> in the post-mortem of the models, what would we likely say had gone wrong I think it's a really interesting question, even though on a charged topic and diff

> in the post-mortem of the models, what would we likely say had gone wrong I think it's a really interesting question, even though on a charged topic and difficult to forecast. Balance of feedback systems? There are so many feedback systems here, positive and negative all overlapping. Even if you are 95% sure you have each one figured out, after a little over a dozen factors that error compounds and you're at around 50/50 of getting something wrong. Of course, could be wrong in the other direction too... that's why errors are bars not arrows. Note: Feedback systems here are not under-studied, they're just hard to model. This isn't an example of a black swan that would devastate the discipline, if that's what you were looking for. Those might be... supervolcano? Nuclear war? Atmospheric scrubbing technology breakthrough? Even those have calculable effects. If there's some radical unpredicted shift I can't imagine it being along the lines of "water vapor and CO2 don't actually warm things," that's just too well confirmed.