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Some day we'll have central AI-planned economies, and we'll laugh at our "free markets" of olde. Computers will allocate capital far better than humans can.

Synaesthesia 7y ago
We’ll hand over economic decision making to a computer? Doubt it
- InvisibleCities 7y ago
  You say that as if you think we will have a choice in that matter. A centrally planned economy is the kind of numerical optimization problem that computers are far better at solving than humans are. Eventually, some country will implement an AI-driven centrally planned economy that will function far more efficiently than our current market-driven model, at which point everyone else will either out-competed by this new more efficient system, or adopt something similar.
  - ryanwaggoner 7y ago
    Eventually, some country will implement an AI-driven centrally planned economy that will function far more efficiently than our current market-driven model Your core assumption is that it's possible for an AI-driven centrally planned economy to be "far more efficient" than a market economy. There are two problems here: getting your AI the information they need to make the right decisions, and the political risks of implementing a perfectly efficient centrally planned economy, which will by necessity cause all kinds of suffering and death as a result of its allocation decisions (which, by the way, will probably be guided by value judgments made by humans, but I digress). Both of these are huge challenges, and it's not clear to me that either of them will be easier to accomplish with a AI-driven planned economy vs. a pure market economy (which also has its problems, I know!). They're ultimately just two different kinds of algorithms, and it's unclear to me that the top-down centrally planned approach is necessarily better, even given general AI and tons of input information.
- starpilot 7y ago
  "We'll hand basic trading decisions to a microcomputer? Doubt it." - 1980s wall street. Increasingly, the whole world is algorithmically analyzed and driven. Decisions to hire and fire people, or whether to invest, or what type of product to build. College students are following this trend by majoring in CS and data science, while liberal arts departments nationwide are downsizing. It's only a matter of time before these algos are unified and all human decisions take a backseat to the decisions of machines.
- downrightmike 7y ago
  Billionaires can't even handle having to hear about a little girl who doesn't want the planet to die.
Litmus2336 7y ago
How will an AI decide what the optimal allocation of food for the hungry is, how many computers everyone needs, and whether we should build basketball courts or if it's just a waste of time? Those are all value judgements, and capital allocation is a value judgement too. I don't think an AI can optimally make decisions like that without the input of people. And an economy based on the input of people is still a free market. Perhaps with an AI in control and personal input we could make a much more democratic market though, which would be interesting.
anonuser123456 7y ago
Unless those machines are omnicient, I don't see how they solve the local knowledge problem.

Synaesthesia 7y ago

We’ll hand over economic decision making to a computer? Doubt it

InvisibleCities 7y ago
You say that as if you think we will have a choice in that matter. A centrally planned economy is the kind of numerical optimization problem that computers are far better at solving than humans are. Eventually, some country will implement an AI-driven centrally planned economy that will function far more efficiently than our current market-driven model, at which point everyone else will either out-competed by this new more efficient system, or adopt something similar.
- ryanwaggoner 7y ago
  Eventually, some country will implement an AI-driven centrally planned economy that will function far more efficiently than our current market-driven model Your core assumption is that it's possible for an AI-driven centrally planned economy to be "far more efficient" than a market economy. There are two problems here: getting your AI the information they need to make the right decisions, and the political risks of implementing a perfectly efficient centrally planned economy, which will by necessity cause all kinds of suffering and death as a result of its allocation decisions (which, by the way, will probably be guided by value judgments made by humans, but I digress). Both of these are huge challenges, and it's not clear to me that either of them will be easier to accomplish with a AI-driven planned economy vs. a pure market economy (which also has its problems, I know!). They're ultimately just two different kinds of algorithms, and it's unclear to me that the top-down centrally planned approach is necessarily better, even given general AI and tons of input information.
starpilot 7y ago
"We'll hand basic trading decisions to a microcomputer? Doubt it." - 1980s wall street. Increasingly, the whole world is algorithmically analyzed and driven. Decisions to hire and fire people, or whether to invest, or what type of product to build. College students are following this trend by majoring in CS and data science, while liberal arts departments nationwide are downsizing. It's only a matter of time before these algos are unified and all human decisions take a backseat to the decisions of machines.
downrightmike 7y ago
Billionaires can't even handle having to hear about a little girl who doesn't want the planet to die.

Litmus2336 7y ago

How will an AI decide what the optimal allocation of food for the hungry is, how many computers everyone needs, and whether we should build basketball courts or if it's just a waste of time? Those are all value judgements, and capital allocation is a value judgement too. I don't think an AI can optimally make decisions like that without the input of people. And an economy based on the input of people is still a free market. Perhaps with an AI in control and personal input we could make a much more democratic market though, which would be interesting.

anonuser123456 7y ago

Unless those machines are omnicient, I don't see how they solve the local knowledge problem.