The only people who will be surprised by this are people who do not understand probability. Nobody expects analysts to be right every time, and nobody expects

The only people who will be surprised by this are people who do not understand probability. Nobody expects analysts to be right every time, and nobody expects individuals to be wrong every time. You can't extrapolate a general principle from a single datum. Now, if this were happening consistently -- amateurs were consistently more accurate than professionals -- then I would be surprised. I would draw the conclusion that the professionals had some other goal than accurate predictions, though, rather than that they were incompetent.