 15 minutes when the battery is at around 10->15% full. The Porsche Taycan is built on an 800 volt platform and can charge at 270 kw to about 30% state of charge. Hyundai's cars will be built on an 800 volt platform from 2021, so they may well end up with a similar charge curve to the Taycan's.
- erikpukinskis 7y ago
  I agree with everything you said but this: > You have to be better than Tesla If that were true, Tesla’s stock price would be higher, because realistically no one is going to get there at Tesla’s price points. But I don’t think they have to. The other automakers just have to be comparable to a Tesla. They are already superb at making mediocre cars seem like great cars to buyers. That won’t be a problem. That’s why the markets haven’t trashed the other companies. They know in the 11th hour Ford can throw a third-party electric drivetrain in a F-350, spin some hype and sell vehicles on brand loyalty. Whether Ford can a) meet the basic performance spec, b) secure enough battery supply, and c) get dealers to sell them during an awkward ramp... now that’s a question. I think 9 out of 10 of the legacy automakers are a write off at this point. They’re not investing in EVs because it’s wasted money. They’re going bankrupt either way so their only goal is to try to get one more year of ICE sales. That’s a lot of money so it’s as good a place to focus as any. Executives will do OK if they succeed. Pensioners (both inside the companies and those whose pensions are publicly invested) will be fucked.
  - cogman10 7y ago
    I should clarify. A new, no-name car company must be better than Tesla. I agree completely that established car companies like Ford need to only be as-good-as (or even slightly worse) in order to really take a bite out of their market share. Dyson, however, needs to make a car that is better than a Tesla in order to compete. That is, it has to have the same range or more, a nice interior, and a price point at or lower than what Tesla currently offers. Established companies can get by with just one or 2 of the above (probably at least 2 to be honest as most have at least one of those). The big thing holding back established companies, IMO, is that they really just aren't taking electric cars seriously. It feels like they are making them more to appease federal regulation and less because they care about a good product.
reitzensteinm 7y ago
I'm pretty bearish on Tesla, but even if were to fail nothing would take away from their improbable rise. Anyone that fails to be impressed by at least some aspects of Tesla is not objective and can be safely ignored.
sunstone 7y ago
And almost more importantly, forced the rest of the industry to stop sitting on their oil barrel and get to work making over their lineup as electrics.

by jsight 7y ago

cogman10 7y ago

And more. Tesla didn't just make "The" electric car, they made a charging network better than pretty much anything else out there. At this point other contenders are simply to late to the game. Tesla fundamentally changed the market and they have established themselves in a way that will be hard for competitors to topple. After all, when Tesla pushed out the X/S, what was the competition doing? Mostly just retrofitting batteries and engines as cheap as possible on current frames. Tesla made a car that could be a universal car while everyone else was focused on short range secondary commuters. Now, competition not only has to compete with the fact that Tesla is what people think of when they think "Next green car" they also have to find some way they can be better with a public charging network that is 10 years behind what Tesla currently has. It isn't enough to push out a car that can go 200 miles on batteries alone anymore. You have to be better than Tesla, and that is a really high bar. So, the real question is "What's next for tesla" can they continue to be the best in class? Will they be upstaged by the current old guard? Who knows? One thing is for sure, car companies are going to need to evolve to compete with Tesla's offerings.

