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What does the endgame look like here? Does anyone have a realistic prediction? I root for these people because I can just begin to imagine my city being taken

by Pigo 7y ago

What does the endgame look like here? Does anyone have a realistic prediction? I root for these people because I can just begin to imagine my city being taken over by a country that would just disappear me if I become inconvenient. But does it really have to come to a Braveheart style conclusion?

save_ferris 7y ago
Unlikely, as such an ending would probably have catastrophic consequences for Chinese trade and international relations. Tiananmen Square set Chinese diplomatic relations back well over a decade, and with their economy showing signs of a possible slowdown, they’re particularly conscious of the consequences that any militaristic response would have.
- Pigo 7y ago
  So he's most likely talking tough with a statement like this? Just seems worrisome to hear him talking about grinding up bones.
- monocasa 7y ago
  On the other side, while trying to force their way into the South China Sea, and still pretending that they own Taiwan, not being able to hold or control territory that everyone agrees is their's dramatically weakens their position on the global stage, and they can't really let the HKers win this one.
- lm28469 7y ago
  > for Chinese trade and international relations. It's a full blown military state guilty of several crimes against humanity, we have proof of muslim detention camps, sterilisation campaigns, destruction of churches, &c... doesn't look like anyone care as long as they build iphones and cpus. I doubt HK would be the last straw.
flag23147 7y ago
I predict that more likely the protests will subside over time without military intervention from the mainland. In Macau, another Chinese city under One Country Two Systems, people are generally very happy with the present political arrangement. Macau has an advanced economy with one of the highest GDP per capita in the world today. It is also a free and democratic society. Both economically and politically, China prefers HK to be like Macau at a larger scale (HK has over 10x population). The current situation seems to be necessary pains of growing up.
- eej71 7y ago
  I suspect one key difference is that the educational systems (HK vs. Macau) impart different intellectual values. I would expect that those raised in the HK education system have internalized the values of the English enlightenment. Once received, those values are not voluntarily given back.
- Jamwinner 7y ago
  This is untrue in my experince, why dod you create a throwaway to play shill for china?
keanzu 7y ago
The Chinese government effectively has infinite resources and unlimited time. They will proceed with slow divide and conquer, jailing people one by one until either the protestors give up or turn violent. If the protestors can be provoked to violence then the mainland government can respond in kind. China either wins slowly or quickly. There's no scenario where they don't win.
- carapace 7y ago
  I once heard that, when Vietnam and China were at war, the Chinese went to the Vietnamese and said, "When you grind a pebble against a boulder which one disappears first?" The end result here depends on a lot of factors, but as it stands the CCP has the long-term advantage. The "super camera"[1] along with the ban on face masks is just one obvious vector for the techno-authoritarians to win by attrition. They can analyze the data, find the key nodes (people!) in the graph, and make them disappear. AFAICT, there is no long-term defense against ubiquitous surveillance. Technology makes it possible and politics and economics drive it to the limit (e.g. Vernor Vinge's "locator dust".[2]) From this POV, the crucial question is whether the administrators of the system are themselves subjected to it. It's a global problem. Authoritarianism anywhere threatens you, today, wherever you are. The inexorable logic of it means there can be no stable equilibrium. Notice how the CCP is already working to control people outside the bounds of China? That's not going to stop. The people of HK are the "tip of the spear" in the war between free humans and dictators. If Xi really was Papa Smurf [3] the people of Hong Kong wouldn't be so scared to be a part of his village, eh? [1] "China's super camera can pinpoint specific targets among of thousands of people" (abc.net.au) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21100048 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21100048 [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smartdust https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smartdust [3] The Smurfs are Communist Propaganda!? https://www.buzzfeed.com/richmonahan/13-reasons-why-the-smurfs-is-communist-propagand-1096m https://www.buzzfeed.com/richmonahan/13-reasons-why-the-smur...
  - nyxtom 7y ago
    Noting [1], imagine when this kind of resolution will be possible from simply deploying a range of satellites. http://thescienceexplorer.com/technology/new-satellites-will-detect-your-face-and-phone-space http://thescienceexplorer.com/technology/new-satellites-will...

by Pigo 7y ago

save_ferris 7y ago

Unlikely, as such an ending would probably have catastrophic consequences for Chinese trade and international relations. Tiananmen Square set Chinese diplomatic relations back well over a decade, and with their economy showing signs of a possible slowdown, they’re particularly conscious of the consequences that any militaristic response would have.

