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I don't see how these protests will be successful. I expect they will eventually lose and either fall in line or be replaced. I can't help but wonder how thing

I don't see how these protests will be successful. I expect they will eventually lose and either fall in line or be replaced. I can't help but wonder how things would be different if the Hong Kong population was armed like Americans.

adrr 7y ago
Light arms vs a modern arms(tanks,planes,helicopters) is just suicide.
- duaoebg 7y ago
  It changes the equation enough to make it not worth attacking. Also allows you to hold out long enough to import more weaponry from sympathetic regimes. Plus drone based weapons are cheap and effective.
- CharlesColeman 7y ago
  > Light arms vs a modern arms(tanks,planes,helicopters) is just suicide. No, that's wrong. Conflicts like the one in Afghanistan show they can be effective against a well-equipped modern army, you just need to deploy them with the right (asymmetric) tactics.
  - lm28469 7y ago
    Meh, it's like saying New York could fight off the entire US army by using asymmetrical tactics. US invading Vietnam or Afghanistan isn't exactly the same: China is literally surrounding HK and has one of strongest army in the world. They could obliterate HK in a few hours. The only way I see it ending well is if somehow the military/police side with HK and China decide that it isn't worth the trouble. Even if China goes full berserk on HK I don't see the EU or US doing more than economic sanctions, and we all know this is as bad for US as it is for them.
    - CharlesColeman 7y ago
      > They could obliterate HK in a few hours. If the population of HK was sufficiently armed and motivated, the only way the PLA could do that "in a few hours" is with nukes. But you make a good point: asymmetric tactics can be countered with indiscriminate extermination. However the diplomatic fallout of such tactics is likely unacceptable, even to the PRC.
      - chongli 7y ago
        the only way the PLA could do that "in a few hours" is with nukes No, they could obliterate HK with conventional artillery. But that would be a huge mistake, to say the least.
    - toast0 7y ago
      Armed resistance escalates the conflict. This can be a win for the resistance because the opponent may not be willing to bring artillery, or to deny the opponent unsullied spoils.
  - nostrademons 7y ago
    Afghan guerillas are using a number of modern arms (RPGs, Stingers) as well, plus IEDs. Helicopters don't get downed by rifles.
ulzeraj 7y ago
Because of facial identification and other kinds of vigilance implemented these protesters probably can’t afford to go back to their daily lives therefore I think they will just keep fighting.

adrr 7y ago

Light arms vs a modern arms(tanks,planes,helicopters) is just suicide.

duaoebg 7y ago
It changes the equation enough to make it not worth attacking. Also allows you to hold out long enough to import more weaponry from sympathetic regimes. Plus drone based weapons are cheap and effective.
CharlesColeman 7y ago
> Light arms vs a modern arms(tanks,planes,helicopters) is just suicide. No, that's wrong. Conflicts like the one in Afghanistan show they can be effective against a well-equipped modern army, you just need to deploy them with the right (asymmetric) tactics.
- lm28469 7y ago
  Meh, it's like saying New York could fight off the entire US army by using asymmetrical tactics. US invading Vietnam or Afghanistan isn't exactly the same: China is literally surrounding HK and has one of strongest army in the world. They could obliterate HK in a few hours. The only way I see it ending well is if somehow the military/police side with HK and China decide that it isn't worth the trouble. Even if China goes full berserk on HK I don't see the EU or US doing more than economic sanctions, and we all know this is as bad for US as it is for them.
  - CharlesColeman 7y ago
    > They could obliterate HK in a few hours. If the population of HK was sufficiently armed and motivated, the only way the PLA could do that "in a few hours" is with nukes. But you make a good point: asymmetric tactics can be countered with indiscriminate extermination. However the diplomatic fallout of such tactics is likely unacceptable, even to the PRC.
    - chongli 7y ago
      the only way the PLA could do that "in a few hours" is with nukes No, they could obliterate HK with conventional artillery. But that would be a huge mistake, to say the least.
  - toast0 7y ago
    Armed resistance escalates the conflict. This can be a win for the resistance because the opponent may not be willing to bring artillery, or to deny the opponent unsullied spoils.
- nostrademons 7y ago
  Afghan guerillas are using a number of modern arms (RPGs, Stingers) as well, plus IEDs. Helicopters don't get downed by rifles.

ulzeraj 7y ago

Because of facial identification and other kinds of vigilance implemented these protesters probably can’t afford to go back to their daily lives therefore I think they will just keep fighting.