sh87 7y ago
I hope Competition (as a verb) will do what it does best - make the product offering better and cheaper. Next step for electric cars would be to address issues for non-home-owners (like me) and consequently can't find a convenient way to charge up an electric car. Hot swappable batteries come to mind.
- cogman10 7y ago
  I don't think that will ever really be a thing. The problem with hot swap batteries is that you are trading a battery of unknown quality for something else. Imagine swapping in a 10 yo battery for brand new battery. That would kind of suck. The thing that will probably make things more tenable for non-home owners will be bigger battery densities. If you get 500 miles of range on a charge, then stopping by a fast charger once or twice a week wouldn't really be all that big of an issue. You don't even have to go to 100%, just enough to cover a week's worth of commuting. The other thing that would make this better is a bigger source of public L2 or even L1 chargers.
  - sh87 7y ago
    Well there are ways to make a battery trade work but in this case Yes I agree, A wider network of L1/L2 chargers seems economically profitable over time and realistic. But unless a reliable charger is at walking distance from my apartment, no electric car is going to work out for me.
    - cogman10 7y ago
      10 minutes of charging on a fast charger can give you 56 miles of range (assuming 100kW charge rate, 300 Wh/mi). You don't have to park your car for hours or walk. Assuming a fast charger is enroute. Ideally, you'd pair shopping with charging, in that case electrify America chargers are often located in Walmart parking lots. L1 and L2 chargers are more ideal for work or home parking. They'd be better for your battery in the long run, but a fast charger would do in the short run.
    - 205guy 7y ago
      If you commute by car, what about being able to charge where you work (or park for work)? I think that's even more necessary than apartment or street charging. The car is just sitting there and the daylight hours are best for solar electricity on the grid, so it's win-win. You can even take a work break to move your car so the chargers are fully utilized by other EV commuters.
- 7y ago
clouddrover 7y ago
> they also have to find some way they can be better with a public charging network that is 10 years behind what Tesla currently has. Ionity's chargers are better than what Tesla has. Ionity's chargers can deliver 350kw and can charge any EV. Similarly for Electrify America's chargers. Repsol is delivering 400 kw chargers in Spain: https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1125436_the-most-powerful-dc-charging-station-in-europe-for-cars-can-deliver-400-kw https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1125436_the-most-powerf... You need to get out of the mindset of a propriety charging network. Ionity, FastNed, Repsol, Allego, etc. are building chargers based on the CCS standard and any EV that can use CCS can charge at them. You can fuel your ICE car at any fuel station and you should be able to charge your EV at any charging station, regardless of the brand of the charger or the car.
- cogman10 7y ago
  So, honestly, I really REALLY wish tesla would switch everything over to CCS (or at least provide CCS adapters). That being said, it has far less to do with charge rate and far more to do with charger coverage. https://www.plugshare.com/ https://www.plugshare.com/ If you compare CCS to Tesla supercharger, You'll see big empty spaces where there are no CCS chargers That's what I mean when I say "It's better" not that they have faster charge rates, but rather their coverage is more complete. You'll often find supercharger locations will have 10 stalls for charging whereas the CCS charge stations will have 2 or 3. As more electric cars become more prevalent, that's going to be a big problem for these public networks. But, as a side note, even supporting up to 400kW doesn't really mean anything if the car can only accept 100kW. AFAIK, most cars (tesla included) are basically limited to a 1C charge rate. But, as far as capacity goes, no car (AFAIK) has surpassed tesla. Which means that 400kW is basically something you won't see until cars with 200 or 300 kWh batteries exist. This is similar to how Tesla's 250 kW charger will only charge at that rate for about 10 to 15 minutes when the battery is at around 10->15% full.
  - clouddrover 7y ago
    > So, honestly, I really REALLY wish tesla would switch everything over to CCS (or at least provide CCS adapters). They have in Europe, but they still refuse to allow other EVs to charge at their chargers: https://insideevs.com/news/343728/most-tesla-superchargers-now-retrofitted-with-ccs-plugs-in-europe-video/ https://insideevs.com/news/343728/most-tesla-superchargers-n... > That's what I mean when I say "It's better" not that they have faster charge rates, but rather their coverage is more complete. More companies building more chargers on a common standard will out-build a single company building a proprietary network. The CCS networks are not 10 years behind. > This is similar to how Tesla's 250 kW charger will only charge at that rate for about 10 to 15 minutes when the battery is at around 10->15% full. The Porsche Taycan is built on an 800 volt platform and can charge at 270 kw to about 30% state of charge. Hyundai's cars will be built on an 800 volt platform from 2021, so they may well end up with a similar charge curve to the Taycan's.
erikpukinskis 7y ago
I agree with everything you said but this: > You have to be better than Tesla If that were true, Tesla’s stock price would be higher, because realistically no one is going to get there at Tesla’s price points. But I don’t think they have to. The other automakers just have to be comparable to a Tesla. They are already superb at making mediocre cars seem like great cars to buyers. That won’t be a problem. That’s why the markets haven’t trashed the other companies. They know in the 11th hour Ford can throw a third-party electric drivetrain in a F-350, spin some hype and sell vehicles on brand loyalty. Whether Ford can a) meet the basic performance spec, b) secure enough battery supply, and c) get dealers to sell them during an awkward ramp... now that’s a question. I think 9 out of 10 of the legacy automakers are a write off at this point. They’re not investing in EVs because it’s wasted money. They’re going bankrupt either way so their only goal is to try to get one more year of ICE sales. That’s a lot of money so it’s as good a place to focus as any. Executives will do OK if they succeed. Pensioners (both inside the companies and those whose pensions are publicly invested) will be fucked.
- cogman10 7y ago
  I should clarify. A new, no-name car company must be better than Tesla. I agree completely that established car companies like Ford need to only be as-good-as (or even slightly worse) in order to really take a bite out of their market share. Dyson, however, needs to make a car that is better than a Tesla in order to compete. That is, it has to have the same range or more, a nice interior, and a price point at or lower than what Tesla currently offers. Established companies can get by with just one or 2 of the above (probably at least 2 to be honest as most have at least one of those). The big thing holding back established companies, IMO, is that they really just aren't taking electric cars seriously. It feels like they are making them more to appease federal regulation and less because they care about a good product.

reitzensteinm 7y ago

I'm pretty bearish on Tesla, but even if were to fail nothing would take away from their improbable rise. Anyone that fails to be impressed by at least some aspects of Tesla is not objective and can be safely ignored.

sunstone 7y ago

And almost more importantly, forced the rest of the industry to stop sitting on their oil barrel and get to work making over their lineup as electrics.