Pigo 7y ago
So he's most likely talking tough with a statement like this? Just seems worrisome to hear him talking about grinding up bones.
monocasa 7y ago
On the other side, while trying to force their way into the South China Sea, and still pretending that they own Taiwan, not being able to hold or control territory that everyone agrees is their's dramatically weakens their position on the global stage, and they can't really let the HKers win this one.
lm28469 7y ago
> for Chinese trade and international relations. It's a full blown military state guilty of several crimes against humanity, we have proof of muslim detention camps, sterilisation campaigns, destruction of churches, &c... doesn't look like anyone care as long as they build iphones and cpus. I doubt HK would be the last straw.

flag23147 7y ago

I predict that more likely the protests will subside over time without military intervention from the mainland. In Macau, another Chinese city under One Country Two Systems, people are generally very happy with the present political arrangement. Macau has an advanced economy with one of the highest GDP per capita in the world today. It is also a free and democratic society. Both economically and politically, China prefers HK to be like Macau at a larger scale (HK has over 10x population). The current situation seems to be necessary pains of growing up.

eej71 7y ago
I suspect one key difference is that the educational systems (HK vs. Macau) impart different intellectual values. I would expect that those raised in the HK education system have internalized the values of the English enlightenment. Once received, those values are not voluntarily given back.
Jamwinner 7y ago
This is untrue in my experince, why dod you create a throwaway to play shill for china?

keanzu 7y ago

The Chinese government effectively has infinite resources and unlimited time. They will proceed with slow divide and conquer, jailing people one by one until either the protestors give up or turn violent. If the protestors can be provoked to violence then the mainland government can respond in kind. China either wins slowly or quickly. There's no scenario where they don't win.

carapace 7y ago
I once heard that, when Vietnam and China were at war, the Chinese went to the Vietnamese and said, "When you grind a pebble against a boulder which one disappears first?" The end result here depends on a lot of factors, but as it stands the CCP has the long-term advantage. The "super camera"[1] along with the ban on face masks is just one obvious vector for the techno-authoritarians to win by attrition. They can analyze the data, find the key nodes (people!) in the graph, and make them disappear. AFAICT, there is no long-term defense against ubiquitous surveillance. Technology makes it possible and politics and economics drive it to the limit (e.g. Vernor Vinge's "locator dust".[2]) From this POV, the crucial question is whether the administrators of the system are themselves subjected to it. It's a global problem. Authoritarianism anywhere threatens you, today, wherever you are. The inexorable logic of it means there can be no stable equilibrium. Notice how the CCP is already working to control people outside the bounds of China? That's not going to stop. The people of HK are the "tip of the spear" in the war between free humans and dictators. If Xi really was Papa Smurf [3] the people of Hong Kong wouldn't be so scared to be a part of his village, eh? [1] "China's super camera can pinpoint specific targets among of thousands of people" (abc.net.au) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21100048 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21100048 [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smartdust https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smartdust [3] The Smurfs are Communist Propaganda!? https://www.buzzfeed.com/richmonahan/13-reasons-why-the-smurfs-is-communist-propagand-1096m https://www.buzzfeed.com/richmonahan/13-reasons-why-the-smur...
- nyxtom 7y ago
  Noting [1], imagine when this kind of resolution will be possible from simply deploying a range of satellites. http://thescienceexplorer.com/technology/new-satellites-will-detect-your-face-and-phone-space http://thescienceexplorer.com/technology/new-satellites-will...