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You're not entirely wrong, but I do think it's a gigantic oversimplification to only look at the value of Hong Kong in terms of percentage of GDP. While I do ag

by hnarn 7y ago

You're not entirely wrong, but I do think it's a gigantic oversimplification to only look at the value of Hong Kong in terms of percentage of GDP. While I do agree that a crackdown is likely, I also think the consequences to China's economy, both from direct factors but also from indirect factors that are hard to predict, may be significant in doing so. At the end of the day, it's my opinion that this struggle is from the CCP side of things not a rational one. They are willing to sacrifice "rational" values for the sake of things like honor and saving face, and I think (and to some extent, hope) that there is a risk that type of decision making will cause a downward spiral for the regime. I can't remember who made this point, but there's a historical anecdote about how "totalitarian regimes are suicidal". Sooner or later the fascist cocktail that has fueled economic growth explodes into unbearable oppression, unsustainable expansion, economically questionable decisions, or all of the above. I've heard the point many times that just like the Roman Empire was always just "one missed grain shipment away from a revolution", the only thing really standing between the CCP and a popular revolt is the downturn of the economy. The only reason people are tolerating the suffocating oppression of the state is because of tangible rewards.

Aperocky 7y ago
> Suffocating oppression If you’ve been to China, this is certainly not what the general population are feeling. There are enough entertainment and economic pressure to keep most everyone busy. And social injustice are _voiced_ and _acted upon_. As very few of those involve the legitimacy of whole CCP anyways, the lower level officials are mostly threading on thin ice. I think there’s a huge gap between the perceived conditions in China vs the actual sentiment in China, and western media have only been widening it.
- hnarn 7y ago
  > this is certainly not what the general population are feeling Rosa Luxemburg said that "those who do not move, do not notice their chains". Of course most people in mainland China do not feel anything close to a "suffocating oppression" because the mere thought of disobedience may never have occurred to them. To insinuate that the reason for this is the fact that "social injustice" is "voiced and acted upon" is nothing short of insulting. Most people in China would want more freedom, because they are human and humans do: but most of them are also raised in a system that equates the communist party with stability, and most people believe the (of course, to some extent correct) propaganda that disobedience would cause chaos. That is not to say that the CCP is in power due to wide popular support, they are in power due to wide popular apathy.
  - Aperocky 7y ago
    > Most people in China would want more freedom Right there after: 1. Getting a stable job 2. Starting a family. 3. Worry about children's education 4. Worrying about rent raising and loathing about crowded subways. 5. Pork price. 6. Popular pop star getting divorced. I think you're right with your conclusion though, there _is_ widespread apathy for political activism. In no small part due to seeing how UK and US are being ran, the whole Brexit saga has been a laughingstock in China and good stuff just keep coming. Now, does anyone like getting an emperor? No, but at least the alternatives are not as good (as once thought).

by hnarn 7y ago

Aperocky 7y ago

> Suffocating oppression If you’ve been to China, this is certainly not what the general population are feeling. There are enough entertainment and economic pressure to keep most everyone busy. And social injustice are _voiced_ and _acted upon_. As very few of those involve the legitimacy of whole CCP anyways, the lower level officials are mostly threading on thin ice. I think there’s a huge gap between the perceived conditions in China vs the actual sentiment in China, and western media have only been widening it.

hnarn 7y ago
> this is certainly not what the general population are feeling Rosa Luxemburg said that "those who do not move, do not notice their chains". Of course most people in mainland China do not feel anything close to a "suffocating oppression" because the mere thought of disobedience may never have occurred to them. To insinuate that the reason for this is the fact that "social injustice" is "voiced and acted upon" is nothing short of insulting. Most people in China would want more freedom, because they are human and humans do: but most of them are also raised in a system that equates the communist party with stability, and most people believe the (of course, to some extent correct) propaganda that disobedience would cause chaos. That is not to say that the CCP is in power due to wide popular support, they are in power due to wide popular apathy.
- Aperocky 7y ago
  > Most people in China would want more freedom Right there after: 1. Getting a stable job 2. Starting a family. 3. Worry about children's education 4. Worrying about rent raising and loathing about crowded subways. 5. Pork price. 6. Popular pop star getting divorced. I think you're right with your conclusion though, there _is_ widespread apathy for political activism. In no small part due to seeing how UK and US are being ran, the whole Brexit saga has been a laughingstock in China and good stuff just keep coming. Now, does anyone like getting an emperor? No, but at least the alternatives are not as good (as once thought).